Plans to scrap the 2031 census in England and Wales are expected to be overturned after a backlash from senior statisticians over proposals to replace it with a patchwork of alternative data sources.
The UK government said in 2014 that its “ambition” was to abolish the mandatory national survey after 2021 and instead rely on piecing together “administrative data” collected by other bodies and surveys. Apart from a wartime gap in 1941, a census has been conducted every 10 years in Britain since 1801.
Those in favour of scrapping the census argue that the value of a once-a-decade snapshot is limited when so much real-time data is routinely collected by public sector bodies such as the NHS, HMRC or in school enrolment.
“Based on our work to date … we can move beyond the decade-long cycle of population statistics that has dominated for centuries,” the then national statistician, Prof Ian Diamond, said in 2023.
However, the proposal concerned statistical bodies and senior statisticians, who queried the feasibility and cost of patching together datasets that may have been collected in widely different ways.
The Royal Statistical Society, while broadly supportive of the principle, said it had concerns over how reliably other bodies would share information and how comprehensive a piecemeal approach would be.
In addition, 60 academics and leading statisticians published an open letter warning that an “untested patchwork” of other sources “risks an increasingly fragmented and inaccurate data landscape”, describing the government’s plans as “wishful thinking”.
The UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), the government body that oversees official data collection, has now recommended that the England and Wales census goes ahead in 2031 as planned.
While acknowledging that the final decision rests with ministers, acting national statistician, Emma Rourke, said on Tuesday: “It has been clear from consultation and engagement that the decennial census, asked of the whole population, remains of enormous value for informing the most important decisions facing our country.”
Alice Sullivan, professor of sociology at UCL’s social research institute, said: “I am absolutely delighted that the census has been saved. National census data is a foundational part of our data infrastructure, as it furnishes the benchmark against which we judge whether other data sources, such as surveys, are representative.
“Without a trusted picture of the population, we would have moved closer to a post-truth world of untestable ‘alternative facts’.”
Jane Frost, the CEO of the Market Research Society – the UK’s regulator and trade body for the sector – said researchers would “breathe a collective sigh of relief” at the UKSA’s recommendations.
“Our £9bn market and social research sector in the UK has long relied on the survey’s rich, consistent and reliable data to provide businesses and policymakers with all-important insight on the British people, informing critical decisions across public and private sectors,” she said.
Statistics bodies in Scotland and Northern Ireland conduct their own censuses. The UKSA said the ONS was working with National Records of Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, “who are also advising their relevant ministers”.
