Oil prices inched higher on Thursday as investors entered a wait-and-watch mode ahead of talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later today.
Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday evening and is set to hold a series of meetings with Xi as he looks to secure economic gains and address key geopolitical issues including the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil price on May 14
Brent crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.12%, to $105.76 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 12 cents, or 0.12%, to $101.14 a barrel. Both benchmarks had settled lower on Wednesday amid concerns that further U.S. interest rate hikes could weigh on demand. Brent dropped more than $2 a barrel, while WTI lost over $1.
Although Trump has said he does not believe China’s support is necessary to end the conflict with Iran, he is still expected to seek Xi’s assistance in resolving the costly and politically unpopular war.
China remains the largest buyer of Iranian crude despite sanctions and pressure from the Trump administration. More than 80% of Iran’s oil shipments in 2025 were headed to China, with independent Chinese refiners continuing to purchase discounted sanctioned crude.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said the global oil market is now in “a race against time,” warning that the factors limiting a sharper rise in crude prices may weaken if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut into June.
Despite disruptions impacting nearly 1 billion barrels of oil supply, crude prices are still below the highs reached in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Analysts led by Martijn Rats said the market entered the current crisis with stronger supply buffers, while investors largely continue to believe the strait will eventually reopen.
Morgan Stanley added that higher U.S. crude exports and softer Chinese imports have so far helped shield the market from a deeper supply shock. However, the brokerage warned that a prolonged closure of Hormuz could once again tighten global supplies if disruptions continue beyond what either China or the United States can manage comfortably.
Haitong Futures said markets remain cautious and warned the ceasefire may only be temporary. The brokerage added that stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran could trigger another escalation, pushing oil prices even higher.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Monday that disruptions to shipments through Hormuz could delay stability returning to oil markets until 2027, potentially affecting around 100 million barrels of oil supply every week.
Nuvama Institutional Equities said an extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt nearly 20 million barrels per day of global crude flows. In such a scenario, the brokerage estimates oil prices could climb to between $110 and $150 per barrel.
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