Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi declared the U.S. job market is “weak and getting weaker,” delivering his warning after piecing together an analysis from private-sector data.
The assessment comes as the official September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) remains unreleased due to the federal government shutdown, creating what Zandi calls a “serious problem” for economic policymakers.
Not Having Economic Data Is A ‘Serious Problem’
In a series of posts on X, formerly Twitter, Zandi underscored the gravity of the data blackout. “There is no more important economic data, particularly now, when the job market is sputtering and the Federal Reserve is a few weeks from another meeting,” he wrote.
The lack of an official benchmark complicates the Fed’s ability to make informed decisions on interest rates. Zandi stated bluntly, “The bottom line is that not having the BLS jobs data is a serious problem for assessing the health of the economy and making good policy decisions.”
Alternative Data Suggests A Weakening Job Market
In place of the government report, Zandi turned to several alternative sources that he said were “admirably filling the information gap.”
He cited data from workforce analytics firm Revelio Labs, which indicated a modest 60,000 job gain, and payroll processor ADP, which showed an even smaller increase of 32,000 private jobs.
By combining these sources, Zandi painted a stark picture. “Averaging the Revelio and ADP employment estimates for September suggests that there was essentially no job growth during the month,” he explained.
See Also: Shutdown Blocks Jobs Data: Will The Fed Cut Rates In The Dark?
It Is Becoming Harder To Get A Job
Zandi further noted that other indicators support this view, including The Conference Board’s consumer survey, which shows it is becoming harder to get a job.
He also pointed out that the minimal job growth was concentrated in large healthcare companies. “Smaller companies are getting hit hardest by the tariffs and restrictive immigration policies,” he observed.
Ultimately, despite the limitations of the available data, Zandi’s conclusion was clear: “This data shows that the job market is weak and getting weaker.”
Price Action
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.32% at $671.38, while the QQQ advanced 0.61% to $606.83, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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