RECAP: Asian stocks rose yesterday while the US dollar held near a six-week high and oil prices rose, though conflicting messages on the Iran talks kept investors guessing and capped gains.
The Thai index moved sideways up on Friday, as investors opted to stay on the sidelines to await more positive updates from the Middle East over the weekend.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,509.26 and 1,542.25 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,538.67, up 1.4% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 57.69 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 2.14 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 1.12 billion and institutional investors at 432.58 million. Foreign investors were net sellers of 3.68 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: Iran is reviewing the latest US proposal to end the nearly three-month war, state media reported. President Donald Trump said he's willing to wait "a couple of days" for a response.
US House Republican leaders scrapped a vote to restrict the president's ability to conduct military strikes on Iran, after it became clear they lacked enough votes to defeat it.
The European Commission cut the euro zone 2026 growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2% as the war and energy shock take their toll.
Russian President Vladimir Putin left Beijing on Wednesday following a summit with President Xi Jinping with a stack of bilateral agreements -- but without the energy pipeline breakthrough Moscow was seeking.
Minutes of the April 28-29 Federal Reserve meeting showed a growing number of officials see the need for higher interest rates to contain inflationary pressures.
The US manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to a four-month high of 55.3, as businesses boosted inventories to guard against potential shortages and rising prices linked to the Mideast war.
Britain's inflation rate in April was lower than expected, slipping to 2.8% year-on-year from 3.3% in March, as an energy bill support package took effect to help ease the impact of high war-driven prices.
The UK government eased sanctions on imports of Russian jet fuel and diesel refined in third countries, defending the move as a way to keep fuel costs in check.
Iraq said it exported 10 million barrels of oil via the Strait of Hormuz in April, down from 93 million a month before the Iran war.
The US withdrew a record 17.8 million barrels of oil from its inventories in the week to May 15, the Energy Information Administration said, as the war has cut global supplies and raised demand for US oil products.
China's economy showed some weakness in April with retail sales slowing to 0.2% from a year ago, the weakest since late 2022, from 1.7% in March. Industrial output rose 4.1%, down from 5.7% in March.
Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate 50 basis points to 5.25%, the first hike since 2022, to support the rupiah which depreciated to a record low at 17,700 per dollar. The central bank has spent $10 billion this year to stabilise the currency.
Nvidia reported a record net profit of $58.3 billion for its fiscal first quarter, up 211% year-on-year amid surging AI demand. Revenue rose 85% to $81.6 billion.
Amazon announced a plan to invest $33 billion in cloud computing and AI infrastructure across Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand by 2039 to support growing business demand for digital technology.
The UK bank Standard Chartered announced plans to axe thousands of jobs by 2030 as AI replaces employees in a range of administrative roles.
Thailand's economy in the first quarter expanded by 2.8%, up from 2.5% in the final quarter of 2025 and beating forecasts. But the National Economic and Social Development Council kept its full-year forecast of 1.5% to 2.5% unchanged as the war drags on.
The Bank of Thailand reported signs of life in commercial bank lending in the first quarter, with growth of 0.2% year-on-year, led by corporate loans, following a 1.1% drop in Q4 2025. SME and consumer loans continued to contract, while NPLs stood at 2.85%, unchanged from the quarter before.
The cabinet approved the 176-billion-baht Thais Help Thais Plus co-payment scheme, worth up to 4,000 baht per registered person, to help ease the cost of living, starting on June 1. Registration will take place from May 25-29.
The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has lowered its 2026 Thai GDP growth forecast to a range of 1.2% to 1.6%, down from its previous estimate of 1.6% to 2.0%
The Thai Industries Sentiment Index continued to fall in April to 85.3 points, from 88.6 in March, attributed to the impact of the prolonged US-Israeli war with Iran.
The Department of Energy Business has proposed exporting Jet A-1 fuel to manage a domestic surplus, after refiners said inventory overstock was affecting production processes. Exports to Vietnam and the Philippines are expected to begin next month.
The EEC Policy Committee has approved the expansion of the Eastern Economic Corridor to include Prachin Buri and established a Smart Logistics Zone in Chachoengsao.
The Ministry of Tourism and Sports is considering raising the long-planned entry fee on foreign arrivals above the initially proposed 300 baht. It also proposes adding visa-free entry for high-potential markets such as India and the Middle East before the 60-day exemption is withdrawn.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) reported that long-haul arrivals (Americas and Europe) from January to April 2026 remained close to the prior year's level despite impact from the Middle East war.
AirAsia co-founder Tony Fernandes criticised Airports of Thailand for picking an inappropriate time to raise its passenger service charge by more than 50%. He also suggested varying rates for different airports. AoT has received approval to collect an additional 390 baht, for a total of 1,120 baht per person, starting on June 20.
COMING UP: On Monday, Singapore releases inflation data. On Tuesday, Japan announces core inflation and the US releases consumer confidence and house prices. On Wednesday, New Zealand decides on interest rates and Canada reports wholesale sales. On Thursday, the US releases core personal consumption expenditure inflation, durable goods orders and new home sales. On Friday, Japan announces industrial production and the UK updates its house price index.
Locally, the Office of Insurance Commission holds a briefing and the Thailand Futures Exchange launches Mini Gold Online Futures on Monday. On Thursday, SCBX discusses the AI outlook, and the Bangkok Post holds an economic forum.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities says Mideast tensions have weighed on oil-linked sectors, such as tourism, healthcare, commerce, transport and food. However, easing concerns could support a rebound in GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, CBG, SCGP, AAV and BA, alongside economic recovery plays such as MINT, CENTEL, ERW, BDMS, BH, TIDLOR and MTC.
InnovestX Securities sees upside from encouraging Q1 earnings, although rising global bond yields and uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations remain risks. The MSCI rebalancing at month-end may increase market volatility, with AMATA, CPALL and AWC top picks.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Bualuang Securities sees support at 1,515 points and resistance at 1,580. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,490 and resistance at 1,560.
