New York Rep. Mike Lawler will run for reelection next year rather than try to become the state’s first Republican governor in two decades, giving the GOP a boost as it seeks to hold on to his blue-leaning Hudson Valley seat.
“I’ve decided the right thing to do for me and my family and my district is to run for reelection,” Lawler said Wednesday on “Fox & Friends,” adding that his wins in the past two election cycles were key to Republicans controlling the House. “Keeping the House majority is critical if we are going to continue to move this economy in the right direction.”
With House Republicans holding just a threadbare majority, persuading incumbents to run again could help them retain battleground districts like Lawler’s as both parties prepare for a competitive fight for control next year.
Lawler is already a top target for Democrats as one of just three House Republicans to represent districts carried by Kamala Harris last year. He was first elected to the 17th District, a suburban seat located north of New York City, in 2022, when he scored a high-profile upset of Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. After a late spending surge, Lawler unseated the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair by less than a point in the newly redrawn district.
Two years later, he won a second term by defeating former Rep. Mondaire Jones by 6 points as Harris was carrying the seat by less than half a point, according to calculations by The Downballot.
Republicans haven’t won a gubernatorial election in New York since 2002, when Gov. George Pataki won a third term. Still, Lawler, who had been weighing a gubernatorial bid for months, said on social media that he believed he would have been “best positioned to take on [Democratic Gov.] Kathy Hochul and offer New Yorkers a real choice for Governor.”
His reelection decision now opens the door for fellow GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik, a potential gubernatorial contender whose nomination to be President Donald Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations was yanked earlier this year.
“Republicans are more unified than ever in our mission to fire the Worst Governor in America Kathy Hochul in 2026,” Stefanik said in a Wednesday statement. “I am focused on supporting strong Republican local and county candidates on the ballot this November to lay the groundwork with a strong team for next year. I will make a final decision and announcement after this year’s November election which we are all focused on.”
It’s not clear whether Stefanik will have the Republican primary to herself if she runs. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has also been named as a potential candidate.
Democrats cast Lawler’s decision as an example of him bowing to pressure from Trump, who endorsed the congressman for reelection in May.
“This is the same Mike Lawler who caved to Trump the minute he asked to rip away New Yorkers’ health care,” Hochul said on social media. “Of course he doesn’t have the spine to face me.”
DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast Wednesday that Lawler’s decision showed that Republicans are nervous about next year’s elections.
“There’s huge pressure to make sure that folks don’t leave, and so I’m not surprised by that decision at all,” the Washington Democrat said. “But it highlights how vulnerable Republicans are and how scared they are about having an open seat and keeping the seats that they might have incumbents in right now.”
Republicans, however, pointed to Lawler’s work to lift the cap on the state and local tax, or SALT, deduction in their recent tax and spending package as something he could campaign on in his suburban district. State Republicans are also likely to contrast their candidates with Zohran Mamdani, the self-described democratic socialist who last month won the New York City Democratic mayoral primary.
“While Democrats cave to the far-left mob, Lawler is putting New Yorkers first, and voters will send him back to Congress because he continues to get things done,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Maureen O’Toole said in a statement.
Race for the 17th District
Lawler’s announcement seems likely to give Republicans an incumbency advantage in two of the three Harris-won districts next year. Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon has said he’s retiring, but Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, whose Bucks County swing seat narrowly backed Harris, appears set to run for a sixth term next year. All three seats are top targets for Democrats.
No shortage of Democrats have sought to challenge Lawler, who is one of the House’s most vulnerable incumbents. Seven Democrats have launched campaigns so far, and more could enter the race before next year. Maloney, whom Lawler defeated in 2022, is reportedly eyeing a comeback in the 17th District.
The Democrats so far in the race include Rockland County legislator Beth Davidson; Army veteran Cait Conley; Briarcliff Manor Deputy Mayor Peter Chatzky; attorney and nonprofit founder Jessica Reinmann; former FBI intelligence analyst John Sullivan; former journalist Mike Sacks; and Tarrytown Trustee Effie Phillips-Staley.
Lawler so far leads all his Democratic opponents in fundraising. He raised $1.4 million in the second quarter of 2025 and had $2.2 million in the bank on June 30, according to Federal Election Commission filings due last week.
Three candidates have so far partially self-funded their bids. Chatzky loaned his campaign $500,000 and reported $674,000 on hand at the end of June; Reinmann loaned herself $100,000 and had $443,000 in the bank; and Phillips-Staley put in $100,000 of her own funds and had $99,000 banked.
Conley’s campaign said in a Wednesday memo that she was best positioned to take on Lawler, pointing to her $480,000 second-quarter haul and endorsements from groups such as VoteVets and New Politics, both of which back candidates with military or service backgrounds. She entered July with $614,000 on hand.
But Davidson, who raised $352,000 in the second quarter and had $489,000 banked, has so far raised the most of the seven Democrats and has won endorsements from dozens of local officials and party leaders, including Jones, the former congressman.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race for New York’s 17th District a Toss-up.
The post Lawler will seek reelection to New York swing seat, passing on run for governor appeared first on Roll Call.
