A trader on prediction platform Polymarket has placed a $1.05 million bet on Zohran Mamdani (D-NY) to win the New York mayoral race.
Whale Treats Election Bet Like a Yield Trade
At about 89 cents per share, the position could return roughly $127,000 if the market resolves in the trader's favor.
The wager drew attention across prediction circles after Polymarket captioned the trade, "Is this a bond?" — a nod to how political contracts are increasingly viewed as yield-style investments rather than speculation.
The record bet comes as prediction markets gain mainstream traction among institutional traders and crypto-native investors seeking new ways to price political risk.
Polymarket volumes have surged in 2025 alongside a wave of election-related events and macro uncertainty.
Trump and Musk Step Into a Tight Race
President Donald Trump endorsed former Governor Andrew Cuomo, urging New Yorkers to back the "bad Democrat" over "the communist."
Soon after, Elon Musk publicly supported Cuomo, bringing new media attention to the contest.
These endorsements have added volatility to a race already seen as one of the most divisive in years.
Polls show Mamdani, 34, still leading but by a smaller margin as election day approaches.
More than 735,000 voters have cast early ballots, nearly four times the total from the 2021 election.
Polling data from The New York Times shows Mamdani leading by between five and 25 percentage points.
He faces Cuomo, running as an independent, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.
Mamdani's Campaign Draws Historic Momentum
Mamdani, who represents Astoria in the state assembly, would become the city's first Muslim and first African-born mayor if elected.
His campaign has drawn over 100,000 volunteers and emphasizes rent freezes, free public buses, and expanded childcare funded by higher taxes on corporations.
At a rally on Monday, Mamdani urged supporters to "leave everything out there on the field," calling the race a historic chance to "remake the politics of the place that you call home."
Cuomo, campaigning across the Bronx and Manhattan, warned that a Mamdani victory would turn New York into a "socialist city."
He told reporters, "Socialism did not work in Venezuela. It did not work in Cuba. It will not work in New York City."
Prediction Markets Reflect Political and Financial Crossover
The Polymarket wager highlights how finance and politics are merging through decentralized prediction platforms.
Whales now use these markets to express political conviction and manage election risk like financial assets.
Trump's backing and Musk's comments have intensified focus on New York's mayoral race within investor circles.
Prediction markets are acting as real-time barometers for sentiment across digital-asset traders, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) holders, and political bettors.
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