Premier League managers whose primary objective is to avoid relegation tend to talk about a target of 40 points. Even when they're punching above their expectations, 40 points tends to be the stated goal.
But does a tally of 40 points guarantee safety in the Premier League over the course of a 38-game season, and how many points might be needed to stay up in 2025-26?
Wolverhampton Wanderers are on the brink. Rob Edwards has unearthed some minor improvements since his appointment as manager but nine points after 26 matches is an emphatic relegation waiting to be rubberstamped.
How many points will confirm Premier League safety?
Burnley are increasingly likely to take up another of the division's three relegation places. They twice as many points as Wolves but are themselves nine points and a ton of goal difference away from safety.
There's unexpected hope for West Ham United, however, with the Hammers' upturn in form bringing one of manager Nuno Espirito Santo's former clubs into view. Nottingham Forest, winless in three games against Crystal Palace, Leeds United and Wolves, are on the slide.
After all six promoted teams suffered relegation in the past two seasons but Sunderland and Leeds holding their own in 2025-26, the trapdoor is threatening to catch out a couple of clubs who've previously been let off the hook or are masterminding their own demise.
Both Wolves and Burnley are tracking to fall a long way short of 30 points, never mind 40. With their average points per game indicating season totals of 13 and 26 respectively, their chances of survival are minuscule with 12 matches remaining.
West Ham have been in the relegation zone since they lost to Liverpool at the end of November but have lost only once in their last five. Based on their average points per game, they could be looking at 35 points – their improving fortunes suggest they could bank a few more.
Nottingham Forest are moving in the opposite direction and have turned to former Wolves manager Vitor Pereira to stop the rot, as he did at Molineux last term. If they maintained their average points per game, Forest would end the season with 39 points.
Tottenham Hotspur are the only other team sitting on fewer than 30 points after 26 matches. Their average points per game would put them on 42 for the season, very much safe but also unlikely on recent evidence.
It's not possible to know exactly where the safety threshold will be but the averages up to this point suggest that 36 points would keep Forest up in 17th place.
Given West Ham's direction of travel since the turn of the year, there's every chance they can go beyond 35 and pile the pressure on Forest. Pereira's team might very well drop below their projected 39 points.
All things considered, the points tally required to stay up this season looks likely to be somewhere in the region of 36 to 38 points.
If Forest can get themselves motoring under their new boss and West Ham continue, it could even nudge a little higher – bad news for Spurs if they don't match the pace.
Here's where the safety line has ended up in the last 10 Premier League seasons:
- 2024-25 – 26 points to stay up
- 2023-24 – 27 points
- 2022-23 – 35 points
- 2021-22 – 36 points
- 2020-21 – 29 points
- 2019-20 – 35 points
- 2018-19 – 35 points
- 2017-18 – 34 points
- 2016-17 – 35 points
- 2015-16 – 38 points
