"Do you want the good news first, or the bad news first?" is probably something you've asked other people before. And if you, like me, are currently looking at Harley-Davidson's Q1 2025 financial results, then you might find yourself asking whether whoever wrote this asked themselves that question, too.
Because that's pretty much how it's structured: Small glint of good news first, then just about every other piece of news is bad and/or worse.
If you've been following the company's fortunes for some time, like we have, then this won't come as a surprise. You might have hoped things would turn around, as I'm sure the company itself does. But FY 2024 was terrible, and if the Q1 2025 results are indicative of the future, this year looks like it could be even worse.
So first, the good news: Q1 2025 didn't go as badly as Harley expected. That's it; that's the good news.
The numbers still aren't positive; they just aren't as bad as it thought they might be. The exact way that outgoing Harley-Davidson CEO phrased it was, "Our first quarter results were ahead of our expectations in many areas." Hey, any port in a storm, right?
But what does that mean in numbers? In Q1 2025, Harley-Davidson's overall revenue is down 23% year-on-year over Q1 2024. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) is $1.07, which is down 38% YoY over Q1 2024.
Now, let's dive into the meat of the Q1 2025 report.
For those unfamiliar, Harley-Davidson's financial reports include three segments that add up to form the whole Harley-Davidson picture. They are: Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC), which covers its combustion motorcycles, parts, accessories, and apparel; Harley-Davidson Financial Services (self-explanatory); and LiveWire, which encompasses both the LiveWire-branded EV motorcycles and its STACYC EV kids balance bike brand. Add those segments together, and you get the full H-D picture.
Looking at HDMC's retail sales figures for Q1 2025, both worldwide sales and market share figures are down year-on-year as compared to Q1 2024. Worldwide motorcycle sales are down by 21 percent. In terms of market share, in the US, it's down by a single percent; going from 37% in Q1 2024 to 36% in Q1 2025.
In Europe, however, market share has dropped by more than 50% over Q1 2024. Back then, the Motor Company's European market share was 5%; here in Q1 2025, it's now hovering at just 2%.
But let's go back to sales, and break down that Worldwide into its constituent markets. In North America, Q1 2025 HDMC sales were down by 24% year-on-year over Q1 2024. In Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), they were down by 2%. In Asia-Pacific, they were down by 28%. And finally, in Latin America, they were down by 6%.
Over on the HDFS side, revenues are only down 2% year-on-year as compared to Q1 2024. While that's still a negative number, it is certainly not the worst news. Operating income in this segment is up 19% YoY.
Moving on to LiveWire, we have both bad and comparatively good news to report here, too. In previous years, LiveWire's unit sales reporting put both LiveWire EV motorcycles and STACYC into the same bucket, so it wasn't clear how many units of each type of EV had sold. However, the Q1 2025 results break out "Motorcycle Units" and "Electric Bike Units" into their own separate entities, so we can clearly see which is which.
With that in mind, LiveWire reported a grand total of 33 motorcycles sold in Q1 of 2025. That's down by 72% over Q1 2024. By contrast, it sold 1,970 electric bikes during the Q1 2025 time period, which is down by 33% YoY. Revenue for the combined LiveWire EV segment was $3M for Q1 2025, which is down by 42% over Q1 2024.
In amongst all that negativity, though, there's a slight silver lining. Although the LiveWire segment continues to operate at a loss in Q1 2025 (which, remember, the firm told everyone to expect for the first several years that the segment was to exist), it's actually less of a loss in Q1 2025 than it was in Q1 2024.
How much less bad is it? In Q1 of 2025, LiveWire reported a $20M operating loss. Believe it or not, that's significantly better than its Q1 2024 operating loss, which was $29M. In fact, it marks a 32% move in the right direction if the segment is to become profitable in the foreseeable future. So, cautious optimism might be in order, although only selling 33 bikes in a single quarter now that LiveWire is somewhat established as a brand (and is selling in Europe as well as the US) is probably not very confidence-inspiring.
What About Tariffs?
The Motor Company took this opportunity to address this particular elephant in the room, too. There's an entire page in the investor presentation that outlines where it stands, and that you might find helpful when considering what's to come.
But in uncertain times and a worrisome economy, fewer people are inclined to spend money on things like new motorcycles. Things are different in cultures where motorcycles are used more as everyday transportation, but the US isn't one of those places.
While some of us in this country do try to ride as much as possible, and for as many things as possible, the vast majority ride motorcycles for fun and leisure. In other words, not as everyday commuter, jack-of-all-trades machines (as is the case in other parts of the world).
Because that's the case, and because this is also Harley's largest sales market by volume, even the fact that Harley sources components and builds the majority of its bikes in the US can't and won't completely shield it from the impacts of how the tariff situation ends up shaking out.
With all that in mind, it's absolutely not at all surprising that Harley-Davidson also added this simple, one-line statement to its Q1 2025 financial report. It reads, "Due to the uncertain global tariff situation and macroeconomic conditions, we are withdrawing our full year 2025 financial outlook from February 5, 2025."
Although things haven't been rosy at Harley for some time, it's not the first and definitely won't be the last major company that has withdrawn or will withdraw its financial guidance for the remainder of 2025.
How can you predict the impossible on constantly shifting ground? You can't.
