Global investors expect the Indian rupee to weaken further, with some even gaming out scenarios where the currency falls to an unprecedented 100 per dollar.
Firms including Aberdeen Investments, MetLife Investment Management and Gamma Asset Management SA say the rupee hitting three digits versus the greenback remains a possibility, as a prolonged stalemate in the US-Iran war pushes up India’s oil import bill and drives investors toward the greenback.
“The rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation, and 100 against the dollar is an important psychological threshold that investors will increasingly focus on,” said Rajeev De Mello, global macro portfolio manager at Gamma Asset. “The most immediate catalyst for a break of the level would be another leg higher in oil prices.”
The rupee was already under pressure before the Middle East conflict began, weighed down by widening external balances and foreign fund outflows. The oil shock has since compounded the pressures, stoking speculation over how far the currency could fall.
For global funds invested in Indian equities and bonds, currency losses can quickly erode local gains. They have bought just $1.3 billion of local index-eligible debt so far in 2026, while pulling a record $23 billion from stocks.
