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Esther Addley

Friday briefing: An awful byelection night for Sunak – though the Tories avoid a wipeout

Keir Mather, who has won the seat of Selby and Ainsty in a historic victory for Labour.
Keir Mather, who has won the seat of Selby and Ainsty in a historic victory for Labour. Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

Good morning and welcome to a special First Edition, brought to you this morning – thanks to a great deal of coffee – with the very latest from a dramatic night in British politics. This was a night, of course, that saw three byelections that put Rishi Sunak’s government to an important test, with a general election looming within the next 18 months.

And the headline result might suggest that everyone is happy this morning – with each of the three major parties, remarkably, capturing one of the seats on offer.

In a surprise result, the Conservatives have retained Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, seeing off Labour to hang on with a wafer-thin majority of 495 votes.

But that is where the good news for Sunak ends. The Tories were swept aside by the Liberal Democrats in Somerton and Frome, with Sarah Dyke demolishing a huge Conservative majority to take an 11,000 lead of her own.

And in a stunning result, Labour captured Selby and Ainsty in an enormous 24% swing, overturning a 20,000+ majority to see 25-year-old Keir Mather (pictured above) become Britain’s youngest MP.

There’s no doubt that, with a whitewash widely predicted, the Conservatives will feel a little relief this morning to have clung on in one of the three. Otherwise, though, this is unquestionably an awful night for the government.

I caught up with the Guardian’s north of England editor, Helen Pidd, who had the good fortune to spend the night awaiting the announcement in Selby leisure centre, about what the results mean.

That’s after the headlines – and you can catch up with the very latest on our live blog.

Five big stories

  1. Politics | Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng received about £400 in severance pay for every day they were in office, according to government accounts. The former prime minister and former chancellor each received more than £16,000 on leaving their jobs after just a few weeks, while Tom Scholar, the department’s most senior civil servant, received £457,000 after being sacked by Truss.

  2. Finance | The head of NatWest has apologised to Nigel Farage for what she called “deeply inappropriate comments” about the former Ukip leader in an internal report that led to the closure of his accounts at the group’s exclusive private bank, Coutts.

  3. UK news | A man who was jailed for stalking Jeremy Vine has apologised in court after being sued by the broadcaster for defamation and harassment.

  4. Environment | Hailstorms have hit northern Italy as near-record temperatures begin to ebb, but forecasters have warned of a fourth heatwave hitting southern Europe next week, with temperatures of up to 48C.

  5. Monarchy | King Charles III is to receive a huge pay rise from the UK taxpayer. Figures published by the Treasury on Thursday show the royal family’s grant is due to increase from £86m to £125m by 2025. It comes against the backdrop of the cost of living crisis. The monarchy’s annual budget, known as the sovereign grant, is pegged against the profits from a national property portfolio called the crown estate.

In depth: a tale of three byelections

Uxbridge and South Ruislip’s new Conservative MP, Steve Tuckwell, left, poses for a selfie in Queensmead sports centre, west London.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip’s new
Conservative MP, Steve Tuckwell, left, poses for a selfie in Queensmead sports centre, west London.
Photograph: Jordan Pettitt/PA

No prime minister has lost three byelections in one day since Harold Wilson in 1968 – but as votes were counted yesterday in the three former Conservative constituencies, that crushing result was widely predicted for Rishi Sunak.

The fact that the Conservatives avoided such humiliation will offer a few crumbs of comfort – and will perhaps allow the Tories to claim Labour’s enormous poll lead is potentially softer than Keir Starmer would like, with a general election on the horizon.

The record-breaking 24% swing in Selby and Ainsty away from the governing party will have settled Labour nerves this morning – but there is much for each of the three parties to ponder in these results.

Here, we drill down into each constituency and look at what lessons we can draw, even at this early stage.

***

Uxbridge and South Ruislip – jittery Conservatives cling on

The first result of the night, and the most unexpected. Labour were very hopeful of overturning Boris Johnson’s relatively small majority of 7,000 in the west London seat, whose changing demography increasingly favours the party. But while they came extremely close, Conservative former postman Steve Tuckwell (pictured above) clung on to the seat by his fingertips.

This was a campaign strongly influenced by one very local issue, however, namely Labour London mayor Sadiq Khan’s proposed extension of the Ulez emissions zone to cover the seat, which will require drivers of more polluting cars to pay a hefty daily charge.

Tuckwell openly acknowledged that Ulez had been critical in the result, saying: “Sadiq Khan has lost Labour this election, and we know that it was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost him this election … The pundits expected Labour to win big here, but our community came together and I am thankful to them for … helping to deliver this message.

“This wasn’t the campaign Labour expected, and Keir Starmer and his mayor Sadiq Khan need to sit up and listen to the Uxbridge and South Ruislip residents.”

“This is a massive disappointment for Labour,” says Helen Pidd. “They should have been able to overturn what was a fairly small majority compared to the one here in Selby.” The party will be grateful, however, that Tuckwell chose to lay the blame squarely with Khan rather than Starmer, allowing them to say it was a relative anomaly.

The veteran polling analyst Sir John Curtice told the BBC he thought the result, on a swing of less than 7% to the opposition, could add to the debate inside Labour about what its electoral offer should be.

“On the one hand, the leadership may well want to say, ‘This is a clear warning. If we start talking about increasing spending and increasing taxes, then we are at risk of losing the lead that we have got’.

“On the other hand others will be saying, ‘Well if frankly enthusiasm for the Labour party is so thin that a local issue like this can upend what should have been a successful campaign, then maybe there are questions to be asked about what Labour are offering’.”

***

Somerton and Frome – thumping Lib Dem victory

The Liberal Democrats were confident of bagging this seat, and they were right to be. With a huge 28% swing, the scale of the Tory defeat in the Somerset constituency, their worst in its history, is remarkable.

This is the fourth former Conservative seat that the Lib Dems have managed to flip since 2019, and Dyke was clear on the reasons for that. “Like so many places across the country, we have been let down and taken for granted for far too long by a tired and out of touch Conservative government,” she said.

The party has been desperate to regain its former strong footing in the south-west, which it lost in a 2017 wipeout, and Ed Davey, the party leader, was jubilant at reclaiming the seat, tweeting: “I think we are going to need a bigger tractor.”

***

Selby and Ainsty – Labour win big

Though the decision by former Conservative MP Nigel Adams to quit in a strop after being passed over for a peerage went down “like a cup of cold sick” in the rural Yorkshire constituency, says Helen, victory here was far from assured for Labour.

So the huge win for Keir Mather is “an absolutely massive result”, she says. “A 4,000+ majority is bigger than Labour dared to dream. Up until about half an hour before the result, they thought it was going to be very, very close.

“So it’s huge – but there are particular circumstances in this constituency.” Both Labour and the Tories admit that the manner of Adams’s departure was a factor. “So it was definitely partly a vote against him. Whether there was much enthusiasm for Keir Starmer locally, I am not so sure.” The seat is not far from Sunak’s own Yorkshire constituency, and he was reported to be particularly eager to retain it.

Mather becomes the new “baby of the house”, the name for the youngest sitting MP. He acknowledged it was partly a vote against the sitting party: “For too long, Conservatives up here and in Westminster have failed us, and today that changes.”

“Selby and Ainsty is a semi-rural seat,” says Helen, “and Labour tends not to do very well in those kinds of seats, so they are cock-a-hoop about this. [They will be saying] ‘If we can win here, maybe we can also win in other parts of North Yorkshire which would be pretty unthinkable for Labour not too long ago’.”

***

The bigger picture

Byelections are always anomalies, and those who voted yesterday will be doing so again within 18 months, so there is a limit to how directly we can extrapolate from these results.

Helen says: “I think Rishi Sunak, if he has gone to bed, will have woken up quite relieved because the expectation was a triple wipeout – so holding on in London is going to give them some hope.”

That said, two enormous 24% and 28% swings away from the Conservatives in the other two seats will chill Tory MPs across the country.

“Yes, the Conservatives managed to stem the outgoing tide which they are seemingly suffering in Uxbridge,” Curtice said. “But … there is little gainsaying the fact that the tide is still a long way out for the Conservatives, and they still have an awful long way to go before they look like they might have a chance of being able to retain power at the next election.”

What else we’ve been reading

Camp Hope in Las Cruces, New Mexico 6 October 2015. Camp Hope describe themselves as “alternative transitional living project for the homeless”.
Camp Hope in Las Cruces, New Mexico 6 October 2015. Camp Hope describe themselves as “alternative transitional living project for the homeless”. Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
  • The heatwave that has engulfed the US has made life unbearable and even dangerous for many people. Cecilia Nowell’s dispatch from Las Cruces in New Mexico provides an important insight into what it’s like to not have stable housing during an extreme weather event. Nimo

  • If you’ve been following this year’s Tour de France you’ll know that the main talking point has been the overwhelming dominance of Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard, who in two alpine stages this week obliterated his nearest rival, former champion Tadej Pogacar. He’s clearly an exceptional athlete, but given cycling’s inglorious doping past, that has inevitably raised some eyebrows, writes Jeremy Whittle. Esther

  • A new Nina Simone album full of previously unreleased live recordings from 1966 is due to be released soon. The news got Alexis Petridis thinking about the indomitable artists impressive catalogue, so he ranked her 20 best songs. Give it a read and see if you agree. Nimo

  • Tom Lamont’s long read on Britain’s disappearing chippies is sobering. He lists a couple of my old favourites that have closed already due to soaring costs – up to a third may be at risk. Esther

  • Moya Lothian-McLean takes a look at why more people are drinking less and also asks why so many others are fascinated by this decline. Nimo

Sport

New Zealand celebrate after the group A match between New Zealand and Norway.
New Zealand celebrate after the group A match between New Zealand and Norway. Photograph: Xinhua/Shutterstock

Football | Both Women’s World Cup co-hosts got their tournaments off to winning starts on opening day: New Zealand shocked Norway 1-0, while Australia battled to a 1-0 victory against the Republic of Ireland after losing talisman Sam Kerr to a pre-match calf injury.

Cricket | On day two of the fourth Ashes Test, England put 384 for four on the board in 72 overs, in reply to 317 all out from the Australians. Zak Crawley’s brilliant 189, Joe Root’s 84 and Moeen’s Ali’s 54 put England on top, keeping them in the hunt for the series.

Cycling | Jonas Vingegaard retained his overall lead in the Tour de France as Soudal Quick-Step’s Kasper Asgreen won stage 18 in Bourg-en-Bresse. Asgreen was one of four riders in the day’s breakaway to survive a thrilling pursuit by the speeding peloton, as the race left the Alps behind and entered the Rhone valley.

The front pages

Guardian front page, Friday 21 July 2023
Guardian front page, Friday 21 July 2023 Photograph: Guardian

“Taxpayer to fund 45% pay rise for royals despite cost of living crisis” says our Guardian print edition’s front page this morning. A certain royal is on page one of the Daily Mirror: “Andrew’s Epstein ‘lies’ on Newsnight” – the kicker is “Emails say pair had dinner and swapped messages … contradicting his TV account”. The Daily Express has “Fury over plan to axe pension tax break”. “NatWest’s boss says sorry over Farage row” – that’s the Times’ presentation of a popular splash this morning. The Daily Telegraph says “Bank boss says sorry to Farage” and the Daily Mail has “Apology (of sorts) from Coutts … but silence from BBC”. A sprawling headline of gloom in the i – “1 in 6 people will be stuck on NHS waiting lists if doctor strikes continue, warns UKs top medics”. “Just Stop Foiled” – the Metro shows counter-protesters “kettling” Just Stop Oil activists in London. “Josie of the jungle” – the Sun has a story about presenter Josie Gibson. Top story in the Financial Times is “Vattenfall halts offshore wind project in setback for renewable energy plans”.

Something for the weekend

Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

Comedian Rosie Jones in her documentary Am I a R*tard?
Comedian Rosie Jones in her documentary Am I a R*tard? Photograph: Twofour

TV
Rosie Jones: Am I a Re*tard? (Channel 4)
“I said let’s use that word in the title,” says comedian Jones (pictured above) in the intro to this powerful documentary, “And then, hopefully, by the end of this film, people will think twice before ever using [it] again.” It sees her speak to victims of harassment and former online trolls alike, before urging viewers to call out any ableism they witness, online or off. We’d surely be monsters to ignore her. Cathy Reay

Music
Blur – The Ballad of Darren
You could call the songs on Blur’s ninth album nostalgic, but there’s no rosy glow about their reflections on the past (lead single The Narcissist is effectively a four-minute apology for the swaggering confidence and vaulting ambition that fuelled Blur’s rise to Britpop ubiquity). The tunes are uniformly gorgeous, however. No one expects career-best stuff from a reformation album, but the sighing melody of The Ballad is among the loveliest in Blur’s catalogue. Alexis Petridis

Film
Barbie
Are Barbie dolls demeaning or empowering? Director Greta Gerwig and her co-writer Noah Baumbach opt for the latter theory in this beamingly affectionate and deliriously pink-themed fantasy comedy-adventure starring Margot Robbie, whose own superhuman blond beauty makes her the only possible casting as Barbie herself. It is maybe down to Gerwig’s confidence and generosity as a feminist film-maker that she gives all the best lines to Gosling’s Ken. Peter Bradshaw

Podcast
Herb: A Miniseries (widely available, all episodes out now)

This climate crisis three-parter from Amy Westervelt (Drilled) opens with a little girl in an Amelia Earhart outfit enthusing about her dreams. It’s one of many “inspirational” ads paid for by oil firms, made fashionable by an ex-oil VP who seemingly invented greenwashing. The series shows how companies fought to get their “corporate free speech” turned into a legally protected entity. Alexi Duggins

Today in Focus

Margot Robbie in a scene from the new film Barbie

Why we are all living in a Barbie world

She may have towered over the toy market for 60 years, but Barbie has never been short of critics. So why is a film about a plastic doll creating such fevered excitement?

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

Ben Jennings on Oppenheimer and humanity’s power to destroy

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Otter 841 was born in captivity but was released into the wild in 2020.
Otter 841 was born in captivity but was released into the wild in 2020. Photograph: Laird Henkel/California Department of Fish and Wildlife

The sight of a wild otter commandeering surfboards off the coast of California has delighted onlookers, even as the authorities struggle to capture it. But behind the tale of this bodacious sea mammal hanging five lies a more serious concern about the animal – given the rather functional name “Otter 841” – becoming too use to human interaction and the impressive work done to help the species survive. 841 was actually born in captivity, before being carefully introduced to the wild in 2020, and didn’t display any unusual tendencies for a year – but then she started approaching humans and became a viral sensation. That’s why the California department of fish and wildlife are interested, hoping to get hold of the animal before it can do itself any harm.

“It’s highly unusual behaviour,” said Kevin Connor, a spokesperson for the Monterey Bay aquarium, where 841 was born. “There are about 3,000 southern sea otters in Central California. This is the only incident taking place right now.” While he is not surprised by 841’s growing cult following nor the fact that people are rooting for her to remain wild and free, he cautions against projecting human values and motivations on to animals. “The appeal that otters have is that they are incredibly cute to human eyes – it’s a superpower they have,” Connor said. “We equate them to our pets and you just wanna hug them. But they are wild animals that bite through shellfish with their mouths.”

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.

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