Economists recently upgraded Thailand's export growth outlook for 2026, projecting shipments of electronic components will continue to expand amid improving global trade, while elevated oil prices will drive imports to grow at a faster rate.
Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) improved its export growth estimate this year to 7.8% from 0.5%, despite high uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran war.
The upgrade was driven by export growth of 18.9% year-on-year during the first four months of this year, with shipments consistently beating forecasts.
Electronics exports jumped 65% year-on-year in April, bringing export growth for the segment to 57% year-on-year for the first four months.
According to EIC, the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund both upgraded their projections for global trade growth to 1.9% and 2.8%, from 0.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The WTO reasoned that trade in artificial intelligence-related items is likely to continue growing, particularly in Asia, which has recorded significant positive effects, while the impact of US import tariffs appears to be lower than previously projected.
"Thailand's electronics exports are projected to continue growing strongly in the near future, up from roughly 21% of the country's total shipments in 2025, driven by the upward cycle of the global electronics industry and continued investment in data centres," the research house noted.
EIC also revised its import growth forecast to 15.8% from 9% for the year, driven by robust growth of 35.7% in the first four months, particularly for raw materials, semi-finished products and capital goods.
Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) expects overseas shipments to expand 8.2% this year, driven by continued gains in the electronics sector. The think tank previously projected exports to edge up by more than 1%.
"The forecast upgrade takes into account the risk that the US may consider invoking Section 301, which could significantly slow exports in the second half of the year," said Palitchaya Ritsuk, a researcher at K-Research.
Exports to the Middle East reversed course and expanded by 19.3% year-on-year, primarily driven by gold exports due to increased demand for safe-haven assets in the region, she noted. K-Research maintained its import growth estimate for 2026 at 13.9%, driven by exports and domestic investment.
"However, fuel imports are likely to slow in the near future if tensions in the Middle East do not escalate and energy prices decline," Ms Palitchaya said.
Kuala Lumpur-based Maybank forecasts Thai export growth of 18% this year given the "stellar performance over the first four months despite the Gulf disruption", as well as projected "buoyant demand" for electronics.
Imports are projected to soar 25% this year as a robust pipeline of industrial capital expenditure supports demand for capital goods and inputs, noted Maybank.
