In his rookie season, Drake Maye showed flashes of excellence with a Patriots offense that lacked any major playmakers or weapons for the young quarterback. He technically started 12 games, but it was really 11, because he only played the first three downs in week 18 before being benched to allow Joe Milton to showcase his talents off to potential trade suitors (The Cowboys ended up trading a fifth-round pick for the backup QB this offseason). In his 11 true starts, Maye completed 70% or more of his passes in five of those games, including two games with over an 80% completion percentage.
Now that he has fully earned the right to start (hopefully) all 17 games and he’s got an offense that dramatically improved its offensive line (Morgan Moses at right Tackle, 4th overall pick Will Campbell at left tackle, and third round pick Jared Wilson at center) as well as its offensive capabilities (bringing back Josh McDaniels as OC, adding Stefon Diggs at WR, and adding second round pick Tre’Veyon Henderson at RB), Drake Maye is set to take a big leap forward in production. We could see his numbers spike from 225 of 338 passing, 2276 yards, 15 TDs, 10 INTs, and a passer rating of 88.1 to something closer to 330 of 475 passing, 3,800 yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs, and a Passer rating of 95.0.
That would mark a huge improvement in numbers and would qualify as a “sophomore leap”, the much more celebrated but less common cousin of the “sophomore slump” that is likely to plague many sophomore players this season. I could make a list of players (like Jayden Daniels or Bucky Irving) who I think could very likely have a sophomore slump. Instead, I want to make a positive list in the spirit of Drake Maye’s likely leap and make a list of players who could see jumps in production this season.
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears
Williams seems like an obvious breakout candidate this year. He got a ton of help from the Bears’ front office. With the addition of Ben Johnson as head coach, a trio of elite veteran interior offensive linemen (Jonah Jackson, Drew Dalman, and Joe Thuney), a top tight end in the draft (10th overall pick Colston Loveland), and an electric rookie slot receiver (Luther Burden III), Williams is set up for success.
Williams threw for an impressive 3541 yards, but it was the rest of his numbers last year that really hurt his team. A 62.5 percent completion percentage, a league high 68 sacks taken, and a measly 87.8 passer rating tanked his stat line and kept him from keeping pace with the other top rookie QBs like Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. This year should be different for the former 1st pick in the draft, the offensive strategists, and borderline genius play-calling of Ben Johnson, and the increased protection should keep him off his back and raise his passer rating closer to 95 to 100 rather than 85 to 90.
The Bears’ offense should be much better, and he will be the biggest beneficiary. Will he be playing at an MVP level? Probably not, but it may not be long until that possibility becomes feasible for Williams.
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR, Cardinals
For all the hype Maserati Marv got prior to the season, last year was a really big disappointment. Despite putting up 885 yards and eight touchdowns in what should be considered an impressive rookie season for anybody, regardless of their prestige, MHJ was a victim of his own success in college and the success of rookie receivers last year.
Last season was a historic year for rookie ball catchers. Brock Bowers gained nearly 1200 yards in a record-breaking season as a tight end. Traditional wide receivers also dominated, with Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, and Ladd McConkey all breaking 1150 yards receiving!
Compared to that, Harrison did nothing, but this season I think those numbers flip, and Harrison Jr. puts up eye-popping numbers while he overshadows Thomas, Nabers, and McConkey as they put up slightly less explosive statistics. Marvin’s got all the talent in the world, and it’s not like he’s on an offense that can’t move the ball. The Cardinals have a plethora of talented running backs, a QB that is “entering his prime” (his words, not mine), and other pass catchers like Trey McBride and Michael Wilson to take some of the heat off of him. He should have a good year.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears
Odunze should benefit from the same factors that will benefit Caleb Williams. He may not have the same exact skill set as Amon-Ra St. Brown, but I could see Ben Johnson using Odunze with the same abundance that he used St. Brown with in Detroit.
The addition of Luther Burden could also help Odunze. Burden’s explosive ability in both the underneath and deep game could give Odunze more opportunities in the second level that big guys like him typically thrive in. He had a good season last year, but he has a ton of untapped potential in the tank, and I think Williams and Johnson can help him realize that next level in his game.
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Vikings
Turner struggled to get production last year, not because he wasn’t an insanely talented player; he is an insanely talented player. It’s just that he was stuck behind two and a half insanely talented players on the depth chart. I say half because Patrick Jones II isn’t known for being a superstar player, but he quietly got seven sacks and 12 QB hits last year as Minnesota’s third pass rushing option (behind Greenard and Van Ginkel).
Now that Jones is in Carolina, Turner moves up a spot in the depth chart and is set to perhaps more than double his defensive snap count from a year ago. In his limited experience last year, he was able to grab three sacks; imagine what he can do with even more playing time.
By all accounts, he seems to be prepared to take on the challenge, playing exceptionally well in training camp and expanding his playing style and versatility. According to reports he is expected to take on more of a Andrew Van Ginkel-esque role on Patrick Graham’s defense, with more coverage responsibilities and stand up LB duties with a pass rush focus which could open up his game and make him more effective coming off the bench (although, by the end of the year I predict that they’ll find a way to make him a starter).
Terrion Arnold, CB, Lions
Terrion Arnold may be set to become CB1 this season for the Detroit Lions after losing Carlton Davis to the Patriots. Arnold played effectively in the CB2 position last year but wasn’t trusted to cover the opponent’s top receiver when Davis went down at the end of last season. The Lions instead went out on a (fairly successful) limb and had Amik Robertson take on receivers like Justin Jefferson and Terry McLaurin.
Now, after an offseason of work, the Lions seem comfortable putting Arnold into the CB1 after signing perennial CB2 star D.J. Reed from the Jets. This increased responsibility and the potential for more opportunities to make a play on the ball give Arnold, who has displayed ball hawk tendencies throughout his career, the opportunity to finally get some NFL interceptions after putting up a big fat goose egg for picks last season.
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers
The main reason that Ricky Pearsall is poised to have a better season than he had last year is that this season, he won’t be shot in the chest to start the year. Yes, Ricky Pearsall was shot in the chest before the start of the season and still managed to play in 11 games and start four of them. If that doesn’t show toughness, I don’t know what will.
Pearsall put up 400 yards and three touchdowns (the worst statline of the seven receivers taken in the first round last year), but imagine what he could have done with six more games and fewer holes in his chest! Pearsall has the route running and finesse of Ladd McConkey, but the athleticism and ability to make aerial circus-like catches that are the signatures of guys like Nabers and MHJ. I think Pearsall takes advantage of the 49ers’ questionable wide receiver room and becomes one of Brock Purdy’s top targets of the season.
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Saints
With a name like that, he has to be good. And he is, like really, really good; however, he struggled to make a name for himself last year, with zero interceptions and only six pass deflections. But even with those subpar top-line numbers, if you look into his performances a little more, you see that he’s still the same type of player that he was at Alabama. Giving up a completion percentage of just 54.8% and giving up a passer rating of well below 80 in 5 of his nine starts, McKinstry showed the ability to break out if given more opportunities.
I would not be surprised if he puts up around five picks and 15 pass deflections next season if opposing quarterbacks try challenging him more than they did last year. McKinstry just has great ball skills.
Junior Colson, LB, Chargers
One of the few Michigan players that Jim Harbaugh was able to snag in the last two drafts, Junior Colson, is someone who knows the defensive system and knows what Harbaugh is looking for in a green dot linebacker. That familiarity gives Colson the edge in the battle for one of the starting ILB jobs in training camp. He will compete against another highly drafted linebacker in Daiyan Henley, veteran Denzel Perryman, and journeyman backup Troy Dye.
Colson is likely to earn a starting job or at least a larger role on the defense after being used sparingly in 11 games and one start. Colson could easily be a 120+ tackle machine and could even be a difference maker as a coverage or blitz linebacker as well. I think the former second-round pick is going to have a huge sophomore leap in production.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers
I don’t judge you for forgetting about MarShawn Lloyd, the electric little runner from USC who dazzles anytime he touches the ball. He only played one game for the Packers and got seven touches for 18 yards before losing the rest of his season due to a flurry of injuries and difficulties, including but not limited to hip, hamstring, and ankle injuries, as well as appendicitis.
The good news for Lloyd, however, is that he has been 100% cleared medically and should come into the season with zero restrictions. It sounds like he hasn’t lost a step, and if true, that could make him the most dangerous secret weapon in the league. Lloyd was my favorite back coming into last year’s draft because of his smooth running style and ability to find running gaps where others wouldn’t. Lloyd is explosive in both the running and passing games and could even be a kick return option for the Packers as well. I imagine he will overtake Emmanuel Wilson on the depth chart fairly quickly and eat into Josh Jacobs’ reps more and more as the season moves on. He should be great for them in what will essentially be his rookie season (My comparison to what his potential is this season is similar to what Bucky Irving did last year).
Jalyx Hunt, EDGE, Eagles
Why shouldn’t the Eagles have another beast edge rusher? Who cares if they already have six other starting-caliber pass rushers? You can never have enough!
It is crazy, but it’s true… the Eagles have another star edge rusher that’s about to come out of nowhere and put up double-digit sack numbers. Hunt could likely end up being the long-term replacement for Josh Sweat or Brandon Graham on the Eagles’ D-Line. He’s got the ability and attributes to put up big numbers on this line as early as next year.
He was a third-round pick last year and only played an average of 15 defensive snaps a game, but he still put up 1.5 sacks and impressed coaches enough that he is getting hyped up in training camp as a potential impact player moving forward. I expect big things from him this year, and if he doesn’t… well, blame the Philadelphia coaches and media.
