In a year of challenging news for the electric vehicle race in America, the death of the Ford F-150 Lightning hit a little differently.
This wasn’t the Acura ZDX or the Volkswagen ID.7, after all—it was one of the most groundbreaking products to ever come out of the American auto industry, and arguably the one that made the biggest case for vehicle-to-load and offboard power.
But between new tariffs, slowing EV sales, no more EV tax credits, regulatory changes and other challenges, the math simply didn’t math for Ford anymore. Now, it’s pivoting to hybrids and gas engines over the next few years, since it’s no longer under the metaphorical gun to go mostly zero-emissions by the 2030s. Similar moves are happening at General Motors and Stellantis. And yet something has to give, since all of these car companies face an intensifying EV race elsewhere in the world.
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Welcome back to Critical Materials, our morning roundup of industry and technology news. Also on deck today: Tesla’s Robotaxi program is growing in California at a breakneck pace, and some EV industry trends we’re watching for 2026. Let's dig in.
25%: Detroit's Gas Problem, Explained
In the meantime, going back to gas and hybrid power works out for all of these companies. They derive most of their profits from large, gas-powered trucks and SUVs. This is good news for their bottom lines for now (although certainly not for the climate). But in the aftermath of the Lightning’s death, the Wall Street Journal asks: how long can they keep this up?
General Motors, Ford and Stellantis all have said they would shift their sales mix to more gasoline-powered vehicle models, which generate higher profits. They have laid off thousands of workers at EV factories, some of which have been idled. After all, matching production to demand is crucial to a sector that does just-in-time manufacturing. Even one quarter of mismatched production can result in billions of dollars of losses, notes Tom Narayan, equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
The shift back to selling more gasoline cars could be quite lucrative for the Detroit 3. In the company’s second-quarter earnings call, Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley said easing emissions regulations could be a “multibillion-dollar opportunity over the next two years.”
[…] But even while these automakers are focusing on gas guzzlers, they insist that they aren’t getting out of the global EV race. General Motors CEO Mary Barra said at the company’s second-quarter earnings call that “profitable electric-vehicle production” continues to be the company’s North Star. Ford’s Farley has said this year that the company sees Chinese EV companies such as BYD and Geely as competitors.
[…] The risk is that they move too slowly on EVs to ever catch up.
It’s a problem that in 2026 will move from theoretical to very real: how do these automakers keep up EV investments if the ones they made so far aren’t profitable? And if they don’t keep up those EV investments, how will they compete with China—both globally and potentially here in the U.S. someday?
I’d argue that this is, unfortunately, more of a uniquely American problem than the auto industry would care to admit. The European automakers seem to be figuring out ways to compete with new Chinese entrants on small and midsize EVs. But the U.S. automakers have largely become big truck companies, and large-battery EVs are proving to be costly and often inadequate for the towing and hauling that those owners expect.
But I would also add that some of the Big Three (Big 2.5? Unclear these days) are doing better than others. GM says it is approaching profitability with its EVs, and unlike Ford and Stellantis, it has a wide range of offerings in the space. It also has a much more robust battery strategy.
Still, this is a conundrum the Americans will have to solve at some point. The WSJ likens it to the big American oil companies: they’ve done just fine, financially, by not focusing as much on sustainable and renewable energy as their European peers. Yet sticking to gas trucks forever isn’t an option for automakers: “But the difference with the oil majors is that the rest of the world could switch to predominantly EVs faster than an overall transition away from oil and gas, which would still be necessary for things like aviation, electricity generation, seaborne shipping and plastics manufacturing.”
50%: Tesla Registers More Than 1,000 Robotaxis For California Fleet
I’m currently back in Austin visiting family for the holidays, and the Waymo takeover here is almost on par with what I just saw out in San Francisco. But a Tesla Robotaxi ride or two is definitely on my agenda while I’m in town. A lot more folks in California will be experiencing them soon, according to Business Insider:
Tesla has scaled its California "Robotaxi" program at a lightning-fast pace. To date, the automaker has registered 1,655 vehicles for its ride-hailing service in the state, a spokesperson from the California Public Utilities Commission told Business Insider. The company has registered 798 drivers, the spokesperson said.
That's up from 28 cars and 128 drivers in August, when the service launched, according to the CPUC.
The vehicle number reflects cars that have been approved for use, not the actual operational fleet number.
Numbers-wise, this puts it within firing range of Waymo in the Golden State. Many Tesla bulls believe this to be one of the company’s biggest advantages in the autonomy race: it doesn’t need to build or buy specialized cars from an outside partner like Waymo or Zoox, but can deploy the same old fleet of cars with a version of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) software all on its own. We’ll see next year if Tesla can really deliver on such scale—and get revenue from it.
75%: The Affordability Challenge Is A Trend To Watch In 2026
We’ll have more to come on this as well, but Cox Automotive is already outlining some industry trends to watch next year. One is the potential decline in not just EV sales, but sales of all new-car models as buyers get squeezed out on affordability.
The research firm predicts a 2.4% sales decline in 2026. Here’s one such trend that stands out to me, and is also somewhat related to our first item above:
The Bifurcated Consumer: The divide between high-income and low-income households is widening. Wealthier consumers will benefit from wealth effects, lower taxes, and rate cuts, while lower-income households will continue to feel the strain of years of inflation, yet also see higher tax refunds. This divergence accelerates trade-down behavior, making value perception critical across the market. Cox Automotive is expecting an increase in demand for affordable vehicles, lower monthly payments, and used-vehicle options that provide solutions for consumers seeking to stretch their budgets.
Can car companies move quickly enough to meet the customers who are looking for value and lower prices? High-cost, high-margin vehicles may not be able to carry the industry much longer.
100%: Can American Automakers Find A Future Beyond Gasoline?
Again, a lot of this goes back to Detroit’s profit dependence on big trucks. But right now, there’s an appetite for smaller and more affordable vehicles, too. Is that the way out of this conundrum? Or should they all merely count on pro-EV policies coming back at some point? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Contact the author: patrick.george@insideevs.com
