Good morning. Accurate, timely data is essential for strong decision-making and business growth. When data quality suffers, organizations risk losing their strategic edge, and recent changes to U.S. statistical agencies have raised red flags among top economists.
Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) may have completed much of its cost-cutting agenda, but its ripple effects are still being felt. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, flags deeper risks stemming from DOGE’s workforce reductions: slashing jobs at federal statistical agencies is already eroding the quality of government data—a sign of more far-reaching consequences for public services.
“Government workers have important jobs that are critical to providing important services to taxpayers,” Zandi told me. “If jobs are cut and those services aren’t provided or aren’t provided in a timely and competent way, there can be significant negative fallout.”
Regarding the quality of data, the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics'(BLS) report last week resulted in intense scrutiny. President Trump on Aug. 1 ordered the firing of Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the BLS.
According to the BLS, July’s employment report showed only 73,000 new jobs, while job gains from May and June were sharply revised downward by a combined 258,000. This brought the three-month average monthly payroll growth down to just 35,000, compared to 123,000 a year earlier.
However, Zandi points to DOGE’s cuts as a key driver of these revisions: Workforce reductions mean payroll data from agencies often arrives late, leading to large, after-the-fact corrections.
“This didn’t matter much when government employment was stable, but now that government jobs are declining, the cuts are being picked up in the revisions,” Zandi said.
The impact extends to the statistical agencies themselves; understaffed teams struggle to process employment data promptly, which in turn causes even bigger subsequent revisions, he said. Investing in reliable data and the people who collect it is a foundation for smart decisions and economic resilience, according to Zandi.
In times of uncertainty, the value of good data cannot be overstated: It is an indispensable compass for leaders.
Sheryl Estrada
sheryl.estrada@fortune.com
