September WTI crude oil (CLU25) today is up +0.59 (+0.95%), and September RBOB gasoline (RBU25) is up +0.0225 (+1.08%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices are moving higher today, with gasoline posting a 2-week high. Dollar weakness today is supportive for energy prices. Crude and gasoline also found support today after weekly EIA crude and gasoline inventories fell more than expected. Gains in crude are limited by signs of progress in Ukraine peace talks, which could pave the way for fewer restrictions on Russian crude exports.
Signs of progress in peace talks over the Ukraine war are weighing on crude prices. President Trump is pushing for a summit between Presidents Putin and Zelenskiy soon. Any resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian war could be bearish for crude prices, as an end to the war could mean allowing Russian crude to trade freely and could lead to an end to sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Concern about higher OPEC production is weighing on crude prices after OPEC+ on August 2 endorsed an additional 547,000 bpd increase in its crude production for September 1. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. OPEC+ has 1.66 million bpd of supplies that are currently due to remain offline until late 2026. OPEC July crude production fell by -20,000 bpd to 28.31 million bpd.
A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -12% w/w to 82.49 million bbl in the week ended August 15.
Today's weekly EIA report was mixed for crude oil and products. On the bullish side, EIA crude inventories fell -6.01 million bbl, a much larger draw than expectations of -850,000 bbl. Also, EIA gasoline supplies fell by -2.7 million bbl, more than expectations of -325,000 bbl. On the negative side, EIA distillate stockpiles rose by +2.3 million bbl, a larger build than expectations of +1.5 million bbl. Also, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, rose by +419,000 bbl.
Today's weekly EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of August 15 were -5.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.7% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -13.0% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending August 15 rose by +0.4% w/w to 13.382 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending August 15 was unchanged at 411 rigs, just slightly above the 3.75-year low of 410 rigs from August 1. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.25-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
