Count Binface could heap by-election embarrassment on Nigel Farage, experts say - after the Reform UK leader quit as an MP.
The Reform UK leader stunned Westminster on Tuesday by announcing he was standing down from Parliament. The move triggers a by-election in his Clacton constituency.
He lashed out at the media and the “Establishment” who he accused of targeting him as he faced a swirl of financial allegations.
But Mr Farage’s by-election move was threatening to potentially backfire with a jump in interest in Count Binface, who was put at 5-1 of winning, according to Oddschecker, with the Reform leader still clear favourite on 1-8.
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards is understood to have launched an investigation into Mr Farage over a £5 million gift from Reform donor Christopher Harborne before becoming an MP.
The Reform leader is also facing calls for an investigation following reports that long-term ally George Cottrell had provided undeclared funding for security and staffing in the year before he was elected.
Mr Cottrell reportedly recruited and paid three staff to work on Mr Farage’s social media before the general election, and has continued to allow him to use a five-storey Georgian property he rented near Buckingham Palace.
The Reform leader denies any wrongdoing, saying he had followed Commons rules.
On the looming by-election, he added: “It’s a chance to stick two fingers up to the entire Establishment.”
But Mr Farage could be left red-faced by his move as the main political parties swiftly said they would not contest the by-election.
He will also have to drum up sufficient turnout by Clacton voters to justify the cost of the by-election, which could be well over £200,000.
Mr Farage looks almost certain to win.
But if another candidate, such as Count Binface, does surprisingly well in the absence of the main parties it could be another blow to the Reform leader.
There were already reports of donations being offered for the Binface campaign.
Polling expert and Tory peer Lord Hayward told The Standard: “It could be a triple embarrassment.
“First the major parties not standing.
“Second and most crucially the turnout because Farage has to show that a large number of Clacton voters still support him.
“And third how well candidates like Count Binface actually do.”
At the 2024 general election, Mr Farage stormed to victory in Clacton, winning 46.2% of the vote, or 21,225 votes, with Conservative Giles Watling in second place on 27.9%, or 12,820 votes.
The turnout was 58.4%.
Turnout at a by-election would not usually be expected to be as high.
But when Douglas Carswell resigned as a Tory and defected to Mr Farage’s UKIP, triggering a by-election in Clacton in 2014, turnout was 51.1%.
Mr Carswell won comfortably, with 59.7% of the vote.
So Mr Farage faces a double test on turnout and margin of victory.
Count Binface, the space and electoral warrior created by comedian Jon Harvey, conceded he will probably not win in Clacton.
Asked on BBC radio if he could pull off a shock victory, he said: “Probably not, but then you know my job is to celebrate and defend the wonders of British democracy.”
Laurence Fox, of the Reclaim Party, as well as candidates from the Monster Raving Loony Party and Rejoin EU Party may also enter the contest.
But Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, said the by-election could turn out to be a damp squib.
“I think certainly his hope that he would have a by-election in which he would be taking on all of the other political parties, that therefore it would be quite a very substantial political circus that would receive a great deal of attention, it looks as though that’s not going to happen,” he said.
“It’s a bit like somebody saying, ‘come on, let’s go and play football’, but then none of the other kids are willing to play.”
Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis, at a Nato summit in Turkey, dismissed Mr Farage’s move as a “stunt”, stressing that people in his Barnsley North constituency were seeing it as a “complete circus”.
He added: “Looks like Count Binface will be sort of stepping forward, and good luck to him.”
