The Nifty declined nearly 1.5% on Monday, tracking weak global cues after the US and Iran failed to reach a peace agreement. Analysts say Indian equities are expected to remain cautious in the near term amid escalating geopolitical tensions, with stock- and sector-specific action likely to continue alongside the final leg of the Q4FY26 earnings season.
STATE OF THE MARKETS
GIFT Nifty (Earlier SGX Nifty) signals a gap-down start
GIFT Nifty on the NSE IX traded lower by 211.50 points, or 0.89 per cent, at 23,626.50, signaling that Dalal Street was headed for a gap down start on Tuesday.
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Tech View: On the upside, a move above 24,000 could trigger short covering and lead to a pullback towards 24,200 levels. The momentum indicators have turned negative as the MACD has generated a fresh bearish crossover, while the RSI has slipped below the 50 mark, reflecting weakening strength. On the volatility front, India VIX jumped nearly 10% to close around 18.50 levels, and any sustained move above the 20 mark could further increase nervousness among market participants.
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India VIX: India VIX, which is a measure of the fear in the markets, nearly 10% to settle at 18.51 levels.
S&P 500 ends higher
The S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Monday, with AI optimism fueling upward momentum even as the earnings-driven fervor of the recent rally eased in the home stretch of reporting season and as crude prices rose, stoking inflation worries as U.S.-Iran peace negotiations stalled.
Asian shares climb
Asian stocks climbed as traders stayed bullish on the AI trade even as the US and Iran failed to reach any peace deal. Oil climbed.
- S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 9:01 a.m. Tokyo time
- Hang Seng futures rose 0.4%
- Japan’s Topix rose 0.5%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.1%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures were unchanged
Oil rises
Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Tuesday as negotiations to end the war between the United States and Iran appeared fragile, with Tehran’s response to a U.S. proposal highlighting stark differences that kept supply concerns alive.
Gold up
Gold prices rose on Tuesday as investors awaited a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping while watching developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East.
Dollar steady
The U.S. dollar held its ground on Tuesday as talks to end the war in the Middle East showed no signs of progress, pushing oil prices higher and worrying investors that interest rates may need to stay higher to tackle inflationary pressures.
Stocks in F&O ban today
SAIL
Securities in the ban period under the F&O segment include companies in which the security has crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit.
FII/DII action
Foreign portfolio investors net bought shares worth Rs 8,437 crore on Monday. DIIs, meanwhile, were net buyers at Rs 5,939 crore.
Rupee
The Indian rupee endured its sharpest drop in more than a month on Monday to end at it weakest closing level on record as a run-up in crude oil prices battered the currency after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to a US peace proposal.
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