A weaker dollar index and a rose in the long-term bond prices were primarily bullish factors for commodities in June. The September dollar index moved 2.37% lower, while the September U.S. 30-year Treasury bond futures rose 2.13% to 115-12 at the end of June.
Precious and base metals, energy, and animal proteins were mostly higher; grains and soft commodities were mostly lower for the month ending on Monday, June 30.
The double-digit percentage gains were in platinum, palladium, heating oil, distillate refining spreads, and Rotterdam coal. Arabica coffee and frozen concentrated orange juice futures posted double-digit percentage losses for June.
Platinum and palladium lead on the upside
Platinum and palladium have been laggards in the precious metals sector over the past years. In Q2 2025, the two platinum group metals led the sector and the overall asset class. Platinum was the star performer.
Platinum futures rose 26.53% higher in June, closing at $1,343.00 per ounce on the nearby October NYME futures contract. The quarterly chart shows that platinum futures formed a bullish key reversal pattern in Q2 2025, rising above the long-term technical resistance level at the Q1 2021 high of $1,348.20 per ounce, reaching a high of $1440.50, the highest price since Q4 2014.
Meanwhile, palladium posted an impressive 14.30% gain in June.
NYMEX palladium futures settled June at $1,107.10 per ounce after rising to a high of $1,193.50. The quarterly chart highlights that palladium also formed a bullish key reversal during Q2 2025, as the precious metal fell below the Q1 low and closed above the previous quarter’s high.
COMEX silver futures did not post a double-digit percentage gain in Q2, but the precious metal also formed a bullish reversal on its quarterly chart.
Nearby COMEX silver futures moved 8.51% higher in June, settling at $36.172 per ounce. Silver, platinum, and palladium formed the technical reversals that could lead to further gains during the second half of 2025.
Arabica coffee and FCOJ futures lead on the downside
Frozen concentrated orange juice futures were the worst-performing commodity in June, declining 19.41% for the month ending on June 30, 2025.
The monthly chart highlights the correction in FCOJ futures after they reached an all-time high of $5.4315 per pound in December 2024. Higher prices encourage more production, which likely weighed on prices in June, sending them toward a challenge of the $2 per pound level. Nearby September ICE FCOJ futures settled at $2.2460 per pound on June 30, 2025.
Meanwhile, Arabica coffee futures posted a double-digit percentage decline in June, following a decline in May.
The monthly chart illustrates an 11.68% decline, taking the September ICE Arabica coffee futures contract to $3.0010 per pound on June 30 after it had probed below the $3 level. Coffee futures reached a record high of $4.2995 per pound in February 2025. The high price likely caused producers to increase their output while consumers restricted their purchases, leading to the correction. In commodities, the cure for high prices is often those high prices, as we have witnessed in FCOJ and coffee futures in June.
Metals, energy, and animal proteins mostly higher- Soft commodities were mostly lower
Oil prices fell in June, with NYMEX WTI futures declining 8.90% and ICE Brent futures moving 6.31% to the downside in volatile trading. Gasoline and heating oil futures posted 4.24% and 13.98% gains, sending cracks in opposite directions for the month. The gasoline crack spread declined, while the distillate refining spread moved substantially higher. The conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran and the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear infrastructure sent prices higher, but the ceasefire caused a significant selloff from the June highs. While crude oil and oil products were higher in June, they were in mostly bearish trends at the end of the month.
The volatile U.S. natural gas futures market declined 1.90% in June, but its volatility was also highlighted by threats to LNG supplies stemming from the Middle East hostilities. Ethanol was lower, while Rotterdam coal prices rallied for the month.
Soft commodities, which had been bullish beasts in 2023 and 2024, were mostly lower in June. World sugar futures fell 5.98%, while Arabica coffee and FCOJ futures led the sector on the downside with 19.41% and 11.68% respective declines. Cocoa fell 2.39%, while cotton futures edged only 0.56% higher.
Animal proteins posted across-the-board gains, with feeder cattle for August delivery leading the way on the upside with a 3.97% gain. August live cattle futures rallied 2.16%, and the August live cattle futures posted a 2.60% gain as the 2025 peak grilling season began on the Memorial Day weekend. Live and feeder cattle rose to new all-time highs in June, with the feeders eclipsing the $3.10 per pound level for the first time.
As the 2025 growing season for grain and oilseed crops is underway, corn and soft red winter wheat futures declined, while the CBOT soybean futures edged marginally higher in June. Prices remain at low levels compared to 2022. The new crop November soybeans were only 0.02% higher, while new crop corn futures for December delivery fell 2.96%, leading the sector on the downside. September soft red winter wheat futures fell 1.82%, and the KCBT-CBOT wheat spread remained at a discount for the KCBT hard red winter wheat, which is a bearish signal for the primary ingredient in bread.
Precious metals were higher, despite a 0.23% decline in gold, which had set a record high in April. Platinum was the leader with a 26.53% gain, while palladium moved 14.30% higher. Silver rallied 8.51% higher, outperforming gold. Silver, platinum, and palladium move into Q3 in bullish trends after forming bullish key reversals on the quarterly charts.
COMEX copper, the red nonferrous metal, which is the leader of base metals trading on the London Metals Exchange, moved 7.49% higher and back over the $5 per pound level. Copper experienced a volatile March and April, with the price fluctuating from a new record high to critical support at the $4 per pound level. Copper prices stabilized in May and rallied in June, settling at the $5.0825 per pound level on the active month September COMEX futures contract on June 30.
Nearby September physical lumber futures rose 7.95% in June, as the weaker dollar, rising bonds, and prospects for trade agreements lifted wood prices.
Cryptos mixed- Stocks and bonds higher
Bitcoin rallied 2.86% in June, closing the month at over $107,600 per token. Meanwhile, Ethereum declined 2.53% in June.
After plunging in April, the stock market made an impressive comeback. The S&P 500 index rose 4.96% in June.
The monthly chart illustrates that the S&P 500 index, the most diversified U.S. stock market benchmark, rose to a new record high at over the 6,200 level in June. Meanwhile, the September U.S. 30-year Treasury bond futures rose 2.13% in June, taking pressure off long-term interest rates as inflationary data showed the economic condition moving toward the Fed’s 2% target. The FOMC did not reduce the Fed Funds Rate at the most recent meeting, but the odds for a rate cut at the September meeting have increased.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index remained under significant pressure.
The monthly chart illustrates the dollar index’s bearish trend that began in January and has made lower lows over the past four out of five months. The index fell 2.37% in June, settling at 96.493 on June 30. The index broke below critical technical support at the July 2023 low of 99.22 in April and was the lowest level since February 2022 on June 30, 2025.
A falling dollar and rising bonds tend to be bullish for commodity prices.
Factors to watch in July 2025
As I have written in the past monthly reports:
Trends are a trader or investor’s best friend in markets across all asset classes, and commodities are no exception. Approach markets with a risk-reward plan and stick to the program. Accepting small losses in the quest for oversized gains is always acceptable. Therefore, stick to loss levels when markets move contrary to expectations but adjust risk-reward dynamics to protect capital and gains when markets move in the desired direction.
As the raw materials sector moves into July, seasonality in natural gas during the cooling season, gasoline during the driving season, and cattle and hogs during the grilling season could continue to support prices.
Precious metals remain in bullish trends, with very bullish quarterly key reversals in silver, platinum, and palladium. Copper and base metals are mostly bullish, with the red metal back above $5 per pound on the nearby COMEX futures contract.
The path of least resistance in grains and oilseeds remains bearish, while we should expect volatility in energy and soft commodities. The following macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could cause periods of increased price variance over the coming weeks:
- The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and relations between the U.S. and countries worldwide could cause bouts of volatility if hostilities rise or peace talks lead to agreements. No change from last month after a very volatile June.
- U.S. policies under the Trump administration could continue to cause market turmoil. Tariffs are trade barriers that affect global raw material prices, creating distortions that can lead to sudden price fluctuations.
- The Chinese economy remains critical as China is the demand side of the equation for many commodity markets.
- Expect liquidity in markets to decline during the J summer vacation months of July and August. Less liquidity tends to create the potential for higher volatility.
- The U.S. debt and the progress of the Trump administration’s “big beautiful” economic package could lead to volatility in the bond and stock markets.
Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in July and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
