What we learned; election night 2025
What. A. Night. I don’t think many of us can say we saw that result coming.
That’s where we’ll leave you for tonight, thank you so much for following us on the blog.
Here’s what we learned this Saturday 3 May:
Labor has achieved an emphatic win, with strong swings for the party across all states and territories.
Labor has secured majority government, securing at least 86 seats.
Anthony Albanese was overjoyed and became emotional during his victory speech, promising to “govern for every Australian”.
Peter Dutton has lost his seat of Dickson to the Labor challenger, Ali France.
Dutton apologised for the result, conceding “it is not our night”, as Liberal party faithful say there will need to be a hard look at what went wrong for the LNP, which recorded a historic loss.
The Coalition will also need to select a new leader.
The Greens have lost two of their three seats in Queensland, but have celebrated their “highest” number of votes across the country.
Zali Steggall, Allegra Spender, Monique Ryan and Sophie Scamps have retained their seats but the picture is still unclear for some of the other incumbent teal independents. Zoe Daniel and Kate Chaney are ahead in their seats. Not affiliated with the Climate 200 movement, but the independent Dai Le also looks to be ahead in her western Sydney seat of Fowler.
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Which seats are still in doubt tonight?
The overall picture of a landslide re-election for the Albanese Labor government, the first federal government to serve a full first term and then increase its majority, is clear enough, but just a note on seats in doubt.
Currently the ABC is listing the following as in doubt: Bean, Bradfield, Brisbane, Bullwinkel, Melbourne, Fairfax, Wills, Richmond, Griffith, Fowler, Ryan, Longman, Calare, Franklin and popping back into the frame, surprisingly, Goldstein.
Some of these are probably set to “in doubt” just as a caution when the seat does strange things early in the night.
With Calare, the theory might be that the second independent Kate Hook could catch Andrew Gee; I don’t think that is realistic. With Franklin, Julie Collins is clearly too far in front.
Seats where there are complications with independents that I think we need to see more in include at least Monash, Fremantle, Calwell, Forrest and Flinders, though it is common for scenarios with independents winning from low primaries to fall over with more counting, especially as independents do badly on pre-polls.
The ABC is projecting the Greens ahead in Richmond but that would require a 50-50 preference split, which seems very unlikely. Petrie and Forde are still reasonably close but projected leads of 52-48 and above with this much counted don’t fall over often.
While the swing in pre-polls does seem to be less than the swing in day votes, it is not greatly less, so that doesn’t offer much hope for trailing incumbents. At present, I think Labor is very likely to gain Brisbane and Griffith.
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Bandt hails Greens’ ‘highest ever vote in history’, despite loss of two seats
The Greens are celebrating their “highest ever vote in history”, despite having lost two seats in Brisbane, and suffering a swing against them in Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne.
In a statement, Bandt said:
Tonight, millions of people across the country have voted for the Greens – more than ever before in history.
More people than ever before backed the Greens’ big solutions for the housing, cost of living, and climate crisis.
Bandt congratulated Albanese on his win, and took some credit for Peter Dutton’s loss in his own seat.
The Greens leader also explained the loss of Brisbane (formerly held by Stephen Bates) and Griffith (formerly held by Max Chandler-Mather), blaming the Liberals.
The historic collapse in the Liberal vote has meant that Labor will win the seats of Griffith with Liberal preferences, and Brisbane too, even as our vote held firm.
He then paid tribute to Chandler-Mather and Bates:
There’s never been a first term MP who has had the impact Max Chandler-Mather has, putting the rental crisis in the spotlight, winning $3.5 billion for social housing, and feeding thousands out of his own pocket. This is not the last we’ve seen of him.
Stephen has been an incredible voice for Brisbane, and the millions of young people left behind by Labor and Liberal.
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‘You’ve got Whitlam, Hawke and Albo’: Marles celebrates Labor’s win
The deputy PM, Richard Marles, was feeling nervous and pessimistic early on tonight, but no doubt that would have quickly dissipated as the count started rolling in.
Marles, at his party in his seat of Corio, said it was an “overwhelming” result, and the party is “really excited”.
Three-quarters of incumbent governments across the democratic world since the pandemic have lost. So to be able to win, and win in such an emphatic way in this circumstance, I think is enormous credit to our government, but particularly Anthony Albanese.
He’s been underestimated throughout his life. He is now of history in terms of being a Labor leader who has been elected twice. You’ve got Whitlam and Hawke and Albo.
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It’s been a tough night for the LNP, which will spend the next few weeks and months analysing what went wrong.
How have those within the party responded? Ben Smee has this analysis:
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Antony Green farewelled as the ‘Goat’ of election calling
This is Antony Green’s final election broadcast with the ABC, after an illustrious career spanning many decades.
The ABC is playing a farewell package for him, with former prime ministers – Labor and Liberal – reflecting on the “Goat” of election calling.
He gets a big applause from the panel and heartfelt tributes.
And he jokes that he’ll give his tie to the Australian museum of democracy in Canberra.
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Ali France claims historic victory over Peter Dutton in Dickson
Labor’s Ali France has claimed a historic victory over Peter Dutton in the west Brisbane seat of Dickson.
It’s the first time an opposition leader has been unseated in 125 years of federal elections.
A raucous crowd of Labor volunteers and MPs chanted her name as they waited several minutes for her to enter.
Her 18-minute speech started with an acknowledgment of country – which drew a huge cheer. From there she spoke about her three attempts at the electorate, and paid tribute to mentors including the Queensland opposition leader, Steven Miles, who was in the room.
She said some of those in the room had been campaigning against Dutton since he was elected in 2001.
She also paid tribute to her son, Henry, who died of leukaemia last year. Many Labor faithful audibly sobbed or cried out.
“I wish you were here,” she said.
He was so insistent that I don’t give up even to care for him. He was looking forward to being a part of this campaign, a part of this celebration, and I can tell you Henry you were.
Every time it felt too hard or too much, I thought of you and your courage and bravery and happiness and positivity to the very end.
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Labor figures differ on how much influence Trump had on federal election
We’ve heard a lot about the influence Donald Trump has had in this campaign. So how much credit do Labor figures give him for their win?
Labor’s housing minister, Clare O’Neil, has downplayed the role of the US president at the 2025 election, pointing to the primacy of cost-of-living concerns. She told Channel Seven:
I think the Trump aspect has been in the background. But the biggest thing that has been going on in this election was the cost of living. That is the vast majority of the doorknock conversations you would have with people. And the truth is that Labor came to this election with a better answer.
Peter Dutton did a good job throughout the term exploiting grievances but when it actually came to the moment for him to explain how he was going to address the concerns that he was raising, he had nothing to say.
The former Labor minister Bill Shorten, though, said the global uncertainty that has come out of the new American administration convinced voters to turn to the devil they know:
There are a lot of Australians uneasy about President Trump’s policies and there has been a flight to certainty. Love him or hate him, Albo and the team, they’re there, and they have had the policy. This is one of the first elections I’ve ever seen where the shadow of foreign affairs has really loomed large over the domestic debate and the Libs turned a bit Maga-esque in some of their statements at exactly the wrong time.
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The seats where independents are looking close
We’re predicting that Andrew Gee will win Calare. Gee originally won Calare for the Nationals in 2022, but left the party over its stance on the voice to parliament.
Gee contested this election as an independent, and is now leading by 7% on two-party preferred.
There are a number of other independent challengers who are looking very close, and we are keeping an eye on Alex Dyson in Wannon, Nicolette Boele in Bradfield, and Caz Heise in Cowper.
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Bill Shorten’s advice to Peter Dutton on how to respond to an election loss
What do you do after losing an election as opposition leader?
According to the former Labor minister Bill Shorten, “don’t take it personally”.
It’s a question Shorten has some experience in answering, after leading Labor to back-to-back defeats in 2016 and 2019, and he reflected on Channel Seven earlier tonight:
I know where Peter Dutton is going to be tonight. To him and his family, it’s really tough and he has given it his all.
Shorten offered the outgoing Coalition leader some free advice:
I do think the policies were bad, and I do think the campaign was bad, but one thing Peter Dutton shouldn’t do is, when he goes home and sees his family … and it’s hard to do this, but he shouldn’t take it personally. That’s easy to say at a distance, but it happens to be true. When they are piling on you, Peter, they are piling on your nuclear policy, or your work from home or whatever, but he and his family have just got to take some time just to breathe, OK, and not to feel it. It’s not about him.
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McGrath says it’s a ‘brutal night’ for LNP as Chalmers says he’s ‘grateful’
Giving his final thoughts to the ABC panel, James McGrath says it’s been “a brutal night” for the LNP, and the party will have to take stock of the losses, and figure out what it does next.
We have been down before, we will rebuild, we will come back and we will hold the government to account … We have got to make sure we take stock of why we lost this election and have a serious review into those reasons.
Jim Chalmers, meanwhile, says he’s “grateful” and promises to deal with the “substantial challenges” facing the country.
We approach the second term with humility and we know that we were not re-elected because we had solved every challenge, but because Australians thought that we were better placed to meet the moment.
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Labor on track for 90 seats, Guardian election analyst says
As the night goes on, the election is looking more and more of a blowout, with Labor tracking for about 90 seats. It will be a long time before the two-party-preferred vote settles down but it currently seems to be around the mid-50s.
Either it will turn out that Labor’s vote has been very well distributed to win Liberal seats, or it will turn out that the polls were somewhere near as far off as in 2019 but in the opposite direction.
Polls don’t get criticised as much when they miss on the margin but get the right winner, but the final polls were very clustered around the range 52-53 two-party preferred, with a few even below that range, and this is not at this stage looking like a good night for polling.
It remains the case that losses Labor might suffer in their own seats look like being just a seat or two in freak crossbench scenarios, if anything at all. As well as all its losses to Labor, the Coalition is still in close battles to hold Bradfield, and Flinders and Monash is still a mess. (Plus contrary to an error in my comments earlier, Andrew Gee has retained Calare after defecting from the Nationals.)
Meaningful figures are now arriving from WA. First, the Liberals appear to be losing Moore where the disendorsement of Ian Goodenough and him running as an independent was never going to help them.
The new notionally Labor seat of Bullwinkel looks very close between Labor and Liberal.
In Forrest, indie Sue Chapman is running a fairly close third behind Labor, but the Greens how-to-vote card recommended Labor above Chapman, which makes things harder for Chapman.
In Fremantle, Kate Hulett is currently second and is a long way behind Josh Wilson, but the Liberals did recommend preferences to her above Labor this time; I suspect that as the count goes on Hulett will do less well than in the day votes and the mountain may be too steep, but we’ll see.
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Labor has captured more young Australian voters, pollster says
The pollster Kos Samaras says Labor has successfully captured more young Australian voters – the millennials and Gen Z – though not in first preferences.
While many voters in those generations strayed away from the major parties, he says they still preferenced Labor over the Coalition.
If you look at the 6 million-plus voters out there, the majority of them belong to these generations. They are not happy with the duopoly but when they preference they will preference the Labor party.
Samaras also tells the ABC says the Coalition have crafted a “false” narrative that voters are interested in “culture wars”.
This narrative that the Coalition has built in their heads around this mythical voter out there, that votes for minor parties that is rightwing, that loves the culture wars and gets into all this stuff, is false.
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Adam Bandt addresses supporters as Greens contemplate Queensland losses
The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, has told a crowd in Melbourne that “we may not come out of tonight with all three of our Queensland seats”.
The party is expected to lose Brisbane and Griffith, but hold on to Ryan. Bandt has also suffered a swing against him in his electorate of Melbourne, which was not mentioned in his speech. It remains tight.
Bandt says it’s still too tight to call the seat of Wills in Melbourne’s inner north, but says he would much rather be in the shoes of the Greens candidate, Samantha Ratnam, than Labor’s Peter Khalil. Ratnam has also addressed the crowd:
From the numbers we have tonight, we have had at least a 10% swing towards us. We still have a lot of counting to go – watch this space. We may need your help in the next couple of days for counting.
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What we know so far about Senate results
It’s early in the night for Senate results, but here’s what we know so far based on provisional quotas:
In NSW, Tony Sheldon and Tim Ayres are re-elected for the ALP, and Andrew Bragg for the Liberals.
In Queensland, Nita Green for the ALP and Paul Scarr for the LNP.
In South Australia, Marielle Smith and Karen Grogan for the ALP, and Alex Antic is returning for the Liberals.
In Tasmania, Carol Brown for the ALP, Claire Chandler for the Liberals and Nick McKim will be returning for the Greens.
In Victoria, Raff Ciccone and Jess Walsh for the ALP and James Paterson and Jane Hume for the Liberals.
In the ACT, David Pocock will be returning (and with a swing currently at +20 percentage points!).
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Clive Palmer promises to end spam texts
Clive Palmer has said “there will be no more spam texts” after Channel Seven hosts berated the Trumpet of Patriots chair for his advertising campaign.
Palmer, the special guest on Channel Seven’s election night coverage, was asked to promise Australia he would stop the messages, and his reply in the affirmative was met with cheers from the room.
The billionaire was looking pleased with himself after correctly calling the Liberal party would lose at least 10 seats, which is about what Guardian Australia is predicting at the moment.
Earlier in Seven’s coverage, Palmer said homelessness and food insecurity were major reasons for his political push at this election.
Asked why he spent millions of his own money on the campaign with little assured return, Palmer said he wanted to “stimulate debate”:
I think we have got 130,000 Australians homeless at the moment. We have 3.7 million Australians having trouble with food at the moment …
I think we put forward a lot of issues through advertising … Having disagreements is not a bad thing for a democracy … If your goal is to stimulate debate and to be here tonight, for example, to invest in the Seven Network with our advertisements … to keep journalists employed. If that’s a bad outcome, I don’t know how you could possibly say [that].
Seven’s political editor, Mark Riley, grinned at that – “You’re a true altruist,” he says – though the former Labor minister Bill Shorten was less impressed:
It’s a giant billionaire’s vanity project and you’re welcome to spend your money on whatever you want … You are the only person on the panel with a billion dollars. It is good you are giving some back. This country helped you make you rich. I am glad you are giving some back.
Palmer replied, “God bless you, Bill,” to which Shorten said, “God bless you too.”
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Greens face disappointment in Queensland
The Greens are facing a more disappointing night than they might have expected.
Having won three Queensland seats at the last election, they’re ahead in just one tonight – Ryan, held by Elizabeth Watson-Brown.
The ABC says the Greens are also ahead in the NSW seat of Richmond, which is held by Labor’s Justine Elliot.
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How are the teal independents going?
One of the headline stories of the 2022 election, the east coast Climate 200-backed independents look set to retain their seats.
The ABC’s Antony Green says Zali Steggall has been re-elected with “no difficulty” and has increased her margin.
So has the Wentworth MP, Allegra Spender, with a 4% swing in her favour against her Liberal challenger, Ro Knox.
Sophie Scamps in Mackellar also has a swing in her favour, while Zoe Daniel is “up” against the former Goldstein MP and challenger, Tim Wilson.
Green says:
Tim is ahead on first preferences. But Zoe Daniel will get a strong preference looking here.
Over in the west, Green says Kate Chaney has increased her vote, and “preferences suggest that she will go on to win that seat as well”.
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Albanese says government will ‘support reconciliation’
In 2022, as Anthony Albanese got up on stage having won the election, he promised the Uluru statement from the heart in full, and a referendum on the voice to parliament.
While the referendum failed, and there was no mention of the statement in tonight’s speech, Albanese mentioned First Nations Australians a few times, and said his government would “support reconciliation”.
We will be a government that supports reconciliation with First Nations people. Because we will be a stronger nation when we close the gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.
The issue of the voice kicked off in the final days of the campaign, after Penny Wong made remarks to the Betoota Advocate podcast that reflecting on the voice debate in the future would be similar to how we see the marriage equality debate now. “It’ll become something, it’ll be like, people go, ‘Did we even have an argument about that?’”, she told the podcast.
The Coalition used that to accuse the government of planning to bring back the voice, and while there had been some concern of how that might play out, it seems like that hasn’t had a lasting impact.
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‘I honestly didn’t think this night would happen,’ Labor’s Josh Burns says
The Labor MP Josh Burns is speaking at Port Melbourne Bowling Club, in his seat of Macnamara, which he is expected to retain. He begins his speech with an acknowledgment of country:
I do so as someone who respects our country and someone who respects the oldest living civilisation known to mankind … We don’t need culture wars in this country. We need respect for one another, respect for wisdom, connection and dignity and humility. You know, I look around this room and I honestly didn’t think this night would happen. We had blue to the right and green to the left, but the red army turned up.
He said it’s been a hard-fought battle and thanked those who volunteered for his campaign:
We have had a lot thrown at us and the lesson is one where you have to be true to yourself, and this party and this group of people in here have supported me through tough times, and so I just want to say that I really, from the bottom of my heart, appreciate everyone turning up for me and turning up for our incredible political organisation.
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Michaelia Cash sees Andrew Hastie as leadership material
Michaelia Cash has said she sees Andrew Hastie as leadership material, as Western Australian results begin to roll in and show the shadow defence minister re-elected with a swing towards him.
Cash told Channel Seven “Andrew’s always been seen as leadership material”, replying “yes” when asked to confirm she personally saw him as such:
I think Andrew Hastie is an outstanding member … I’m a very good friend of his. Andrew’s always been seen as leadership material … When you look at his background, former SAS, he is someone who comes with a great pedigree. He is someone that works, he does not take one vote for granted in that seat.
The former Labor frontbencher Bill Shorten, quick with a joke on Channel Seven’s coverage tonight, said Cash had moved quickly:
The king is dead. Long live the king. Sounds like you have anointed Andrew Hastie. You are one of the toughest operators.
Cash didn’t quite say no:
Bill, you should never put words into someone’s mouth.
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Chalmers says Senate result will decide how ambitious Labor can be
It will still take some more time for the Senate results to come in, and Jim Chalmers says that will have an impact on how ambitious his party is.
But Chalmers does say he still believes Labor has been an “ambitious government”.
It is hard to dramatically increase our representation in the Senate, so I think that is part of the story. I think this government is plenty ambitious, but I know there’s an appetite in the community for us in really uncertain times not just to explain to people how we will batten down the hatches when the global economy is going mad, but to build the better future.
Chalmers describes Anthony Albanese’s speech as “unifying”. Like many of us, Chalmers watched the address on TV, as he’s still in the ABC studio.
It was a speech that recognised we have had this political barney, the world is very uncertain and now is the time to stay together. I pay tribute to him for that speech. But I wanted to say about Peter Dutton’s speech, I think it was exceptionally gracious, Peter Dutton’s speech.
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Exuberant Labor supporters wait for appearance by Ali France
Scores of exuberant volunteers for Ali France are singing football chants of her name while they await the Labor candidate.
The mood is electric. The Queensland opposition leader and party hero, Steven Miles, is taking selfies. One female Labor volunteer has hopped up on another’s shoulders.
France is expected to make a victory speech in moments.
She is the first person to unseat a federal opposition leader ever. France has likely wrested the seat of Dickson off Peter Dutton at her third attempt.
Many of the volunteers have written “MP” on their shirts over her name.
One volunteer told the Guardian she had been caught up in the illegal robodebt scheme developed under the previous Liberal government.
Nearly in tears, she said she would never forgive Dutton or others who signed off on the program.
Others cited a lack of presence in the community for his defeat.
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Greens leader Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne in jeopardy
In the Greens leader Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne, the Australian Electoral Commission originally started the two-candidate count as Greens v Liberal but it is clear the two-candidate preferred will be Greens v Labor, so we will have to wait for the realignment of the seat in coming days, and at this stage Bandt’s seat is not safe.
Although Bandt is well ahead on primaries, the Liberal how-to-vote card recommends preferences to Labor and the preference flow could be strong enough for Labor to win.
The Greens are at this stage struggling in almost all their other target seats, except that they are still fairly well placed to hold Ryan.
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Jane Hume acknowledges ‘similarities’ between 2025 and 2022 defeats
Jane Hume has acknowledged there are “some similarities” between the issues the Coalition faced in 2025 and 2022, as leading Liberals discuss what comes next for their party.
Hume told Channel Seven she would return to the review she co-authored of the Coalition’s 2022 election defeat on Sunday:
The first thing I will be doing tomorrow is going through that election review … We will see what it was that we recommended after the last election and see how much of that had been implemented this election. Because there are some similarities, I can see.
The senator was asked if she would make a run for the House of Representative to go for the Liberal leadership, and joked: “What seat?”
Michaelia Cash, the Coalition’s leader in the Senate, had a more solemn plan for how she would spend her Sunday:
Let me tell you what will happen tomorrow. I will call candidates [and] thank people for working their guts out because they lost tonight. That isn’t a great feeling for them. I won’t be focusing on what is going to be happening in the Liberal party in the weeks to come. I’m going to focus on the people who matter to us as Liberals now.
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How the early Senate count is looking
An early look at the Senate. The count is never very advanced on the night and it is not recommended to read too much into the numbers there, but projecting off the House of Reps swings can be useful in getting some idea.
In Tasmania, the swing is so extreme as to push the Liberals well below two quotas, though at present they should pick up enough as the count goes on to hold on – but not by much.
At the moment Jacqui Lambie leads Lee Hanson for what would then be the final seat, but it is not yet a large lead.
In South Australia and NSW, if the current swings flow through to the Senate, One Nation should be well placed for the final position, while in Victoria there may be a contest between One Nation and Legalise Cannabis.
In WA, it is too early to say, and in Queensland at the moment, it looks like the expected 2 Labor, 2 LNP, One Nation and Greens.
In the ACT, David Pocock is romping into the lead but Labor is not in any trouble holding off the Liberals for the other seat.
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The seats predicted to change hands so far
Here’s a list of the seats that are predicted to change hands so far – needless to say, they’re all ALP gains from the Coalition:
Hughes, NSW
Bonner, Queensland
Dickson, Queensland
Leichhardt, Queensland
Petrie, Queensland
Sturt, SA
Bass, Tasmania
Braddon, Tasmania
And a chart of the seat difference:
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Albanese takes a bit of a stab at the Coalition, as he finishes up, saying Labor hasn’t had to “copy” its policies from overseas.
Australians have chosen the Australian Labor party as their government. Our government will choose the Australian way, because we are proud of who we are and all that we have built together in this country. We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else.
While I’m sure the partying will continue into the night, Albanese promises the work to “build Australia’s future” will begin tomorrow.
Ending his victory speech, he says:
Tomorrow, we dedicate ourselves to your service. We renew the great responsibility and the opportunity of government and with pride and purpose, optimism and determination, with faith in the fair go and faith in each other, we return to the work of building Australia’s future. Thank you all.
Albanese throws his hands up in the air again with Jodie and Nathan and walks off the stage with screams and cheers from the crowd.
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The thank yous certainly aren’t done yet – Albanese thanks Labor rank and file members, and “the mighty trade union movement of Australia” (that gets a huge cheer).
The Labor party national secretary, Paul Erickson, who Albanese says just became a dad during the campaign, gets a big shoutout. Albanese also thanks his team, led by Tim Gartrell.
Last but not least, to his family, Albanese starts with Nathan, and he too, becomes emotional.
To my son, Nathan. Who’s grown into a fine young man who I am just so proud of, thank you.
He gives Nathan a big hug, and then thanks Jodie.
I am so grateful for your support, your friendship and your love.
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PM thanks team and ‘Labor candidates in every seat’
On to thank yous, and there are many, Albanese starts with his deputy, Richard Marles.
He then thanks Penny Wong (who gets more shouts of “Penny! Penny!”).
My amazing Labor caucus … which, when you look at it across the benches, it is representative of the Australian people. I acknowledge all of our fantastic Labor candidates in every seat, who put up their hand, gave up their time for our cause and their community.
He then gives a special shoutout to Ali France, who has unseated the Liberal leader, Peter Dutton.
He also thanks his constituents, the voters in Grayndler.
From Lilyfield, Leichhardt, all the way [to] here. I’m sorry but I won’t be moving back for a little while.
It’s an incredible privilege to serve a community that you love and I do love it.
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Jubilant Anthony Albanese says ‘Labor will govern for every Australian’
Absolutely no shock here, but Anthony Albanese has got his Medicare card here tonight.
This card is not Labor red or Liberal blue, it is green and gold. It is a declaration of our national values in our national colours. Medicare belongs to all Australians.
Albanese promises:
Labor will govern for every Australian.
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Albanese says Australians want ‘the security of a roof over their head’
To Labor’s staple policies, Albanese says Australians want a “fair go”.
Australians who want a fair go at work, fair wages, fair wages for their work and the right to disconnect when they are done with work. Every Australian who deserves the security of a roof over their head or dreams of owning their own home, every woman who wants her contribution to our economy and society to be valued equally.
Albanese mentions cheaper childcare, the NDIS and free Tafe as key policies Labor will continue to support.
He adds that the country wants to see climate action and renewable energy.
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‘We are all Australians,’ Albanese says
Albanese says all Australians belong “no matter who you voted for”, and implores everyone to reflect on what we “have in common”.
No matter who you voted for, no matter where you live, no matter how you worship or who you love, whether you belong to a culture that has known and cared for this great continent for 65,000 years or you have chosen our nation as your home and enriched our society with your contribution, we are all Australians.
Albanese says he won’t take the win for granted, and promises he’ll be back to work “tomorrow”.
From tomorrow, tomorrow, back at work. Maybe not everyone here. And that is probably for the best. We take out this task, with new hope, new confidence and new determination.
He says Australia is “turning a corner” and adds that there will be “no one left behind” – a staple line of the 2022 and 2025 campaigns.
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Albanese stops Labor supporters from booing Peter Dutton
Anthony Albanese says Australians have chosen the “Australian way” in the face of challenges globally.
Australians have chosen to face global challenges the Australian way, looking after each other while building for the future. And to serve these values, meet these challenges, these opportunities, and build that better and stronger future, Australians have chosen a majority Labor government.
As he takes a sip of water, the crowd shouts “Albo! Albo! Albo!” and he quips, “I think Australians have got the name!”
Albanese says he’s spoken to Peter Dutton and wishes him and his family the very best. A few in the crowd try to boo, but Albanese quickly puts a stop to it.
What we do in Australia is we treat people with respect. I thank Peter for his generous words at the end of what has been a very hard-fought campaign.
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Anthony Albanese gives acknowledgment of country in victory speech
There’s raucous applause and cheering for Anthony Albanese as he gets on stage.
He throws his arms up with his fiancee, Jodie, son, Nathan, and Penny Wong.
Serving as your prime minister is the greatest honour of my life. And it is with a deep sense of humility and a profound sense of responsibility that the first thing that I do tonight is to say thank you to the people of Australia for the chance to continue to serve the best nation on Earth. And I acknowledge the traditional owners of the land on which we stand.
That last sentence gets a big shout from the crowd. He continues:
And I pay my respects to elders past, present and emerging today and every day.
He says the Labor values are fairness, aspiration and opportunity.
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‘Tonight we start the new chapter,’ Wong says
Penny Wong thanks all the volunteers and “believers”.
Friends, three years ago the Australian people made a collective decision, to turn the page and write a new future for ourselves. Tonight … together we start the new chapter. We will write this next chapter so all Australians are part of our nation’s story.
Wong takes a thinly veiled stab at Peter Dutton’s attacks of Anthony Albanese as a “weak” leader.
Wong says Albanese shows “real strength”.
A leader with a conviction that builds Australia’s future. Friends, some might want to mimic the worst of other countries, Albo always backs what’s best about our country.
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Penny Wong addresses Labor supporters
Penny Wong looks very happy as crowds chant “Penny! Penny!” at Labor HQ.
She starts: “Thank you for believing in Labor! Thank you for believing in the power of this great nation.”
Tonight’s result couldn’t have gone much better for Labor. Wong says Australia is a nation of “courage and kindness”.
From the oldest continuing civilisation on the planet, and I acknowledge the traditional owners, friends, we love this country.
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ABC calls seat of Braddon for Labor
It seems like Anthony Albanese and Anne Urquhart’s gamble has paid off, because the ABC is calling the seat of Braddon for Labor.
The ABC says there’s been a 15% two-party swing to Labor in the seat, which was won at the last election by the Liberal party on an 8% margin.
Antony Green says the Labor candidate Rebecca White has retained the seat of Lyons for Labor, from the retiring Labor MP Brian Mitchell.
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It’s been a huge night, and a surprising one for many.
There’s also been a huge amount of content here, so to wrap up the main points of what we’ve seen tonight, here’s the fabulous Matilda Boseley:
James McGrath warns against following Trump
The Liberals will have a full postmortem in the coming days and weeks, but many in the party have spoken tonight about the impact Donald Trump has had.
McGrath says it would be “dangerous” for the Coalition to hold similar positions to the Trump administration.
It would be dangerous for my party, and I speak as a Ronald Reagan Republican and a George Bush Republican, speaking to Donald Trump’s positions. We are a free-trade party and pro-Ukraine and we should continue to be centre-right.
We must resist that path focus on where middle Australia is.
McGrath is asked what the review should look at, but he’s reluctant to say.
He says, “I am hurting”, that it’s been a “bruising” result, and doesn’t want to make “ad hoc comments” on what did and didn’t work during the election.
It is about making sure traditional centre right values, traditional conservative values appeal to the modern country.
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Michaelia Cash says Dutton’s defeat in Dickson ‘a great loss’
Liberal frontbencher Michaelia Cash has paid tribute to Peter Dutton after he spoke, conceding defeat at the federal election and in his own seat of Dickson:
Cash held out hope Dutton would hold his seat of Dickson but said his prospective defeat was “a great loss”:
As you would expect from a great leader, that was a great speech. What I liked about Peter was there was no bitterness, no recrimination, but more than that he looked at the Australian people, looked at the Liberal party and the people who voted for us in particular and said, ‘I take full responsibility’. That, to me, defines the leadership of Peter Dutton. That is a true leader. And I think it is a great loss for us.
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Early WA results coming in and some messy seats of interest in Victoria
The earliest booths from Western Australia are starting to come in, but this looks like being another election where the West arrives at the count when the party is already over. The early swings there are back and forth and don’t suggest a lot of seats will change hands.
Nationwide Labor has already made many more gains than it has seats at risk and so the government is heading for a much-increased majority.
There are a few messy seats of interest, one being Calwell where Labor’s Basem Abdo (replacing Maria Vamvakinou) has a double-digit swing against the party on the primary vote and the former Hume mayor Carly Moore could overtake the Liberal candidate and be a threat off (currently) 14.5% of the vote.
In Monash, there’s a long way to go to see whether the independent Deb Leonard can make the final two, in which case the Liberal primary for Mary Aldred is low.
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Labor nabs seats in Melbourne’s eastern suburbs
In Melbourne’s eastern suburbs, it is looking increasingly likely Labor will hold on to Aston and win the seats of Deakin and Menzies off the Liberals.
In Deakin, which was one of the most marginal seats going into the race, Labor’s Matt Gregg is on track to nab the seat off the Coalition housing spokesperson, Michael Sukkar.
Over in Menzies, Labor’s Gabriel Ng is also on track to take the seat from the Liberal MP Keith Wolahan.
Victorian Labor insiders are saying this is a reaction to the Coalition’s election commitment to cut funding to the Suburban Rail Loop – one of the state Labor government’s flagship infrastructure projects, which runs through the three electorates.
They think the result should bring an end to any talk of leadership moves against the Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan. But on that front, it is definitely too early to say.
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As Dutton finishes his concession speech, Labor supporters at Albanese’s election night event give him a salute – of sorts. Spontaneously in the crowd, hundreds of people raise their arms and wave goodbye at the TV screen as Dutton departs the stage, hugging his family.
Another cry of “Albo, Albo” goes up. We are getting word that Albanese has arrived at the event, to speak momentarily.
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Liberal party will ‘rebuild’, Dutton says
Dutton ends his address by saying the party will rebuild and will stick to its values and beliefs.
He says the Labor party was able to define the party during the campaign.
Our Liberal family’s hurting across the country tonight, including in my electorate of Dickson, and I want to say thank you very much to all of them. I love this country and have fought hard for it.
We have been defined by our opponents in this election, which is not a true story of who we are, but we will rebuild from here.
Dutton is standing with his family on the stage, and hugs them as he ends his address.
The crowd cheers hard for him and clap as he walks through.
The media try to stop him and ask some questions, but he continues straight past.
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Peter Dutton says ‘it is not our night’ after losing seat
Moving to thank yous, Dutton acknowledges the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, and deputy leader Sussan Ley. He also thanks his shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, and “other senior members”.
It is not our night, as I point out, and there are good members and candidates who have lost their seats, their ambition, and I am sorry for that.
He thanks his team and staff, he says they’re “just amazing”. He also gives a shoutout to his media team.
Getting emotional, he then thanks his family. Someone from the crown shouts “I love you”.
I am blessed to have an amazing family, Bec and Harry and Tom. They have stood by me through thick and thin and I am grateful for the support and their love.
Dutton says Dickson had a “one-term curse”, but he held the seat for 24 years and thanks his constituents.
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Dutton says Albanese should be ‘very proud of what he’s achieved’
Dutton says he accepts responsibility for the loss, and has spoken to Anthony Albanese to wish him congratulations.
Dutton says Albanese should be “very proud of what he’s achieved”.
Dutton says he’s also spoken to the Labor candidate Ali France, who will be the new member for Dickson.
I congratulated the prime minister and wished he Jodie and Nathan all the very best and I said to the prime minister that his mother would be incredibly proud of his achievement tonight and he should be proud of what he has achieved.
Ali and I have been combatants for a number of elections but she was successful in Dickson tonight, and she will do a good job as a local member. She lost her son Henry in tragic circumstances, and no parent should ever go through that. Equally I said to Ali that her son Henry would be incredibly proud of her tonight and she will do a good job as the local member for Dickson and I wish her all the very best.
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Peter Dutton concedes defeat as he addresses Liberal supporters
Peter Dutton is addressing Liberal crowds in Brisbane, to concede defeat.
Not only has the Coalition lost to Labor, Dutton looks set to lose his own seat.
Dutton tries to remain positive.
We worked hard every day over the course of the last three years to do our best for our amazing country. One of the great honours of being the leader of this party is that we have met people from every side and every corner, the length and breadth of this country, and there are many amazing stories, people have sacrificed and the people who are doing it hard at the moment, and I have always wanted, in public life, for our country and the best for every Australian.
Dutton says the highlight of his career has been as defence minister.
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National swing to Labor is 4.7%, live votes tracker shows
The national swing to Labor is currently 4.7%, which is large in terms of national swings. However, in some seats the swing is massive – this chart shows the 20 biggest (excluding WA seats with early counts), from Braddon which has a 15.4% swing to Anne Urquhart, to Fadden in Queensland, which has a 8.75% swing to Labor.
You can see more swing figures in the swing-o-metre on our results page here.
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Bandt says many Labor MPs may win Greens seats on Liberal preferences
The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, has congratulated Anthony Albanese and Labor on its campaign.
He says it’s too early to call many of the seats where the Greens vote appears to have gone backwards.
So far, he is not claiming victory in Wills or conceding defeat in Macnamara. There has also been no reference to Queensland seats that have been called as an ALP gain. But he has acknowledged the results may be bad:
We also know there are a number of seats that are too close to call and may be too close to call tonight.
One of the things that may happen … is some Labor MPs may get elected on Liberal preferences. We will watch with interest and see whether that happens in the coming hours.
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Anthony Albanese on his way to Labor election function
Anthony Albanese has left Kirribilli House and is driving to Labor’s election night party. The prime ministerial car, C1, has pulled out of the driveway past police officers, reporters and a handful of cheering neighbours with their dogs.
Albanese and his fiancee, Jodie Haydon, gave a wave to Channel Seven’s reporter on the scene as they began their journey south-west to Canterbury-Hurlstone Park RSL Club in the prime minister’s electorate of Grayndler.
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Adam Bandt says Labor win a repudiation of ‘Trump-style politics’
The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, is claiming credit for Labor beating Peter Dutton in Dickson.
One thing is clear, we have kept Dutton out. We said very clearly we do not want Trump-style politics coming to Australia and Peter Dutton lost his seat.
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Labor election party erupts with each seat call on ABC
The mood is like a rock concert in the Labor election party. With each seat called by Antony Green on the ABC, every surprise seat falling their way, the mood kicks up another notch.
An enormous cheer went up when Jerome Laxale, in hyper-marginal Bennelong, was projected to win by a 60-40 margin. The same when their candidates for Banks and Hughes were predicted to take surprise wins in seats that Labor had barely talked about.
The room here is bursting at the seams. Some senators are starting to filter into the room to hero’s welcomes – Tony Sheldon and Tim Ayres are walking around the room.
I’m chatting to a Labor staffer and incredulously say something along the lines of “what a surprise, how did you do this?” and another Labor supporter turns around at my voice. I apologise for disturbing him. He cracks into a smile: “Don’t say sorry, I’m having the time of my life.”
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Jim Chalmers says Angus Taylor partly why Labor ‘outperformed expectations’
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, tells the ABC “I couldn’t believe my luck” when the Coalition opposed Labor’s tax cuts and that he believes his counterpart, Angus Taylor, is “one of the biggest reasons we’ve outperformed expectations”.
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Adam Bandt arrives to address the Greens election party.
Adam Bandt arrives at the Greens election party in Melbourne. pic.twitter.com/W9HhMM8Q0H
— Henry Belot (@Henry_Belot) May 3, 2025
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Labor claiming victory in Bass, Bonner, Griffith and Sturt
The energy minister, Chris Bowen, tells Channel Nine that Labor is now claiming victory in the seats of Bass, Bonner, Griffith and Sturt.
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Tehan won’t rule out abandoning nuclear policy
Asked whether the Coalition will stick to its nuclear policy, Dan Tehan says the party has to “consider everything”.
Like after 2022, when the party did a full postmortem, Tehan says the Coalition needs a “proper review” of the result.
We have got to consider everything that has happened. What we need is a proper review. A proper review of all the policies, a proper review of how we campaigned. And we have to do that, over a period of time.
You can’t come out on the night of an election and say, this is what you should have done, this is what you shouldn’t have done. That is for the cold, hard light of day, then you have to analyse things and do it properly.
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Tehan staves off challenge from independent in Wannon
The Liberal MP Dan Tehan seems to have retained his seat of Wannon, staving off a challenge from the independent candidate, Alex Dyson.
Tehan thanks his colleagues who have lost their seats tonight for their service, and for “being a part of the democratic process”.
Particularly to Peter Dutton, I have been on the road all day but I understand there is trouble in his seat. Thank you for your leadership over the last three years.
Tehan’s name has come up as a potential leadership contender and the ABC asks whether he’ll stick his hat in the ring. He says he hasn’t “had any time” to think about the future.
With what has happened, you need time to consider, time to think and get an understanding of what has occurred.
David Speers tries to push him, but Tehan won’t budge.
Look, I’m going to be thinking about what has happened here. I’m going to be thinking about what has happened right across the country. But at the moment, I have to say, David, my thoughts are with my colleagues who have lost their seat.
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Jacinta Price says losing Peter Dutton a ‘huge loss’
Price says losing Peter Dutton is a “huge loss”, and promises to “own [their] mistakes” as the party moves forward.
The Coalition has said Labor’s “mud slinging” has damaged their campaign in recent days. Price adds that the Coalition should have announced their policies sooner and called Labor’s “lies” out “earlier”.
I would have to say that certainly we could have provided our policies sooner to the Australian people to have a better understanding of what we wanted to do … We could have called out his lies earlier on in the piece.
But we will learn more as we go forward, as to the mistakes we have made. And own those mistakes and make sure that we don’t repeat them going forward. Because, ultimately, it is how Australia is going to go, going forward that is our greatest concern.
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‘Mud sticks,’ Coalition senator Jacinta Price says on loss
The LNP Senator Jacinta Price is asked whether she’s part of the Coalition’s loss tonight. On the ABC, Price says mud “sticks”, accusing Labor of lying during the campaign.
If you sling enough mud in an election, it sticks.
Price sent some shockwaves after saying “Make Australia Great Again” during the campaign, strongly evoking Donald Trump’s Maga chant. It was at a time when the Coalition was trying to distance itself from the US.
Price won’t take responsibility for the Coalition’s loss, and accuses host Sarah Ferguson of slinging mud for bringing up the chant, as well as a photo uncovered of Price wearing a Maga hat.
There is a whole lot of mud you just slung right there, can I just say, in terms of wanting this country to be great. Donald Trump doesn’t own those four words. Right? Because the media can go through your personal Facebook photos and find a picture that was taken, in jest, at Christmas time, and then smear you with it, that is the problem. That is the issue.
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Hume claims election lost due to ‘so many lies’ over nuclear power costs
The Liberal frontbencher Jane Hume has made no promises over whether the Liberal party will drop its nuclear power proposal while claiming the election was lost due to “so many lies” over nuclear energy costs.
Hume was asked on Channel Seven’s election night panel why Peter Dutton “failed” in this campaign, replying:
This was an extraordinary result. It was one of those ones where it was so disappointing to take part in an election where there were so many lies told. There was surface-level lies that everybody knew about, like the $600bn [spent] on nuclear. That’s nonsense, you knew it was nonsense … there is no way either of you can look me in the eye and tell me you thought nuclear energy cost $600bn.
Will the Coalition take nuclear energy to the next election? After panellists predicted the Coalition would have to dump its nuclear proposal, Hume offered no commitments, though she made a historical comparison of two former Liberal leaders:
John Hewson lost an election on a GST and John Howard won an election on GST.
Hume also repeats the proverbial warning she offered yesterday, telling the panel they are “already reading the entrails before the chicken is gutted” by ignoring postal vote results, to which former the Labor frontbencher Bill Shorten interjects:
The chicken ain’t squawking. The chicken is on the block. It’s drumsticks and legs.
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Swing towards Josh Burns of 5.41% on first-preference votes
We’re finally getting results in Macnamara, which are so far looking very good for Labor MP Josh Burns.
Of the 115,000 votes in the seat, 22,713 have been counted and there looks to be a decent swing towards Burns of 5.41% on first-preference votes.
The Greens’ Sonya Semmens, meanwhile, is down -3.34% in first preference votes and, despite all the talk of Liberals’ Benson Saulo being able to secure 40% of first preference votes, he’s sitting at 25% at the moment.
Burns is expected to arrive any minute at the Port Melbourne Bowling Club.
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Tehan coy on whether he will run for Liberal leadership
Liberal MP Dan Tehan – who appears to be on track to retain his seat of Wannon in regional Victoria – is coy on whether he will run to succeed Peter Dutton as leader of their party.
Asked if he would stand for the Liberal leadership, Tehan said he had been busy driving around his electorate today and hadn’t had time to think of much else:
I haven’t had any time to think about anything else other than to get a bit of a sense of what’s happening nationally.
Tehan was then pushed by Channel Nine’s Andrew Probyn, who said he considered that response a sign he would in fact run for the leadership, to which Tehan replied with a cricket reference:
I always loved to play with a straight bat. But seriously, none of us expected this. And can I say to the leader of the opposition, Peter Dutton, I think the way that he has brought the party together in these last three years, the way that he’s unified the party, and the way that he’s led us, and everyone was 100% behind him the whole time.
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Graham Richardson says ‘if Angus Taylor is the answer, it’s a stupid question’
Former Labor minister Graham Richardson tells Sky News:
This is a big win for Albo and a huge disappointment for the Liberals because they’ve got to ask themselves: ‘Where do we go now? We’ve tried Dutton - what else have we got?’ Well not much because if Angus Taylor is the answer, it’s a stupid question.
He’s not the only person who’s warned against the Liberals choosing Taylor as their successor. Jim Chalmers had some scathing remarks of him on the ABC a little earlier.
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Hume on Dutton: ‘If this is true, we will be very sad’
Jane Hume has offered a political eulogy for Peter Dutton as the Liberal leader looks set to lose his seat.
Appearing on Channel Seven, Hume says:
We haven’t seen pre-poll [votes] and the postals yet, they are almost 50% of the vote. But if this is true, we will be very sad. Peter is a very popular colleague among his colleagues … He is a very good man.
Hume told the panel about a pilot she’d spoken to once while working as a senator:
He said: “I think he is terrific and I’ll tell you why. I met him at a sausage sizzle and I was wearing my civvies … and I told him I was a Qantas pilot. A year later I was walking through an airport, wearing my uniform, and Peter Dutton was walking in a different direction and looked over and caught my eye and said, ‘John, hi, how are you doing? Peter Dutton.’ That is an amazing thing, to recognise somebody from your own who you haven’t seen for a year and a completely different context.” He said: “He had me at that moment.” He was a really popular member of his own community.
The former Labor frontbencher Bill Shorten chimed in at the end, telling her “that was a great eulogy”, to which Hume replied:
We are not at the eulogy stage yet, let me tell you.
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Peter Dutton has lost his seat of Dickson
Guardian Australia is predicting, like everyone else, that Peter Dutton will lose his seat of Dickson to Labor’s Ali France.
France is now leading on primary vote alone, and has a 10.4% swing towards her on two-party-preferred count.
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Nonplussed Joyce says ‘we all knew what was going to happen’
Barnaby Joyce is fairly nonplussed, saying “we all knew what was going to happen” tonight, but “never say the dog is out of the fight”.
Joyce gives an anecdote of seeing Annastacia Palaszczuk “down and out” before coming back the next election to win.
Peta Credlin says let’s not count the party out – “the National party hasn’t lost sight of who they are and who votes for them and what they stand for. The Liberal party has gone through contortions.”
The panel is asking the question of whether Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie will be named leader. Credlin says it will be tough for a leader to do the job from WA (as Hastie is).
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Chris Uhlmann says Coalition result ‘horrific’
Sky News’ journalist Chris Uhlmann says the Coalition’s primary vote being down to 30% is “horrific.”
Uhlmann says of course thing can still change “dramatically” but the “distance is set now so vast they can’t make it up. You could see the Liberal party losing seats from the position they’re in which leaves them not one or two elections from government, what you’ll see in the Coalition is an existential threat”.
Uhlmann says the teal seats in Victoria are not coming back, and neither is the Coalition picking up the outer suburbs of Sydney and Brisbane.
Where does this party go? This is a party that will tear itself apart while it tries to work out how it articulates itself to appeal to enough people in Australia to be able to form a government in future.
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‘Surely not’: Liberal supporters struggle with predictions Dutton has lost Dickson
Two Australian flags have been placed in front of the ABC coverage at Coalition HQ, making it hard for some to see predictions that Peter Dutton has lost his seat of Dickson.
“What does that say. Are they saying he’s lost? It’s too early,” one attendee says.
“No. He’s been there for 24 years, surely not.”
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Peter Dutton on track to lose Dickson
Well it looks like the Liberal party will have to elect a new leader, with Peter Dutton on track to lose his seat of Dickson.
James McGrath says the party will have to do a lot of “soul searching”
But he says he won’t do a “post mortem” tonight.
It is not a good night for us. There will be a lot of soul-searching in the party as to how we take the party forward and what we need to do to make sure we are an election-winning force.
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Supporters at Greens HQ in Melbourne cheer ABC’s Dutton call
There’s not been much to cheer about for the Greens in Melbourne so far, but there was a huge cheer when the ABC called Peter Dutton’s seat for Dickson. Adam Bandt will address the crowd shortly.
The Greens HQ in Melbourne when the ABC announced a Labor gain in Dickson pic.twitter.com/3Eig3nYTwy
— Henry Belot (@Henry_Belot) May 3, 2025
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Christopher Pyne says Liberal party needs to move to centre
Former Liberal minister Christopher Pyne said the party needs to move to the centre after today’s election result.
If there’s one lesson the Liberal party has to learn out of tonight’s result, which is hardly a good one, is that we have to remember that we are about moving to the centre.
You tack to the centre to win elections and you add votes together one group after another until you get to a majority. And that’s why the Liberal party has won many elections in the last 80 years. We’ve lost that sense of that’s what we’re supposed to be doing, and we’re seeing the results of that tonight.
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Twenty-five per cent of the vote counted
About 25% counted and while the projected swings could well cool when pre-polls start reporting in larger numbers, in many seats the damage is already done.
The Coalition aren’t winning ALP seats in any numbers and appear to be already projecting too badly to save Bonner, Dickson, Hughes, Leichhardt, Sturt, Bass and Braddon.
They are also still in trouble in Banks, Deakin and now Menzies. On the plus side the Coalition is holding up better against independents than many models projected, and is not yet losing in regional seats such as Calare and Cowper. (Bradfield is dicey; that is the clearest risk at this stage, though Flinders is also interesting and the count there will
probably need to be re-aligned).
The Greens are looking competitive in Wills but are currently not looking a chance of pushing Josh Burns into third in Macnamara (he could well keep his lead on primaries). In Richmond, Labor’s place in the top two is not yet certain (given minor right preferences will push up the National) so this may be one to watch in coming days, and in Bean the independent, Jessie Price, is so far not going away.
But Labor’s few seats at risk are random unusual cases, none of which are yet clearly lost. At this stage Labor is projecting for a result way above what even the most optimistic final polls had but we will have to see if that holds up with more counting.
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James McGrath says to ‘wait for the figures’ on Dutton’s seat
Liberal senator James McGrath looks pretty shocked after the ABC’s just called the seat of Dickson for Labor.
McGrath takes a second to pause, and says slowly:
Let’s wait for the figures to come in … the seat of Dickson is a tough seat as Antony Green said, these are on the day figures, we need pre-poll figures.
Chalmers seems a little surprised, saying he thought Ali France’s chance was “50/50 at best”
He points to nuclear as an issue which he thinks had an impact in the seat.
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Seven months after LNP came to power in Queensland, voters deliver unexpected swing to Labor
A quick word on the unpredictable way Queenslanders spray their votes around.
Before last October, Labor had won 11 of 12 state elections. In the same period, the Coalition outpolled Labor at all but two (1993 and 2007) federal polls.
And so, seven months after David Crisafulli’s LNP came to power in a landslide, of course Queenslanders have delivered an unexpected swing to Labor, including in seats that weren’t even in the conversation this week.
Sources from both parties say things will be close in Petrie, Bowman and Longman.
Labor appears to have won three Greens seats, including two where the common wisdom was that the LNP was the biggest threat.
And Labor feels increasingly confident in Bonner (where popular former councillor Kara Cook ran an under-the-radar campaign), Leichhardt and, whisper it quietly, Dickson, held by the opposition leader, Peter Dutton.
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Peter Dutton set to lose Dickson
The ABC’s Antony Green predicts Peter Dutton has lost his seat of Dickson.
Antony Green says Peter Dutton is “on track” to lose his seat.
Nearly 32% of the votes have been counted, and Green says there’s a 9.2% swing towards Labor’s Ali France.
It’s France’s third attempt to win the seat.
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McKenzie says Coalition harmed by negative Trump sentiment
The Nationals senator Bridget McKenzie says negative sentiment towards Donald Trump harmed the Coalition.
She told Channel Nine:
I think that the Trump factor has absolutely had a role in the election. It was weaponised by one side when, I think, obviously, we made very clear that the national interest, putting Australians first, was how we were going to approach foreign affairs, including our relationship with the US.
I think the tariff of the uncertainty globally, not just economically but strategically, particularly in our region have all played on people’s minds.
She adds:
No doubt, the election of President Trump and the curveballs he threw into the global trading market have had an impact here at home.
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‘Bad, very bad’: Liberals grapple with election result
Liberal MPs are preparing for the worst as early election results point to a very bad night for the Coalition and Peter Dutton.
With predictions Liberal candidates could win a handful of seats in Melbourne’s outer suburbs now looking extremely unlikely to be borne out, party members contacted by Guardian Australia say claims that internal campaigning polling was better than published opinion polls appear to have been bluster.
“Bad, very bad,” was the assessment of one Liberal speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Dutton’s position as opposition leader will come under serious pressure if the opposition fails to win any seats from the government – and that’s if he somehow manages to hold on to his seat of Dickson.
“If we go backwards, there’s obviously going to be repercussions,” one frontbencher said.
If we end up with less seats than we started with, all those in the leadership would have to take a hard look at themselves.
Several Liberal MPs contacted before Saturday’s result said a net gain of five seats for the Coalition was the pass mark for Dutton, with anything less than putting his future in jeopardy.
A senior party strategist involved in the campaign said Dutton was very unlikely to survive as opposition leader.
“That’s not happening,” they said.
– With Tom McIlroy
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There’s been almost no reaction to the news that Labor will form government – either in minority or majority – at Greens HQ in Melbourne.
It’s not looking like a great night for the Greens, but this doesn’t appear to have filtered through to a lot of the party faithful here. The ABC coverage is turned down, the music has been blaring, and few people are glued to the screens.
As Labor HQ in Sydney erupts into applause, Greens staffers are on stage in Melbourne telling the crowd it door knocked close to 95,000 homes in Macnamara. The staffers on stage addressing the crowd have not mentioned the call for Labor at all.
Most of the chatter in the crowd here is focused on the outcome in Dickson, Peter Dutton’s seat.
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The finance minister, Katy Gallagher, on Channel Nine, says Labor is now considering it has gained the Brisbane seat of Bonner from the LNP.
The energy minister, Chris Bowen, also on the panel, said indications from Labor scrutineers counting pre-poll in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson are positive.
From one pre-poll station, Bowen says:
Our primary vote is up 4% and Peter Dutton is down 8% so we’re not yet claiming Dickson, but we are saying it’s a Labor lean.
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Chalmers blames Angus Taylor for Liberals’ loss
While the Liberal camp might be considering their future, Jim Chalmers says they should be looking cautiously at leadership contender Angus Taylor.
Liberal figures including James Paterson and James McGrath seem to have backed Dutton, and McGrath said just moments ago that Dutton could be leader “as long as he wants”.
But Chalmers was scathing of his shadow counterpart.
I don’t intend to dance on Peter Dutton’s grave, but I think the big missing part of the story we’re talking about tonight is Angus Taylor. And so many of the issues that the Liberal campaign had, can be traced back to Angus.
Peter Dutton did not have a good campaign, but the main alternative, Angus Taylor, arguably had a campaign which was at least as bad, if not worse.
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It’s still very early days (or hours, perhaps) but Labor’s position in the Hunter and Port Stephens regions is looking strong. Only 5% or 6% of the vote has actually been counted but let’s take an initial look.
In the Hunter, held by Labor MP Dan Repacholi, Labor appears to have scored almost a 5% swing toward them, widening the margin between Labor and the Nationals candidate, Sue Gilroy.
Again, we’ve got to preface that there are still many votes to count, but it’s a seat to watch for a number of reasons. For example, Hunter has been held by Labor since 1910. It’s also where the former Liddell coal-fired power station is located, which Peter Dutton has earmarked as a possible future nuclear reactor site.
While Labor has increased its primary vote by a few percentage points so far, the Nationals have gone backwards. Instead, the One Nation candidate, Stuart Bonds, has picked more primary votes than Gilroy.
Closer to the coast is Paterson, Labor has also increased its margin against the Liberals for now. Both the Labor incumbent, Meryl Swanson, and the Liberals candidate, Laurence Antcliff, have suffered considerable swings against them on first preference votes with independent and local mayor, Philip Penfold, picking up about 8% of the vote already.
Energy has similarly been a point of debate in the seat, beyond cost of living challenges. In Paterson, there has been a loud group pushing back against offshore wind farms. We might not get a result until much later tonight but it’s an interesting two seats to watch.
Read more:
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Labor's election night party erupts in cheers
Labor’s election night party has erupted as ABC’s Antony Green calls the election for Anthony Albanese.
People are hugging, crying, laughing. There are chants of “Albo, Albo, Albo”.
Immediately after, the ABC coverage discuss the potential for Peter Dutton to lose Dickson. A couple behind me turn to each other, shocked and yelling “oh my God” to each other.
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Pyne fears Coalition could have worst election result in its history
The former Liberal frontbencher Christopher Pyne, on Channel Nine’s election night panel, said this election loss could make history.
Pyne says the main question left, beyond whether Labor wins a majority, is: “Will this be the worst result for the Coalition since our party’s inception?”
Meanwhile, the shadow transport minister, Bridget McKenzie, has said a Coalition victory in this election would be “miraculous”.
The Nationals senator said on Channel Nine’s election panel:
I think it’d be miraculous from here.
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Coalition HQ barely notices as Sky News calls election for Labor
A truly bizarre moment at Coalition HQ as Sky News calls the election for Labor.
Almost no one noticed.
The room at Brisbane’s W Hotel has started to slowly fill with party faithful and campaign volunteers, who have broken into groups and are mostly not looking at the coverage.
The mood certainly isn’t glum. But it’s almost like many of the attenders have forgotten what’s playing out on the big screen. As the room has filled up, the sound from the coverage has become inaudible.
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‘Peter will stay leader as long as he wants to be leader’, says McGrath
Senator James McGrath was asked a moment ago whether Peter Dutton will remain as leader (this was just moments before the election was called for Labor).
McGrath said, “Peter will stay leader as long as he wants to be leader”, a similar message to what Senator James Paterson said earlier.
McGrath told the ABC, Dutton has led a “unified team”.
Asked whether there will be conversations by the party room for their future, McGrath says:
From experience that does happen, but the party room would strongly support Peter Dutton.
There’s some back and forth with the panel, but McGrath won’t budge.
My reading is the party room … is the party room would strongly support Peter Dutton.
He adds:
Having these types of conversations is not helpful while the votes are still coming.
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Labor wins election with Anthony Albanese to be returned as PM
Guardian Australia, the ABC, Sky News, Nine and Seven have all called the election for Labor.
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Victorian Labor supporters cheer early results in Deakin and Aston
Big cheers at the Macnamara MP Josh Burns’ election party for Matt Gregg, Labor’s candidate in Deakin, now held by the Liberal MP Michael Sukkar.
Sukkar hung on in Deakin with a margin of 0.2% in 2022, but due to a redistribution his margin this time around is even narrower at just 0.02%.
Still very early in the count but there’s a 2.5% swing towards Labor in the seat, in Melbourne’s outer east.
Labor is also holding on in the nearby seat of Aston, which many within the party had consigned to losing just hours ago.
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Newcastle and Bendigo identified as ‘maverick’ seats by AEC
The AEC has identified two seats as “maverick”, which means the candidates expected to be in the final two are not those in the final two based on primary vote counts. This means that the two-party-preferred figure, which uses the preference counts of all votes, will be unavailable temporarily.
In the seat of Newcastle, the Greens are in second position. Liberals were expected, based on the previous election. In Bendigo, the Nationals are now second on primary vote, and Liberals would have been expected based on 2022 results.
The two-party-preferred figures will be made available again for these seats in the coming days.
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Pollster Tony Barry says the Liberal party may hold only one seat in Melbourne
Former Liberal party strategist and pollster Tony Barry says Liberal MPs Keith Wolahan and Michael Sukkar could both lose their Melbourne seats.
The two seats hang on a razor thin margin, and Barry tells the ABC the Victorian party leadership will have questions to answer from the way things are looking.
Victoria continues to look very bad … I can see a scenario where Jason Wood is the only Liberal MP in Melbourne …
Big questions need to be asked of the Victorian Liberal party again, they continue to find ways to fail.
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LNP members fear of losing half a dozen across Queensland
Liberal National party members in Brisbane report “a very tough day” at the booths, as hope of winning two city seats has become fear of losing half a dozen across Queensland.
A small number of volunteers have arrived at Coalition HQ in Brisbane ahead of the opposition leader, Peter Dutton. There have been stony faces when the Sky News coverage focuses on Queensland seats, including some that had not even been in the discussion.
“I don’t think there’s any good news,” an LNP source says.
The party had grown increasingly concerned about Bonner, in Brisbane’s bayside, which was on a relatively tight margin. But now concern has spread to Bowman and Forde, further south, which had been considered relatively safe.
And, of course, a lot of the focus here is on Dutton’s own seat of Dickson.
It is worth remembering that we have been here before. Dutton has previously won Dickson by a handful of votes. Labor got excited in 2016. GetUp ran a massive campaign in 2019. And it was talked about again in 2022. For the seat to fall when its MP is opposition leader would be extraordinary.
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Hume and Shorten disagree on ‘misleading’ work-from-home policy
Jane Hume has described the Coalition’s dumped proposal to stop public servants working from home as a “misleading policy”, in an apparent slip of the tongue.
She was chiming in on Channel Seven’s coverage as Bill Shorten was describing the Coalition’s struggling campaign:
They attacked the public service, so they want to cut them. If you work from home in the outer suburbs, they have had that confusing policy.
Hume hit back to correct him, saying “misleading policy”, likely a reference to her past claims Labor misled voters over the work-from-home proposal:
It was for Canberra public servants. You guys said it was for all women.
Shorten was quick to agree with her:
Your policy was misleading because you are for one thing and another.
I have been politer about your policy doo-doo than you were.
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A Coalition spooked by Trump ‘lost its guts and lost the election’: Andrew Bolt
Sky News commentator Andrew Bolt is giving his postmortem, saying the Coalition was so scared about looking like Trump that it lost its momentum.
Bolt told Sky News:
It was a shopping bag that he brought to a knife fight. If you don’t like this policy have another, have another … We normally say oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. I think, this is one, the Coalition did actually lose. They were ahead in the polls only four months ago … and then they stopped fighting … They were scared of their own shadow …
They were winning against Labor by talking about culture war issues like the Voice; they released their Nuclear power plans. They were talking about immigration, China, the need to boost defence. Then they stopped – it was like they were so scared of seeming like a Donald Trump and flat footed.
Bolt says the Coalition hid energy spokesperson Ted O’Brien as well as Andrew Hastie, Jacinta Price, Barnaby Joyce – “the best communicators were sidelined.”
This is party that lost its guts and lost the election.
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Bowen calling Bennelong and Robertson
Chris Bowen, a panellist on Channel Nine’s election coverage, has just announced the party now considers it has won the ultra-marginal Bennelong and the bellwether seat of Robertson.
Bowen says:
I’m able to say that the Labor party is prepared to call Bennelong as a Labor win, and Robertson as a Labor win, but we are certainly not calling Hughes.
On Labor’s Jerome Laxale retaining Bennelong despite a redistribution that favoured the Liberals, Bowen says:
I always thought he’d win it, but I thought it’d be a lot closer than that. To be very honest with you, I thought it would come down to the wire.
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Labor ministers withstanding Muslim Vote-backed independents
One of the storylines heading into the election was the push by independents backed by the grassroots Muslim Vote group to oust Labor ministers Tony Burke and Jason Clare.
The early signs indicate both western Sydney MPs will safely retain their seats.
With 2.1% of the vote counted in Watson, Burke, the home affairs minister, has won 57% of the primary vote, compared with just 8.3% from his Muslim Vote-backed challenger Ziad Basyouny.
In Blaxland, Clare is on 50% of the primary vote.
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The vibe has shifted at the Greens Queensland party as early numbers come in
Scores of volunteers gathered in a narrow room to hear state MP Michael Berkman and Senator Penny Allman-Payne speak in front of a massive screen displaying ABC’s election coverage.
An audible groan went across the room as the first counts in Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane came in.
On the preliminary count, the party would lose all three – all their gains from the historic 2022 Greenslide. Allman-Payne said:
The results are really early. As you can see, it’s going to be really tight tonight, so we’re all going to be watching with bated breaths and open hearts.
“This is quite literally a fight for the planet, a fight for our lives, a fight for our children’s lives, our grandchildren’s lives that we’re in here,” Berkman said.
Try and put the butterflies aside. Don’t look at the results for a few minutes. So you just have some nice chats and some hugs. We’ll have a better idea in a couple hours, but we know it could be a couple of days, a couple of weeks; election results suck.
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Trouble in Dutton’s seat of Dickson as numbers swing to Labor: Sky News
At Sky News the panel is discussing Peter Dutton’s fate with trouble in his own seat of Dickson where the numbers are swinging towards Labor so far.
Andrew Clennell, Sky News Australia’s political editor, said he thought with all the talk about Dickson “I was getting spun, so I didn’t really buy it – maybe I’m not getting spun”, but the numbers are showing the leader of the opposition in trouble.
The Labor Senator Murray Watt is being cautious, acknowledging it is still “early days” and Labor were ahead in Dixon at the last election and didn’t win. However, he says:
We always thought we had a chance in Dickson. It is the most marginal seat in Queensland.
Dutton “suffered locally from flood issue and whether he was there, whether he wasn’t there”, Watt says.
He says the independent candidate in Dickson is a factor, and it appears the independent is taking Dutton’s votes.
Barnaby Joyce says there is a problem for Dutton being “rarely in his own seat”, but Clennell says if you’ve done well as leader, that should give its own backing to your vote.
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Paterson appears to back Dutton’s leadership
The Liberal senator James Paterson has appeared to back Peter Dutton’s leadership of the opposition in the event the Coalition loses the election.
Paterson, speaking to Channel Nine’s Karl Stefanovic from the Liberals’ election night event in Brisbane, said this when asked about Dutton’s leadership:
I’m very proud to have served Peter in this term of parliament. He’s a great man. You know him, I know him. He’s a really good person and he always puts the national interest first. So if he wants to continue to serve in public life in any capacity, I’d welcome that.
Paterson also said it was too early to jump to conclusions, and that the Coalition’s internal polling suggests there can be as much as an 8% difference between on-the-day votes and pre-poll votes, with the latter form favouring the Coalition.
Paterson also had this to say of the Labor campaign in Dickson, where Dutton appears to be in trouble:
Labor absolutely went for Peter in this campaign, more than any campaign previously. They poured in an enormous amount of money and he also had Climate 200 funding a candidate to try to tear him down, plus a national advertising campaign from Labor in the tens of millions of dollars. It was very personal and very targeted to him. So, look, I’m not surprised if that has an effect.
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Polls close in WA
Polls across the country have now closed with WA hitting 6pm local time.
We’ll be watching the polls in WA closely, particularly to see how the new seat of Bullwinkel goes, and whether independent MP Kate Chaney can hold her seat of Curtin.
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Labor a ‘bigger and smarter outfit’, says Lambie
Jacqui Lambie has offered a fairly scathing criticism of the Liberal party, as it faces swings against it in the seat of Tasmania.
Lambie blames the Coalition for not releasing its policies or costings earlier:
I think Labor has been the bigger and smarter outfit and have done a lot better. They look like they want to run. Liberals do not. They have been slipping over the last few weeks and they are not coming out with your policy and your costings still towards the end, that is just ridiculous. What were they expecting?
But she does say that overall the campaign has been “lacklustre”.
On what issues have been central to her state, she says salmon farming and the stadium for Hobart have been key.
Palmer calls election for Labor
Clive Palmer has spoken for the first time on Channel Seven’s election night panel, declining his hosts’ request for him to share his mobile phone number on live TV.
The billionaire chairman of Trumpet of Patriots, which has sent a wave of spam text message to voters across the country, sidestepped the question and pointed to the major parties mass-texting voters as well:
Of course it’s the Liberal and Labor Party that made it legal to do it. … they set the system up.
Palmer is calling the election for the Labor party, comfortably, even getting up to swing Seven’s ‘election needle’ prop firmly away from Peter Dutton towards Anthony Albanese:
Unfortunately Labor’s getting a lot more swings than Liberals. … I think what we’re going to see is an Albanese Government return to the majority. I think there could be a loss of Liberal seats between 10 and 15 seats.
Labor party function in Sydney fast filling up
The function room here at the Labor party is fast filling up. Labor people are very confident at this stage.
We haven’t spotted any Labor MPs in the room yet – that usually comes a little later, once the result is a bit clearer – but there are early signs Labor is expecting a good result tonight.
On the stage, a technical coordinator comes up to give a brief rundown of some logistics for the night. Beginning her remarks and trying to get the crowd’s attention, she jokes that people are already feeling happy, “I’ve got a funny feeling we’re going to be happier soon tonight”.
Results from early in the count flash up on screen in Bennelong, where it was expected to be even close – but Labor’s Jerome Laxale is up by about a 60-40 margin. A huge cheer rings out.
Someone calls to turn up the volume on the ABC results telecast. The TV in the other corner, showing Sky News, remains resolutely on mute.
A big contingent of Albanese staffers have just entered the party.
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All not lost in Tasmanian seat of Franklin, Chalmers says
Jim Chalmers says all is not lost in the Tasmanian seat of Franklin, held by Labor frontbencher Julie Collins.
She’s facing a tough challenge from independent candidate Peter George in a seat where salmon fishing has been a key issue.
Chalmers says the more rural areas of Collins’ seat will support her:
He [George] is a much tougher proposition in the rural booth than he is closer to town so some people I trust on these issues say that. Obviously, we are watching it closely but we feel better about it than I indicated half-an-hour ago or so.
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State MP Nina Taylor ‘hopeful’ Josh Burns can retain Macnamara
More people are filing into Labor MP Josh Burns’ Macnamara party, including state MP for the overlapping seat of Albert Park, Nina Taylor. She says it’s “early days” but is feeling optimistic:
There’s a lot of counting to go but so far it looks promising, and I’m very hopeful.
She says Burns has worked “extremely hard” and was “very earnest”.
At the end of the day, it’s about values and being authentic and that’s the best thing any party and any MP can do.
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Coalition struggling in own Queensland and Tasmania seats
With about 10% counted, the Coalition is struggling on early projections in many of its own seats, particularly in Queensland (Bonner, Dickson and Leichhardt, which appear to be falling and to a lesser degree Forde) and in northern Tasmania, where the early pattern in Bass and Braddon has continued such that the booth votes would have to be very unrepresentative to save these seats now.
Banks and Hughes (NSW) and Sturt (SA) are also off to bad starts for them and they are not even yet projecting to recover Aston. Again, we need to see how the booth swing stands up when pre-polls and postals start to arrive, but the size of the projected leads
in some of these is becoming a serious problem.
The Greens at this early stage may have problems in Brisbane (where they are at risk of falling to third) and Griffith (where the LNP is at risk of falling to third), and Ryan is also not clear for them at this stage.
Labor’s position is improving in Franklin, where they are building a substantial primary lead (and are advantaged by the Liberal how-to-vote card), but in Bendigo they are at risk to the Nationals. It is already hard to see how the Coalition have ambitions for the rest of the evening beyond damage control.
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No Coalition majority government – Sky News
Tom Connell, the Sky News chief election analyst, predicts the “Coalition will not form majority government”.
Connell said while there could still be gains for the Coalition in Victoria, they are “not seeing the momentum” needed.
Barnaby Joyce says on the network that the “Australian people will always give [leaders] a second go.”
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A jovial Tony Burke says election not ‘referendum’ on the last three years of Labor
Labor frontbencher Tony Burke’s looking jovial, crossing to the ABC from Punchbowl in his seat of Sydney.
He’s got some loud supporters standing behind him.
Burke says there’s been a shift this year for the government, and the election hasn’t been a “referendum” on the last three years of Labor.
I think very much the shift has been, as the course of the year has gone on, less a referendum on the government and more a choice between who you would be better under. That is been part of the shift back to the government and hopefully [that] continues through the night.
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Guardian Australia predicts Labor wins in more safe seats, Katter to retain Kennedy
We’re also predicting a Labor win in some safe seats around the country, with the ALP to retain Lilley, Sydney, Cunningham, Kingsford Smith and Barton.
Bob Katter is also projected to retain Kennedy.
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Bandt sets sights on winning Labor-held Wills and Macnamara
Greens leader Adam Bandt has an energetic crowd behind him in Melbourne, and it’s almost hard to hear him over the top as he talks to the ABC.
The Greens are gunning to win the Labour-held seats of Wills and Macnamara in inner Melbourne.
Bandt says there’s been a “really good” feeling at the booths he’s visited.
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Antony Green: ‘Nothing looks good for the Coalition’
ABC election analyst Antony Green says it’s “hard to see” the Coalition winning.
It is hard to see them winning, I must say that, whether this is going to translate into Labor having a win or big win, it is going to take a lot more to go.
Green has said from the votes coming in so far, that there’s been a swing towards Labor, rather than the Coalition.
A little earlier in the evening, Green said “nothing looks good for the Coalition at this stage”.
Peter Dutton has been saying he believes in “miracles”, and was hopeful of “quiet Australians” coming out to vote for him. It’s looking like that won’t happen tonight.
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Clare says tonight is his ‘biggest and hardest’ fight in Blaxland
Jason Clare, Labor’s education minister, has told Sky News in his seat of Blaxland the war in Gaza is a major issue that “we’ll see impact in results tonight” as the network is showing a swing away from Labor in the order of almost 10%, as many voters swing towards independent Ahmed Ouf.
Ouf told Guardian Australia when he announced his campaign the Middle East conflict was a personal “turning point” but is just one part of his “multi-issue” campaign, which also includes the cost of living, housing affordability, education and healthcare.
Clare has told Sky News although the seat is Paul Keating heartland, it is too early to call results tonight, as he is facing the “biggest and hardest fight i’ve ever had for this seat”.
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Queensland Greens ‘feeling positive’ over Ryan and Griffith, say Brisbane on knife-edge
The mood is mixed as scores of Queensland Greens MPs and volunteers have gathered at a tiny venue in Woolloongabba.
The venue – apparently a converted house – is all stairs and small rooms, with a back yard section complete with a DJ and bar.
The atmosphere is tense, but the party faithful are cheering wildly at each mention of the party on the TV, and as each MP arrives.
Last election was the Greens’ best ever – particularly in Queensland – where the party won its second, third and fourth seats in an unexpected “Greenslide”.
Nobody has been willing to predict a repeat of 2022.
Many Greens are cautiously optimistic about Ryan and Griffith, but say Brisbane is on a knife-edge. Some refuse to make a prediction at all.
Asked what her yardstick for victory would be, veteran Senate leader Larissa Waters said she’d be happy holding all three seats. Winning a fourth, Moreton, would be “off the charts”, she said.
We’ve got more volunteers than ever before. Support for us on prepoll has been really strong – in the 20 years that I’ve been doing this – it feels really strong.
I’m an eternal optimist, so I guess I shouldn’t really judge until we see the actual results tonight. But it’s feeling positive.
Max Chandler-Mather said the party was bigger even than it was in 2022.
At the end of the day, coming up against the two party system is tough, right? Like we had the far-right group advance. We had prosperity Australia. We had the Liberals. We had Labor all ganging up trying to kick us out of these three seats in Brisbane. This has been the biggest election campaign for the Queensland Greens in our party’s history, and also the biggest challenge, and I am incredibly proud of the way the party, the movement, has responded.
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‘We believe in miracles. But it’s tough’ says Dutton
Peter Dutton has cautioned against jumping to conclusions as early results trickle in, noting that pre-poll votes traditionally favour the Coalition.
In an interview with Channel 9 on the sidelines of the Coalition’s election night event in Brisbane, the opposition leader said “everyone’s still running on fumes” after a long campaign.
Dutton said:
I don’t think we’ll see any meaningful numbers for another hour or so. You need those pre-poll numbers, which have been in huge numbers and traditionally that favours us quite significantly. So I think the early numbers you see will be distorting, if they’re just from today. So let’s see how it goes over the next hour.
He added:
You really want to see the pre-polling numbers, given that, you know, 30, 40, 50%, depending on the seats, of people voted before today, and traditionally, if they’re older Australians, they’re more our way and they voted earlier and we want to see all of those numbers.
He ends with some optimism:
We believe in miracles. But it’s tough.
Worrying signs for Coalition in must-win Gilmore
It’s still extremely early days in the count but there are some worrying signs for the Coalition in crucial seats.
The seat of Gilmore on the NSW south coast was considered a must-win for the opposition, with former state minister Andrew Constance hoping to reverse a narrow defeat in the 2022 poll.
But with 10% of the vote counted, Labor MP Fiona Phillips is ahead 57-43 in two-party preferred.
That is a swing of almost 7%.
There is also an early swing to Labor in the Coalition-held seat of Leichhardt, where former basketballer Matt Smith is running against Jeremy Neal.
If these results hold up – and we stress, it’s still very early – it might be a very long night for Peter Dutton.
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Atmosphere nervous at Josh Burns’ election party
We’ve arrived at the Labor election night event for Macnamara MP Josh Burns, and so far it is pretty subdued, with party faithful chatting quietly over beers, Cheezels and soft rock.
As one of the tightest three-cornered contests in the country, it could be a while before we get a result here.
Macnamara, which stretches across Melbourne’s inner bayside suburbs, is a between Labor’s Burns, Liberal candidate Benson Saulo and the Greens’ Sonya Semmens. At the last election, all three parties secured pretty comparable first-preference votes but Labor ultimately won the seat off the back of the Greens preferences.
This time, the race is even more unpredictable due to the war in the Middle East. About 10% of Macnamara’s population is Jewish, making it the second-largest Jewish electorate in the country, behind Wentworth in Sydney and followed by its neighbouring seat, Goldstein, both held by independents.
Many in Macnamara have criticised Labor’s response to antisemitism and a perceived failure to stand firmly with Israel amid the war in Gaza, sparked by the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023.
Burns, one of a few Jewish MPs in federal parliament, has faced a relentless campaign from Advance Australia and J-United during the campaign, which had urged him to preference the Greens last.
Instead, Burns ran on an open ticket, meaning his how-to-vote cards didn’t direct voters on where to send their preferences.
The conundrum for Jewish voters disillusioned with Burns is that if enough people switch their primary vote to Saulo so that Labor comes third, it could deliver the seat to the Greens.
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Dutton’s early troubles in own seat unleash huge cheer at Labor HQ
Labor people are getting more excited here at the official party in the inner west of Sydney.
As Antony Green flashes up the early results in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, with Labor’s Ali France enjoying a healthy lead early on, a massive cheer rings out.
It’s early in the night, a long way to go, only about 5% of the vote counted … but it’s obvious which seat this party will be most focused on tonight.
Over on the ABC, Jim Chalmers says his “phone is blowing up” over the votes so far in Dickson, but adds:
We think the early voting which will come in in huge chunks later in the night will be better for him than on the day but there is a lot of interest, as you can imagine on that big early number.
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Hanson says Coalition preferrencing One Nation to win seats
Murray Watt is asking One Nation leader Pauline Hanson why the Coalition is preferencing her party number two in so many seats, an about-face from John Howard’s position putting One Nation last.
Hanson tells Watt her party’s standing has changed:
Your stance we are a racist party is a load of rubbish.
Hanson said the Coalition knows that preferencing her party contributes to getting them seats in parliament.
Hanson says she has “no time for Labor”.
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Climate 200 funding to blame for Liberals’ struggle in Sydney’s Bradfield – James McGrath
James McGrath says Climate 200 money is the reason the Liberals are struggling to gain traction against the community independents, especially as Nicolette Boele leads the initial count in the seat of Bradfield in Sydney.
McGrath says:
In Bradfield we have had someone … funded by Climate 200 as the shadow MP for the last three years.
McGrath is asked if he’s “blaming” the organisation.
He says “no”.
I’m pointing out what is happening electorally on a number of seats across the country … They have six fully funded offices that are staffed.
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Incumbents projected to hold on to safe seats: Clark, Gippsland, Mallee and Dawson
In addition to Maranoa, we’re projecting a few more very safe seats for the incumbents in those electorates. Clark – independent Andrew Wilkie to retain, Gippsland and Mallee both Nationals to retain, and Dawson LNP to retain.
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Murray Watt says early Brisbane results ‘very encouraging’
Labor Senator Murray Watt has told Sky News the early figures in the seat of Brisbane are “encouraging” as Labor candidate Madonna Jarrett looks to take it back from Greens MP Stephen Bates.
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Electric mood at Labor’s main election night party in Albanese’s electorate
The mood is already buzzing at Labor’s main election night party in Anthony Albanese’s electorate of Grayndler. We’re in a large function room of a big club, and it’s already starting to fill up.
We haven’t spotted any MPs or ministers yet, but party faithful in Labor red T-shirts are cracking into a few drinks – there’s a lot of “Albo Ale”, the Albanese-branded beer from local brewery Willie the Boatman, going around.
A big cheer just went up as the early results from Gilmore flashed up on the ABC from a big screen TV in one corner, showing Fiona Phillips with an early lead.
Another cheer goes up as Antony Green says the independent is leading in the Liberal seat of Bradfield.
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Hume denies discussing post-election Liberal leadership with colleagues
Jane Hume has denied reports she has been ringing parliamentary colleagues to discuss the Liberal leadership after the election, saying she was just offering “pastoral care”.
Hume was on Channel Seven’s election panel, where she was asked about reports in Nine papers that she had been asking other Liberal politicians for face-to-face meetings on Sunday, and replied:
This is such a beat-up. That’s pastoral care: you ring colleagues … candidates I have campaigned with, and say ‘Hey, how are you doing?’ That’s what you do.
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Coalition’s primary vote down, according to early counts
Very early days yet with only about 2% of the vote counted but enough is building up to start noticing some interesting things overall.
What is up so far is mostly primary votes and it is also possible that swings in on-the-day booths will be unrepresentative – this has been increasingly an issue in election watching as more and more voters vote by pre-poll.
In the seats with numbers so far the Coalition primary is overall down.
This is particularly striking in Bass and Braddon, where there are large swings against the Liberals in small mostly rural booths, and in the few booths where there is a two-party count they seem to be flowing through.
No first-term government has ever won a seat on a margin as large as Braddon from the opposition. There are also large swings in some small booths in Bonner, another Labor target seat, and a generally good start for Labor in Queensland LNP marginals – Leichhardt, Forde and Petrie.
Labor doesn’t seem to be in early trouble against the Coalition in any of its own seats but there are a few where non-Coalition rivals are making things interesting, including Bean (Jessie Price) and Franklin (where Peter George is ahead though the booths counted so far are likely to be favourable for him).
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Nationals leader Littleproud holds Queensland seat – ABC
The ABC has called the Queensland seat of Maranoa for the LNP.
Absolutely no surprises there – Maranoa is the safest seat in the country, held by Nationals leader David Littleproud.
He has it on a margin of 22.12%.
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Early results ‘putting a smile’ on Plibersek’s face
Tanya Plibersek has said the results in the first hour are “putting a smile on my face”. Labor’s environment minister was talking to Channel Seven’s election night panel, joined by former colleague Bill Shorten, where she said:
We take nothing for granted. … I’m looking at very early results from tiny, tiny booths in Queensland and the ACT, and I’m seeing some good numbers. They’re very small booths and they’re very early numbers but they’re putting a smile on my face.
Her former colleague, Bill Shorten, backed her up:
I’m quietly confident … The Libs didn’t have a black hole in their campaign. They had about 3m quarries.
That claim drew the ire of the shadow finance spokesperson, Jane Hume, also appearing on Seven’s panel:
That’s not true. The first Labor lie of the night.
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There was a huge cheer from the crowd at the Greens party in Melbourne a few moments ago. Briefly, people thought a seat had been called on the ABC coverage. Instead, it appears someone just arrived with a round of drinks.
Mood picking up here.
Early Labor swings in Tasmina, ABC’s Antony Green says
The ABC’s longtime election analyst Antony Green says he’s seeing an early swing towards Labor in Tasmania.
One of the seats to watch is Braddon, currently held by the Liberals. Gavin Pearce has retired at this election, and Labor senator Anne Urquhart made the switch from the upper to the lower house to contest the seat. While Pearce had an 8% margin in 2022, early results show Urquhart could bridge a lot of that gap.
But Green says it’s not just there but all over the state where we’re seeing a swing towards Labor.
All of the electorates are showing a significant swing so it’s not just one or two polling places, there is something else going on there …
Jim Chalmers says Peter Dutton’s popularity in Tasmania has been low, and is something Labor has tried to exploit:
If you take Bass, which has a well-known local member Bridget Archer, the maverick Liberal member of parliament, our campaign in Bass was to say you can like Bridget Archer but if you vote for her, you get Peter Dutton and it has been a very effective campaign there.
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Marles ‘very nervous’ but happy with Labor’s campaign
The deputy prime minister, Richard Marles, says he is feeling “very nervous” despite approaching the night with a sense of optimism. He tells Channel Ten:
We have gone about this campaign seeking to achieve majority government, and we feel really happy with the way in which we executed the campaign. The way our messages resonated across the electorate, the state, the country, has gone really well.
Marles, who is also the defence minister, is asked about the Coalition’s late defence spending announcement. He says the lack of detail was evidence “they had firstly not done the work”.
What kind of capabilities do you want to have? What defence force do you need to build? None of that was on the table, when the Coalition announced their policy. They literally announced $21bn worth of expenditure and couldn’t identify a single thing that they were going to spend that on. That doesn’t pass any sense of the credibility test.
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Littleproud admits Coalition made errors but Nats’ campaign was ‘flawless’
Over on Sky News, the Nationals leader, David Littleproud, has acknowledged the Coalition’s campaign made errors, but that Peter Dutton owned up to them and handled them well.
However, Littleproud appeared to say that all the mistakes came from the Liberal side of the Coalition.
I’m proud of the Nationals campaign, I think it’s been flawless.
On the Coalition campaign as a whole, he said:
Where there’s been mistakes, we’ve had the courage to own up to them.
Littleproud also said he is confident the Nationals will retain all their seats and are confident they will pick up Calare, and hopeful for Bendigo and Lingiari.
He said people in regional Australia have suffered under the Albanese government.
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Coalition’s election night function at Brisbane HQ almost empty
The Coalition’s election night function in Brisbane is in the same room where David Crisafulli delivered his victory speech in the Queensland election less than seven months ago.
Currently, about 50 journalists – and quite literally no one else – are in the function room at the W Hotel.
With not much of interest happening, some of the media veterans in the room are reminiscing about the open bar on offer last October.
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Steggall: ‘Traditionally the major parties are less politically courageous’
Independent MP Zali Steggall says parliament won’t look “too differently” for her if we end up with a minority government.
But even if there is a majority government, Steggall tells the ABC she’ll still have influence.
I don’t think it will look too differently than what it has already for my first two terms in the parliament. I have worked with the Coalition government and I have worked with a Labor government. I have passed over 20 amendments to legislation …
What we have been able to do is build the social licence for the areas of policy where change is needed … Traditionally the major parties are less politically courageous, they feel more hamstrung, but I think we on the crossbench, myself and others, create the space and give a voice to communities around change.
Steggall is going for her third term as an independent in Warringah on the Sydney’s northern beaches.
She’s asked whether she has a feel for which party might form government, but she won’t say.
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What impact will One Nation have?
Liberal senator James McGrath downplays the impact One Nation preferences for the Liberal party will have in some electorates, saying some of their voters will put Labor ahead.
One Nation gets that support from traditional conservative right and the working-class right, so that is when you look at their preferences, sometimes they will go back to the Labor party because that is where they have come from.
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, believes the One Nation vote will be up, but says the preference flow to the Coalition will be “especially strong”.
But he adds that the Donald Trump and US factor hasn’t worked for Peter Dutton.
They [the Coalition] are being cannibalised a little bit to their right – and this is where the American influence comes in, I think, is the further and further, the more enthusiastically Peter Dutton has courted those rightwing voters, the less mainstream the party becomes and that has been an opportunity for us.
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Paterson says Coalition ‘up against history’
The Coalition spokesperson James Paterson joins the ABC and says the Coalition is “up against history”, with no government having lost after one term in more than 100 years.
He seems to want to manage expectations, rather than other Coalition members who have said the opposition could still be in a position to win tonight.
He points to Tony Abbott’s result in 2010, when Labor won a minority government under Julia Gillard.
As a point of history was when Tony Abbott [won] seven seats in the 2010 election and that was against a government that had rolled its own prime minister and had proposed a carbon tax. So, there have been some high expectations of the Coalition over the last few months. I think we should be looking at history and measure ourselves against that.
He adds that Donald Trump has had an impact on the campaign and the fortunes of his party.
One fact I think we can all acknowledge and recognise is the Donald Trump factor. It was devastating in Canada for the Conservatives, where the Canadian Conservative leader lost 20 points over the course of a few months. I think that has been a factor here.
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‘A lot of voters have made up their mind,’ says Labor volunteer
As the sun set, the fairy lights switched on outside Ashfield town hall and volunteers were packing up after a long day campaigning.
The inner-Sydney booth at the edge of Anthony Albanese’s seat of Grayndler and the Labor marginal seat Reid had been full all day, but they were in more of a hurry than they had been in years past, said volunteer Mark Drury:
A lot of voters have made up their mind as they came through and less interested in having a chat. In previous years more people would have a chat and they’d ask about policies or ideas. Now [they] mainly just grab stuff.
Drury, a Labor campaigner and former local councillor, has been handing out how-to-votes not only all today but at every election for the last couple of decades. His observations were seconded by Greens volunteer Alex:
I think a lot of people have gone in knowing what they want.
Even if the voters were rushing through and hardly stopping to chat, Drury said the ambience has been improved by music blasting from the Vietnamese cafe facing the town hall square and a new station for democracy sausages and halloumis:
It adds a nice kind of feel to a polling booth … People have all gotten along pretty well.
But they’re all glad to see the end of election day, off to party events or home to watch the results roll in, keen for a rest – especially one for the Legalise Cannabis party:
I’m looking forward to sitting down, that’s for sure.
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David Littleproud predicts a hung parliament
Over on Channel Ten’s panel, senator Jackie Lambie has predicted Labor will win without having to do any deals, and that we’ll see that result early “by half past seven” – but the Nationals party leader, David Littleproud, says the Coalition shouldn’t be discounted.
Littleproud is predicting a hung parliament “sadly, but don’t know who’ll be the one who forms that government”.
Littleproud says there is “mood for change” and that many voters are coming to the election “late” after two long weekends.
This is an election where we’ve had Easter – people were off camping, they’ve only just put the tent away, they’ve only just got the kids back to school. I think you’re going to see that many are just running the ruler over both sides today. I wouldn’t discount the fact that we get there. I think this is a very local election, and I think you’re going to see a few surprises, even from the Nats.
Labor senator Jenny McAllister agrees with Littleproud: “I think this will be an election determined in very local ways.”
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Labor hopes Victorian state issues don’t affect its vote
Victoria will have a key say this election, and there are a fair few seats that could change hands tonight (or later this week as counting continues).
Earlier tonight, the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said his party were hopeful of limiting “losses” in the state. Polling in the state has not been favourable to the premier, Jacinta Allan, since she over from Dan Andrews, and Allan has noticeably spent less time on the federal election trail with Anthony Albanese than other state premiers.
The deputy PM, Richard Marles, a Victorian, says he believes voters in his state will vote with a focus on federal and not state issues.
But he’s not taking anything for granted.
It is probably more a reflection on my personality than anything else but once we get to 6pm I sort of hit a wall of pessimism …
There have been state issues and we saw the Werribee byelection earlier in the year and obviously there was a significant swing against state Labor in fact, but as we have gone through the campaign, people have understandably focused in on what this election is about. This was a choice between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton.
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Seven calls 28 seats, with ‘0% votes counted’
Channel Seven has already called the results for 28 seats. It made the call less than 10 minutes after polls closed on the east coast, counting 18 electorates for Labor, eight for the Coalition, one for independents and one for “others”. As it declares on its website, that’s with “0% votes counted”.
So which seats has Seven called with such confidence? We’ll keep you posted. Seven was too busy playing bulletins covering all the campaign’s greatest hits and capturing the party leaders’ frantic final days of campaigning.
It’s not the first time the station has jumped a little early tonight. Earlier in their coverage, hosts got viewers excited about their celebrity panellist:
Clive Palmer is going to be part of our coverage later. Clive, can you hear us?
The channel crossed to Palmer, seemingly holding a TimTam packet, surrounded by Channel Seven balloons, but heard nothing in response from the Trumpet of Patriots mega donor, to the Seven host’s chagrin:
We don’t have a microphone on him just yet. I’ve heard enough from him, had four text messages already. He is trying to spin his way to influence, isn’t he?
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We’ve got some photos coming in of the incredible AEC personnel in Sydney and Brisbane who are counting all of our votes tonight.
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‘We were in all sorts of trouble last year’: Jim Chalmers
The treasurer, Jim Chalmers, gets quite candid, admitting on the ABC that his party was “in all sorts of trouble” last year.
He says there are “three things” that turned around Labor’s fortunes from January:
I don’t think I’ve seen a prime minister campaign as well as prime minister Albanese has … Secondly, I think the way that we got back in the game on the cost of living, I think by most measures, public and private polling, we were at parity on the cost of living or better in some polls.
The third one I think is really in the way that the sense of the influence of American politics, I think that was important as well.
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Bandt to welcome party supporters at Greens HQ
The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, will soon welcome party supporters and volunteers at a bar in Melbourne’s CBD. There’s a mixture of nerves and excitement in the room so far, as people start trickling in.
Bandt is taking a moment to dine with his family but is expected to address the crowd of supporters early in the evening, before heading to the tally room to study the results in detail. If all goes to plan, he’s hoping to address the crowd again at about 9.30pm.
The Greens are hoping to pick up two seats from Labor in Melbourne’s inner suburbs – Wills and Macnamara. That’s expected to be a tight contest. In Queensland, the Greens are fighting to hold on to three seats: Ryan, Brisbane and Griffith.
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Key event
Goat tracks
The pollies are out in full force on the TV panels tonight.
On the ABC, Queensland Liberal senator James McGrath says there’s a “goat track” for the Coalition to win but he believes we won’t know who the next PM will be tonight.
I think when everybody goes to bed too many seats will be too close to call. There is a high soft vote out there still … For us I think the key will be, we’re playing defence in a lot of places, but we can limit our losses in Victoria.
There is a very narrow pathway, it is a goat track. There are lots of billy goats on it and lots of rock slides, but we’re not going to know tonight.
McGrath says he’ll be watching his state really closely.
I was setting up last night in the electorate of Brisbane; let’s see what happens in those seats and the Greens vote. In Queensland I’m also interested in Leichhardt, which will be a knife fight. A number of these will be notified on a knife’s edge.
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Was it a stumble? Was it a fall?
Over on Channel Nine’s election coverage, panellists are killing time before polls close and results start trickling in – but one key point of disagreement has already come to the fore.
After a highlights reel of the campaign played, panellists discussed Anthony Albanese’s infamous fall off a stage in the NSW Hunter region in the early stages of the campaign. The prime minister has resisted describing it as a “fall” – something we have covered at length in this explainer.
While election night is often the time when politicians come forward with frank admissions about campaign missteps, it appears we are not at that point of the night yet.
Moments ago, the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, again refused to accept Albanese fell off the stage.
Asked why Albo didn’t just concede he fell as a way to humanise him to voters, Gallagher said: “It was definitely a stumble.”
In other words, not a fall. We’ll keep you updated if her position changes throughout the night.
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Polls close in eastern states
It’s 6pm eastern time, and that means the first polls have closed.
As Kevin Bonham mentioned below, we’ll start getting counts for those eastern states at about 7pm.
There’s another half hour before the polls close in South Australia and the NT, and another two hours before the polls close in WA, so those counts will come even later.
You can keep track of all the seats on our live tracker page, and of course, the blog here.
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Electoral, polling and political analyst Kevin Bonham joins election night team
Good evening Guardian readers, I’m very pleased to be providing live comments here tonight.
Votes should start appearing from the eastern states about 7pm, perhaps with some very small booths earlier.
The on-the-day booth counts should be more substantial, about 8-8.30pm and pre-poll booths should be appearing in the mix by about 9.30pm.
Votes cast in pre-poll within a voter’s own division can be counted tonight.
The AEC is also intending to count about 2,000 postal votes per seat tonight, though for some seats that will just be a small sample, and these early postal counts tend to be better for the Coalition than the ones that will be added several days into the count.
In several pre-poll booths, the AEC started the process at 4pm by placing the ballot papers in piles by candidate ready for counting from 6pm.
The Senate counting is always much slower and the fairly small portion that’s counted tonight may not be representative, but should give some broad ideas of which minor parties are in the mix for seats.
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Labor faces challenges from all directions in Victoria
I’ll be on the ground tonight in Victoria – a state long considered Labor heartland, nicknamed the “Massachusetts of Australia” by former prime minister John Howard in 2018.
The label still stands: Labor currently holds 24 of the state’s 38 seats, while the Coalition has just 10. The Greens leader, Adam Bandt, holds Melbourne, while independents Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan and Helen Haines hold Goldstein, Kooyong and Indi respectively.
The Coalition knows it needs to make gains in Victoria, if not to win this election, then to lay groundwork for the next. It has campaigned hard in the state, linking Anthony Albanese to the long-serving and increasingly unpopular state Labor government, led by the premier, Jacinta Allan. Signs featuring the two side by side were on display at most polling booths across the state today.
The Liberals are confident about picking up marginal seats like Aston, Chisholm and McEwen, and are eyeing safer outer suburban Labor seats like Hawke and Gorton. Labor insiders concede Aston is likely gone and are watching Chisholm and McEwen closely, but remain confident about retaining the latter two.
Senior Labor figures in Victoria say the party is starting from a high-water mark in the state – a 54.8% two-party-preferred result in 2022. They expect a 1.5 to 2.5% swing, bringing Victoria more in line with NSW.
But Labor’s challenges aren’t just coming from the Coalition. The Greens have run strong campaigns in inner-city seats like Macnamara and Wills, which could go down to the wire.
The Liberals are also hoping to gain ground from the teals: Amelia Hamer is contesting Kooyong, while Tim Wilson is attempting a comeback in Goldstein.
I’ll be in Macnamara soon to bring you updates from the ground as results come in.
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The seats to watch
There are many seats up for grabs tonight, and here are a few to keep an eye on throughout it.
Labor hopes to hold all of its seats, but it has a few in its sights to take from the Coalition and Greens.
Meanwhile, the Coalition hopes to make some ground across NSW and Victoria.
Here are some of the seats to watch:
NSW: Bennelong, Gilmore, Paterson, Dobell, Robertson, Bradfield
Victoria: Aston, Chisholm, Goldstein, McEwan, Macnamara, Wills, Wannon
Queensland: Brisbane, Leichhardt, Dickson
SA: Sturt
WA: Tangney, Curtin
Tasmania: Franklin, Lyons
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Good evening,
Krishani Dhanji with you here – thanks to Caitlin Cassidy and our fabulous team for bringing you all the day’s coverage.
I’ll spare you my “wow, we’re finally here” sentiment and just get straight into it.
There’s no doubt, it’s going to be a big night.
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With that, I will place you into the extremely capable hands of Krishani Dhanji. She’ll be with you for the rest of the (long) evening, as the votes roll in. Have a happy election night, all.
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‘This is not unusual’: Greens accuse Labor of ‘scare campaign’ over how-to-vote cards in marginal Melbourne seats
The Greens have accused Labor of mounting an election day “scare campaign” about “open tickets” in the Melbourne electorates of Menzies and Deakin.
As my colleague Josh Butler told you a few moments ago, Labor is furious that some pamphlets being handed out by volunteers in these seats are not directing people to preference Labor higher than the Liberals. Labor claims this is “paving the way” for Liberal members to be re-elected.
How-to-vote cards often (but don’t always) recommend how people should vote. While the Greens would recommend voters put a number 1 next to their candidate, usually they would recommend voters also preference Labor higher than the Coalition.
A Greens spokesperson said the Greens were preferencing Labor ahead of the Liberals in every seat across the country. They said this was made clear on official how-to-vote cards that were online and being shared in the two electorates.
The spokesperson did acknowledge, however, that some local campaigners were issuing a separate “Vote 1 Greens” leaflet in some locations:
On a few booths in Deakin and Menzies, the local group are also handing out a Vote 1 Greens leaflet, just like the independent and teal candidates do and like Labor is doing in Macnamara. This is not unusual; it happens every election, and Labor is trying to create a scare campaign.
The Greens continue to recommend people vote 1 Greens and preference Labor ahead of Liberals to keep Dutton out.
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Photos: ‘Corflute wars’ and protesters cause scene at Kooyong in Melbourne’s east
We have more images rolling in from voting day, including eclectic scenes in the electorate of Kooyong in Melbourne’s east, which has been in the middle of the so-called “corflute wars”.
Here, a corflute depicts Peter Dutton as Donald Trump in the crossover I hoped never to see.
Protesters have also been out and about, including this individual who described our compulsory voting system as “coercion”. (Australia has consistently ranked among the top 20 nations in the world democratic index.)
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GIO Stadium to broadcast election during Brumbies and Waratahs match
Election night can be difficult for politics nerds who are also sports lovers. (I will be dual-screening the Collingwood game with the news this evening.)
Fortunately, Brumbies fans heading to GIO Stadium on Saturday night as the ACT face the NSW Waratahs won’t have to worry – coverage of the federal election will be showing before and during the event.
In a statement, the Brumbies described it as “Canberra’s biggest election watch party”, with vote counts to beam live from 7pm next to the south stand.
There will also be a couple of live crosses to election coverage on the big screen at half-time.
The Brumbies’ general manager, Gavin Hunt, said given the big match fell on election night, the team was “keen to ensure members and fans are able to keep track of the election results without missing the game, should they wish to”.
The MCG and SCG, take notes, guys.
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Albanese says ‘it’s now up to the people’ as Dutton has faith ‘quiet Australians’ will support Coalition
Earlier, we brought you images of Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton casting their ballots this afternoon as the hours dwindle until polls close.
The PM started his day at the Melbourne Cricket Ground before heading to Sydney and reuniting with his beloved hound, Toto.
He was surrounded by a media pack and locals at Marrickville west public school in his electorate of Grayndler before reaching the solitude of the voting booth. He took his place next to his son, Nathan, and spent less than a minute filling the paper.
Asked whether he would win, Albanese replied: “Marrickville west, this is my hood”.
It’s now up to the people. We will wait and see what the outcome is. We should be proud we live in a vibrant democracy and everyone gets one vote, one value.
Meanwhile, the opposition leader told reporters he had faith “quiet Australians” would come out today to support the Coalition, and was “looking forward” to the outcome.
At the end of a gruelling campaign, in which he visited 52 electorates, Dutton was supported by wife Kirilly and children Tom, Harry and Bec as he voted at Albany Creek state school in Brisbane’s north.
– with AAP
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Labor left fuming after Greens run ‘open ticket’ in two ultra-marginal Victorian seats
Labor is furious that the Greens are running an “open ticket” on their how-to-vote cards in the ultra-marginal Victorian seats, Menzies and Deakin, claiming the decision was “paving the way” for Liberal members to be re-elected.
How-to-vote cards often (but don’t always) recommend how people should vote. While the Greens would recommend voters put a number 1 next to their candidate, usually they would recommend voters also preference Labor higher than the Coalition.
Of course, voters can vote however they want, and don’t have to follow the cards, but some people do follow the recommendations. In the very tight Deakin and Menzies (held by Liberal MPs Michael Sukkar and Keith Wolahan respectively), the Greens recommended supporters back Labor above the Liberals on their online how to vote cards – but their physical leaflets, handed out at polling stations on Saturday, tell voters to vote “in the order of your choice”, making no recommendations.
Labor sources claim this could help Sukkar and Wolahan hang on to their seats. Labor had earlier in the campaign raised the prospect of winning one or both of Menzies or Deakin, but sources lowered those expectations as the campaign went on.
A Labor campaign spokesperson said:
If the Greens were serious about keeping Peter Dutton out, about taking action on housing and about stopping ultra-conservative forces in our parliament, they would not be paving the way for Michael Sukkar to be re-elected in Deakin.
They vote with Sukkar in parliament to delay thousands of social and affordable homes being built, then they stick with him on election day. This move just shows the Greens political party for who they really are, and they should be embarrassed.
In a tweet, the Victorian Labor account claimed the Greens were “helping Peter Dutton become prime minister in Victoria’s two most marginal seats by running open tickets in both”.
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Thank you for joining me on today’s rather lively federal election day blog. Handing over now to the great Caitlin Cassidy, who will keep you posted with updates into the evening.
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Long queues of up to 80 minutes at some polling stations in Melbourne and Sydney
Voters have reported long queues at some polling stations in Melbourne and Sydney today, with the longest queue recorded by the AEC taking about 80 minutes.
Guardian Australia’s Alan Vaarwerk was in line for over an hour in Collingwood, Melbourne, this morning. “It was even longer after I left,” he said.
AEC spokesperson Evan Ekin-Smyth said it tracked queues with markers throughout election day.
The longest that I saw in the reported data that we have was about 80 minutes.
That is obviously much longer than you would like it to be.
Melbourne’s Docklands had one venue with a significant queue. Ekin-Smyth said the queue was down to 20 minutes after additional AEC staff were deployed.
“I’ve spoken to one of the staff members there who reported that while there was a queue, there did not seem to be a level of angst among the voters present,” he said.
Across 7,000 polling stations, he said, most were seeing little wait time, if any at all.
“It is hard to say exactly why those venues have seen bigger queues, because we did forecasts … But you can never fully accurately predict voter behaviour,” Ekin-Smyth said.
He explained CBD locations could be tricky: “On polling day, most of the venues around the nation are schools or community halls or church halls. They’re in short supply in a CBD.”
Even after half the voting population lodged early votes, the AEC “still needed 8-9 million people to come through the doors today,” he said. “That’s still massive.”
We work really hard on minimising queues where we can – we’ve been assisted in this endeavour over many years by Deakin university. Looking at table loadings, venue setups, forecast management and mini-queues.
There is no election in the world without queues. It’s part of any in-person, large scale process.
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New 'swing-o-metre' feature added to our results page tonight
We’re adding a new feature to our results page tonight that will show the primary vote swing away from (or to) major parties. Our swing-o-metre will show this nationally and for each electorate.
In the 1980s, Labor and the Coalition shared more than 90% of the primary vote between them, and independent politicians were rare.
But at the 2022 federal election, the combined major party vote was at a record low of 68% and the size of the cross-bench in the lower house reached a record high, with 16 MPs elected either as independents or from a minor party.
Here’s a preview of how the new features look with 2022 data for testing:
And you can read more about the declining major party vote and what it means, and see how your electorate has changed, in our interactive feature.
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They do politics differently in America
As far as I’m aware, no candidate in today’s Australian federal election has also nominated themselves to be pope (any baptised Catholic male is canonically eligible to be elected to the papacy. However, in practice (since 1378 anyway), the conclave always chooses a cardinal).
Also, Donald Trump is not Catholic.
This tweet is from the actual White House …
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 3, 2025
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Sydney candidates post Airtasker ads for workers to hand out how-to-vote cards
Several candidates in Sydney – Australia’s most fiercely capitalistic city – have posted “handing out how-to-vote cards” ads on Airtasker, hoping to bolster their presence at polling booths – and, so the logic goes, their votes.
A perfunctory search of the service marketplace app revealed several candidates posted ads seeking gig economy workers for “Polling booth attendance”.
Most ads are a little coy about precisely whose electoral fortunes workers will benefit.
One from a “David S” asks for assistance handing out how-to-vote cards in Manly in the keenly contested, independent-held seat of Warringah. He set a task budget of $100.
The independent candidate for Reid, Steven Commerford, has put his name to his campaign’s $120 offer. “Wear comfy shoes,” the ad counsels. “T-shirt or cap provided.”
Another post offers $35 (with some negotiation apparent) to put up corflutes in and around Chatswood.
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Trying the Uber Eats democracy sausage
In a federal election first, Uber Eats is allowing customers in certain cities to order democracy sausages to their door, for “hardworking Australians” who “find themselves without access to a sausage” on 3 May.
Parts of Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney have access to the promo, with $3.50 for every sausage donated to Australian Red Cross partners.
Unfortunately, Rafqa Touma was outside the delivery zone and was instead offered a bulk package of uncooked sausages – not really the same. I ordered a meat sausage with onion and sauce and a vegetarian sausage from the “Democracy Sausage Store” for $15.96, delivery included.
It took less than half an hour to arrive in green boxes labelled “democracy sausage delivered”. Inside was, unsurprisingly, a piece of white bread with a sausage, sauces in sachets and a ballot paper that ticked preferences for sauces, onion and variety of sausage. “Exercise your Democratic Bite,” the box told me.
The meat sausage was cold, while the vegetarian sausage tasted like sawdust. I gave the leftovers to my dog, who lapped it up eagerly and stained his snout with mustard.
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Dutton and Albanese cast votes
Prime minister Anthony Albanese and opposition leader Peter Dutton have both lodged their votes.
Dutton voted in his seat of Dickson at the Albany Creek state school in Brisbane with his wife, Kirilly, and sons, Harry and Tom. He’s held the seat since 2001.
Albanese was joined by his partner, Jodie, and son, Nathan, at a primary school in Marrickville, Sydney. The polling station is in his seat, Grayndler, which he’s held since 1996.
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Palestine, gun crime and cost of living key issues in Blaxland in Sydney’s west
Next to the seat of Parramatta is Blaxland, where independent Ahmed Ouf hopes to unseat Labor for the first time in the electorate’s history.
It’s currently held by the education minister, Jason Clare, on a 13% margin. Mufeeza, 24, is campaigning for Ouf at Parramatta west public school. Before he ran for parliament, she knew him as her local chemist.
It’s a movement I actually support due to his stance on Palestine, so I’m here to support him. I’ve lived here all my life and we haven’t had representation, except from the Greens, until now.
Outside the polling booth, votes are split. Russal, who’s been in the area for just under three years, voted Liberal due to the party’s tough stance on crime and desire for “more police patrols” after gun violence in the area.
Rebecca, a university worker who recently moved to the electorate, voted Greens, citing the party’s stance on housing affordability, cost-of-living policies and opposition to international student caps.
Meanwhile, Pramola, who recently became an Australian citizen, voted Labor, in large part because of its childcare subsidy. Her son has just turned one.
Since Covid, cost of living has increased a lot, but it’s the entire world, right? Because of inflation. I think people are more happy under Labor.
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Volunteers make nice at Parramatta school after corflute drama Friday night
Parramatta west public school had regained a sense of calm on Saturday afternoon after Liberal signs erected late last night were removed or destroyed. Volunteers stood side by side, despite wearing different colours, jesting amicably.
The Liberal candidate, Katie Mullens, who is contesting the marginal seat for the first time, told the Sydney Morning Herald it was “disappointing” people were putting their efforts into “destruction instead of the issues that really matter”.
Warren Gardener has been volunteering for Labor for 50 years. He says Andrew Charlton, who holds the seat on a 3.7% margin, has gone from an outsider last election to the frontrunner. He wasn’t involved in any poster removal but says this year has been marred by drama over corflutes.
Some of this stuff has become over the top, flyering everywhere … here it’s usually civilised … I don’t see how [putting up posters] helps the Coalition. A few months ago things weren’t looking very good [for Labor] but things have turned around quite dramatically.
Josh is volunteering for the Liberal party for the second time. The 23-year-old says the cost of living is the biggest issue on people’s minds – particularly for him as a new homeowner and small business owner.
It’s a pretty even split here from what I can see – a lot of people are moving away from the major parties too. One thing people aren’t factoring is preferences. One Nation preferencing Liberal second is going to be huge.
There’s been some nastiness [during the campaign] – I’ve been spat on by another volunteer. It’s nice today to have volunteers that regardless of parties are getting along.
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Enough with the magic screens and TPP projections - if there is not a dirigible in tonight’s election coverage, I will be very disappointed.
Bring back the National Tally Room. Miss u babes #auspol #ausvotes #royandhg pic.twitter.com/wAimP9QWNY
— australian kitsch 🦘 (@OzKitsch) May 3, 2025
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Australians cast ballots from Antarctica to Apia, Nauru to New York
Tens of thousands of Australians will cast ballots around the world this election.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and Austrade will manage 111 overseas voting locations in 83 countries, the largest number ever for a federal election.
In the 2023 Voice referendum, 63,000 in-person votes were cast, and more than 9000 postal votes were received.
For the first time, Australians in the Maldives have been able to cast their vote in person at the Australian high commission in Male. It is also the first time Australians in Kolkata, an Indian city, and Koror, a city in the western Pacific country of Palau, have been able to vote in person at a federal election.
London is the largest international polling place in every Australian federal election, but there are also major voting centres in New York, Berlin, and Hong Kong.
Barely a handful of voters are expected in booths in Nauru, Accra, Rarotonga and Bandar Seri Begawan.
Even Australians stationed in Antarctica are required to vote; they can cast a ballot by phone.
Australia has voting centres all across the Pacific, including in Vanuatu (where Australia is the largest source of tourists).
“Australia’s election process sprawls right across the Pacific, all the way to the island of Tahiti at Australia’s consulate general in Pape’ete, French Polynesia,” Australia’s deputy consul-general to Pape’ete, Claire Lewis, said.
This year, three cruise ships will be docked in Pape’ete Port, each carrying over 1,000 passengers, many of whom are Australian. Our small post will be ready to welcome Australians who will vote in this year’s federal election.”
Between 60 and 80 Australians live in French Polynesia, which swells with thousands of tourists visiting the idyllic islands from October to May.
Read more from Ima Caldwell here:
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A new election oracle? Monique Ryan hit by bird poo during interview
Independent member for Kooyong Monique Ryan endures some forthright but unconventional constituent feedback.
Getting hit with bird poop is considered good luck isn't it? #AusVotes2025 pic.twitter.com/44kOpFbPcE
— Andrew Greene (@AndrewBGreene) May 3, 2025
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Bondi voters think Allegra Spender has it ‘in the bag’ at Wentworth, but others are more cautious
“It’s starting to get busy now,” the AEC official overseeing the voting at Bondi public school in Sydney’s inner east says. He is eyeing the queue of parents juggling cups of organic chai and pushing democracy sausages into ravenous kids who have just finished Saturday morning sport.
Around the ebullient kids - for whom the Bondi v Coogee netball scores matter far more than Labor v Liberal ballot numbers - voters and volunteers of all stripes are chatting politely. It’s a community going out of its way to demonstrate democracy can be civil.
“There’s been such a lot of pre-polling in this area, so the vibe is a lot more subdued than last election when it was a lot more reactionary,” says Kirk McDonald, a volunteer for the Wentworth MP, Allegra Spender.
“I think it’s probably in the bag for Allegra,” one voter opines to the concurrence of others.
Her name recognition is so strong in these parts that the independent is afforded the mononym.
“I’m very impressed with Allegra’s campaign. She’s got my support. Her supporters are out in force, which is great to see,” Umesh Chauhan, the man behind the organic chai, says.
Others were less enthusiastic and more cautious. Labor supporter Mark Gerada says the “Bill Shorten election” (of 2019) still lurks at the back of his mind. And another politician, also not running in this election, is there too – he currently sits behind the Resolute Desk at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
“I want Labor to win federally, and Allegra locally, and I feel quietly confident, but I just don’t trust anything anymore, especially after the American election. It cast a big shadow. At least for us, this time, I hope something good will come of it,” Gerada says.
The loss of the Voice makes me so sad. There’s been no talk at all about Indigenous Australia during the election campaign, which makes me so sad.
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‘Albacheesy’, ‘hard snag of the opposition’ and Teal roll with ‘dash of inner-city guilt’: democracy sausages get innovative
Some polling stations are getting creative with democracy sausages.
At Crown Street primary school in Surry Hills (in the Labor electorate of Sydney), the Dutton Dog Classic offers: “Sausage in bread. No cheese. No onions. No smiles. Just the hard snag of the opposition.” The Teal Gourmet Roll is bougie with halloumi and rocket toppings, and comes with “a free slice of climate concern and a dash of inner-city guilt”. And the One Nation Hot Wings claim to be “so spicy they will have you screaming: ‘send them back to the kitchen’”.
At Double Bay public school in Wentworth, an “Albacheesy” snag boasts onion and cheese toppings.
And the bake stall at Marrickville public school is rather colourful indeed:
But the price of a snag in some electorates is “a far cry from the days of my youth, where the same sausage would cost only a gold coin donation,” voter Chloe Taylor says. At Kensignton public school, also in Wentworth, a simple sausage costs $7.
“When I posted this on my Instagram story, the replies from my friends were shocked reacts and comments like ‘criminal!’ and ‘democracy is dead’,” Taylor says.
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Hume’s ‘Chinese spies’ accusation made potential volunteers ‘afraid’ to work on polling booths, says Li
Li also called out unsubstantiated comments made by Coalition frontbencher Jane Hume that “Chinese spies” could be working on Labor pre-poll booths. He said Australians with Chinese heritage had contacted him and offered to volunteer, but they no longer felt comfortable.
They were afraid they would be accused of being spies ... it’s totally disenfranchising for the Australian Chinese community ... we’ve been here for over 200 years. We have just as much right to participate in Australian democracy as anyone else.
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NSW state MP Jason Yat-Sen Li confident but ‘chasing every single vote’ for Labor at Burwood booth
The NSW state member for Strathfield, Jason Yat-Sen Li, is handing out flyers for the Reid MP, Sally Sitou, at the front of Burwood primary school in Sydney’s inner west. He’s been here since 8am and feels confident Labor will win, but is “chasing every single vote”.
The feeling’s good ... In this area, cost of living and schools - the fact we’re fully funding public schools - is really resonating. There’s also a lot of Chinese heritage residents around here - for them what’s resonating is they don’t like nuclear power because they’ve experienced Fukushima, and the hangover from the Morrison years is still in their minds.
Li doesn’t think the Liberal party’s choice to run a candidate with Chinese heritage will make a difference. According to census data, 32.8% of the Burwood population has Chinese ancestry, compared with 5.5% nationally.
It’s great that there are more Chinese Aussies putting their hand up - it’s also great for the electorate to have a diverse candidate from both major parties. But ... I don’t think just because someone’s Chinese people would vote for them.
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Coalition hoping to take seat of Reid from Labor’s Sally Sitou
In the Sydney inner west suburb of Burwood, Liberal party posters reading “Let’s Get Australia Back on Track” have been wrapped around Burwood Public school’s fence.
The Coalition is hoping to take the seat of Reid from Labor’s Sally Sitou, who took it from the Liberals on a margin of 5.2% in 2022.
Gavin, 24, is volunteering for the first time backing the Liberal candidate, Grange Chung. Gavin says Chung’s background – both are Chinese Australians – is what inspired him to get involved.
It’s not about the party, I just want to support a great candidate like him. Many people like him, I’ve had a lot of support.
Christopher Xie, 18, cast his first ballot at Burwood Public on Saturday morning. He’s lived in the area for 13 years, and voted for the Greens with Hecs/Help debt front of centre as a new university student, as well as the housing crisis and transport costs.
I think it’s important to vote because a lot of people now are recognising that they have a stronger voice, especially in their local area. Sally [Sitou] has been to a lot of events and done a lot of advocating, with every party and every politician they can always do better, but she’s done very well.
Angela Yao, 26, voted for Sitou with tax and energy bill relief in mind.
Growing up, my parents have always voted Labor, because I think they benefit the immigrants more. I’ve always leaned towards Labor and did this time too.
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Upstanding Australian, Max (a dog), is the face of the Cute and Honest Cavalier Party appearing on a (not so) official federal election corflute in the Gold Coast, Queensland.
“Unfortunately I had already voted before I saw this poster on the Gold Coast,” Guardian’s Warren Murray lamented.
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Dutton makes 17th campaign visit to a petrol station
Opposition leader Peter Dutton has dropped into a petrol station with senator James Patterson as he visits Melbourne swing seats this election morning.
(Looks like the 17th petrol station he has made an appearance at during his election campaign.)
Here he is, pictured holding a “25 cents off petrol” sign:
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Peter Dutton facing double threat in Dickson
Dickson candidates Ellie Smith and Ali France are both cautiously hopeful of a historic victory over Liberal leader Peter Dutton.
No federal opposition leader has ever lost their seat at an election.
Both voted early on Saturday morning. France, from Labor, voted at Bray Park, with Smith voting at Albany Creek.
It’s the first campaign for Smith, a teal candidate, but the third for the Labor candidate, who has gradually worn away Dutton’s majority. Dickson is now among the most marginal seats in Queensland.
“I feel positive, really positive. I think that, you know, it’s been seven years of work for me and the team, and the positive thing this time is that I’ve really gotten to know a lot of people in the electorate. I’ve knocked on so many doors, I’ve had so many conversations. I feel like people really know who I am and what I stand for now,” France said.
Queensland premier David Crisafulli - who represents a seat on the Gold Coast - joined the party faithful handing out how to vote cards in the west Brisbane seat on Saturday morning but left shortly after the Guardian arrived.
Smith said it showed the party was worried about the seat.
“I feel really confident that we’ve run a very professional campaign and we’ve done absolutely everything that we can. There’s just been so many volunteers and a lot of gratitude from voters as well to have somebody different to vote for,” she said.
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More than half Australian electoral roll cast their votes early, AEC says
At least 8.5 million people (that’s nearly half the total electoral roll) cast their ballot before election day today, the Australian Electoral Commission has said.
More than 6.77 million people cast a prepoll vote, 1.64 million postal votes were returned as of last night, and 155,000 people voted with a mobile team.
“With more completed postal votes to come back, there is no doubt that more than half of everyone who will cast a vote in this federal election has done so before the day,” AEC said.
So we might see prepoll centre counts finishing late tonight.
Read more here:
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Speaking of another kind of democracy dog … here is a little album of pups making the election campaign rounds.
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The democracy sausage, our national symbol of election day. Where can you find one – and what about other treats like cakes, coffee and bacon and eggs? Check the crowdsourced map!
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The Greens leader Adam Bandt is at a polling station in East Brunswick, a Melbourne suburb in the electorate of Wills that the Greens are hoping to win from Labor. He’s handing out how to vote cards alongside the Greens candidate, Samantha Ratnam.
The Greens leader is also a fan of the pre-9am democracy sausage. When asked if this is his first sausage of the day by a volunteer, Bandt said “the real question is how many will I eat today?”
Wills is one of two target seats for the Greens in Victoria. The other is Macnamara, in Melbourne’s south eastern suburbs.
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Greens candidate in hotly contested Wills puts case to Labor voters
The Greens candidate in Wills, Samantha Ratnam, was at a polling booth in East Brunswick as soon as it opened this morning. She’ll place her vote here alongside the Greens leader, Adam Bandt, shortly.
Wills is a hotly contested seat, with the Greens hopeful they can pick it up from Labor MP, Peter Khalil. In recent days the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, has been at polling booths helping to secure the seat.
The conflict in Gaza has been an issue in this seat – along with the cost of living. On my way into the polling both, I walked past a small dog that had a Palestinian flag attached to its collar.
Ratnam is trying to convince Labor voters to make the jump to the Greens:
A vote for the Greens is a vote to keep Dutton out and to get Labor to act - there is no risk that you’ll help Dutton get elected by voting for the Greens.
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Polls open in WA
The clock has struck 8am in Perth – meaning polling stations are all officially open across Australia. Happy voting!
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Voters popped by the polling station at Bondi beach after a morning swim to cast their votes. A colourful sight!
We want to see your pictures of anything interesting or memorable at the booths today – so send me your things! Reach me here: rafqa.touma@theguardian.com
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Peter Dutton makes his final pitch to voters
Dutton gave his final pitch to undecided voters on Nine’s Weekend Today:
I have the experience as the defence minister and home affairs minister and as the health minister and immigration minister, I’ve worked for four prime ministers, and I was the assistant treasurer to Peter Costello. I want to help get our economy back on track.
I want to reduce inflation so we can bring the interest rates down and bring cost of living down, cut petrol by $0.25 a litre, $1,200 tax rebate back. Restore the dream of home ownership and get this great country back on track.
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Opposition leader Peter Dutton was on Nine’s Weekend Today earlier this morning. Asked if he will stay in politics and as opposition leader if he loses the election, Dutton said he is still young with a “burning passion”:
You can’t go to the grand final talking like that. You can only talk about winning.
I’m 54. I’m still very young, and I’ve just got a burning passion … for this country. And I just think we live in the best country in the world. Whatever we can do to make it even better is what we contribute ourselves to.
And I’ve worked really hard over the last three years. We’ve got a united team, and I think there are a lot of quiet Australians out there who may not be telling their neighbours how they’re voting, but I think they’re going to go into the polling booth and say, you know what, I’m not going to reward Anthony Albanese for the last three years. And I think the other mob can manage the economy more effectively, can keep us safe in a really uncertain time. And can try to bring the crime rates down in our local suburbs as well. I think they’re all, you know, the thoughts that are going through people’s minds at the moment.
Under a perfect blue sky perhaps more reminiscent of home than the customary grey of London, ex-pats in Britain have been queueing up to vote at Australia House.
The wait to cast a ballot has been up to 30 minutes with the line snaking out of the entrance and up and down the pavement.
From smartly dressed office workers (the men making up surely the biggest concentration of RMs in the northern hemisphere) to holidaymakers ensuring they don’t get caught out for not being at home, there was a large cross-section of Australians in the line
But if the number of people holding Labor how-to-vote cards was anything to go by on the day Guardian Australia did its democratic duty, it’s a surefire landslide for Anthony Albanese today.
Asked how much Donald Trump and international politics has influenced the Australian election, Albanese said: “this has overwhelmingly been about Australian issues”.
The prime minister said the opposition has made an attempt at running “American style politics here of division”:
Meanwhile, the opposition thought that they could just run on grievance and try to divide Australians. We’ve seen them try to start culture wars, including against Indigenous people, targeting them. Australians aren’t obsessed by those issues. We’ve seen an attempt to run American style politics here of division and pitting Australians against each other, and I think that that’s not the Australian way.
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Albanese says he’s aiming for ‘back to back wins’
The prime minister Anthony Albanese was on ABC earlier this morning, saying “back to back wins” is “what we are aiming for today”.
He made his final pitch to undecided or disillusioned voters:
We have a plan for cost of living relief today, by investing in tomorrow. We have a plan to make sure that we continue to build more urgent care clinics. 1.3 million Australians have benefited from that … 600,000 Australians have benefited from free Tafe … And for every single Australian taxpayer, all 14 million of them … will get a tax cut. We’ve created a million jobs since we were in office. Unemployment is the lowest it has been for any government in 50 years. But we know that there’s more to do, but if we get it right, if we are optimistic about Australia’s future, including acting on climate change and the opportunity it represents, not just the challenge, then we can be incredibly successful as a nation, and that stands in contrast to our opponents who’ve been bumping into each other on the field, who haven’t been able to take a mark during this campaign because they don’t know what they are doing.
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Final polls show Labor in lead
Labor is leading the Coalition 51.4% to 48.6% in Guardian Australia’s poll tracker, after a flurry of final polls from DemosAu, Newspoll, YouGov and Roy Morgan. This is close to a repeat of the last election, but, as you can see in the chart below, even on election day there is still uncertainty.
Labor’s estimated primary vote is steady at 30%, and the Coalition 33% in the latest average. The polls have Labor’s primary vote a little bit higher than this, but the model thinks there might be an overestimation of Labor as was seen in previous elections.
The estimated primary share for the Greens is about 13% according to our model, which would be about a one point increase on the last election. Others and Independents, a group that includes One Nation and the Teal independents, are on 23.5%, up about four points.
It is unclear how this will translate into seats given the increase in the number of electorates that are three-way contests, rather than coming down to a fight between Labor and the Coalition. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff told Guardian Australia that the latest polls show the Coalition “going backwards” in a selection of key seats he has been tracking, after initial polls in February had the Coalition ahead.
You can find more granular breakdowns of the polls, including by demography, on our tracking page.
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How did Australians in Antarctica vote?
Somewhat further afield, Australians have already voted, Emily Wind reports:
In the leadup to election day, Australians have cast their ballots in a number of remote locations and even from overseas – but none as far south as the 100-odd expeditioners currently working in Antarctica.
Expeditioners working at Australia’s Antarctic and sub-Antarctic stations were able to cast their vote by telephone – a process typically reserved for voters who are blind or have low vision – with no physical ballot booth setup this year.
Voting opened on 22 April, with expeditioners able to vote early or on election day. But, unlike others, they won’t be fined if they do not vote, according to the Australian Electoral Commission.
The AEC says Australians travelling to work in Antarctica need to register as an Antarctic elector before leaving the country – with “Antarctic” including the Australian Antarctic Territory, the Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands, Macquarie Island, and a ship at sea in transit to or from Antarctica.
Arrangements were put in place for expeditioners on the RSV Nuyina in case it arrived back later than scheduled (on 2 May, the day before the election).
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Polls open in eastern states
It is just past 8am here in Sydney, and the polling booths are officially open!
Voters can lodge their ballots between 8am to 6pm today.
For a refresher on when, where and how to vote, here is our 2025 voting guide with everything you need to know.
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Final Newspoll of campaign
The final Newspoll of the campaign suggests Anthony Albanese will defy the trend of recent years and become the first prime minister to win a second term since John Howard.
The survey for the Australian has Labor leading the Coalition by 52.5-47.5% on a two-party preferred basis.
On a primary vote basis, Labor is on 33 percentage points, the Coalition on 34, Greens on 13, One Nation on 8.
What’s more, it shows that a majority of voters think they will be better off with another Labor government than with the Coalition.
The outcome, however, remains on a “knife-edge” according to our political correspondent Dan Jervis-Bardy. While Albanese looks like he has his nose in front, Peter Dutton is still claiming he will win a shock victory.
Read Dan’s piece here:
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Asked what she thought was going to cut through, Gallagher said:
We’ve had a clear message. We’ve provided our costings and transparency. We’ve let people know how we want to help them and I think what they saw yesterday afternoon with the release of the Liberal costings – no wonder in the dying days of the campaign – you know, bigger deficits, higher taxes, and savage cuts to Medicare to pay for nuclear and I think that certainly has been front and centre of people’s minds. What do you want for the future?
Do you want seven nuclear reactors built around this country that you’re going to pay for with your taxes?
Asked if she gave the Coalition credit for finding things to save on in their costings, she said:
I think that the release of costings yesterday was a massive con job. I don’t accept for a moment – and I’ve looked at the costings pretty thoroughly – that they would actually with that plan deliver an improved bottom line. It’s made on dodgy numbers about public service cuts – 41,000 jobs to go.
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Last-minute pitches to voters
Labor’s finance minister, Katy Gallagher, and the shadow minister for home affairs, James Paterson, were both on 7:30 last night to make their final pitch to voters.
Paterson denied the Liberal party was going to change the pension for people overseas after the Coalition’s costings suggested the party would change the social security rules so people travelling internationally would get just four weeks’ payments.
Paterson said:
This prime minister as of today has told more than 100 lies in this campaign. His latest lie is that the opposition is proposing changes to the pension for people who travel overseas. There are no such changes. We are making no changes to people on the pension who travel overseas.
Paterson said many voters would make up their mind right before they enter the booth:
They’ll have to decide if they want $14 off a tank of petrol or diesel. Do they want a $1,200 tax rebate next year? Do they want a strong economic plan under Peter Dutton, who can get cost of living under control and our country back on track?
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Election day dawns
Good morning and welcome to our election day blog. It’s been a long, gruelling five weeks but at long last the day has arrived – despite the fact that around seven million people have already voted.
We will be around the grounds this morning – from all parts of Australia to Antarctica and London and back again – to bring you the news of how everything’s going down.
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