RECAP: Asian stocks rose sharply yesterday, led by chip and AI firms, as investors brushed off concern about fresh US-Iran hostilities, which has put the spotlight back on oil prices and inflation risk.
Thai shares continued their advance after moving back above 1,600 points on Thursday, as investors believe the Constitutional Court's approval of the government's emergency borrowing decree provides further room for fiscal stimulus.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,574.13 and 1,621.55 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,621.55, up 0.6% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 79.31 billion baht.
Foreign investors were net buyers of 16.35 billion baht. Institutional investors were net sellers of 7.7 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 4.04 billion and retail investors at 1.93 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire agreement with Iran "over" as the two countries engaged in back-and-forth strikes and shipping through the State of Hormuz started to slow down again.
Brent crude prices jumped to $79 a barrel in response to Trump's announcements, but later eased to $76.30 after he said Iran had reached out to request peace negotiations.
Opec+ agreed to raise cumulative quotas by 940,000 barrels per day (1% of global demand) to keep crude prices in check.
The 30-year US Treasury yield hit 5.2%, its highest since 2007, reflecting worries about price hikes because of the Iran war.
Minutes of last month's Fed meeting showed a unanimous vote to hold US interest rates at 3.75%, but the tone was surprisingly hawkish. The dot plot forecast showed 9 members favoured at least one hike and 9 others preferred to hold or cut.
Ukraine launched a drone strike on the Omsk refinery in Siberia, which has a capacity of 21 million tonnes a year. It is the largest among 11 refineries hit by Ukraine, and the deepest strike inside Russia since the war began in 2022.
UAE oil output was estimated to have hit a six-year high of 3.8 million barrels a day in June after it left Opec. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut its August 2026 selling prices for Asia by $11 a barrel, marking its first discount in six years.
Microsoft said on Monday it was eliminating about 4,800 jobs -- roughly 2% of its global workforce -- in a cost-cutting move that will deliver a sweeping restructuring of its struggling Xbox division.
Meta Platforms plans to start manufacturing an AI chip from September as part of its plan to boost overall computing power to 14 gigawatts next year.
Micron Technology said it plans to invest up to $3 billion to strengthen the US semiconductor supply-chain ecosystem.
Thailand's Constitutional Court ruled 7-2 on Thursday that the government's 400-billion-baht emergency loan decree was lawful, lifting uncertainty over state spending plans.
The Board of Investment announced the approval of $2 billion worth of new investment projects, led by a 23-billion-baht expansion of coffee production by Nestle, and new plane leases by Thai Airways International.
Thailand's headline inflation for June rose 2.42% year-on-year, down from 2.74% in May, reflecting easing inflationary pressure as oil prices declined.
The Oil Fuel Fund reduced diesel prices by by 2.56 baht a litre and gasoline by 2.51 baht, capping prices at 35 baht, after PM Anutin Charnvirakul said declines in world oil prices justified a faster response from oil retailers.
Thailand registered more than 100,000 passenger EVs in the first half of 2026, up 90% year-on-year and accounting for 30% of the car market. Full-year registrations are expected to exceed 150,000 units, up from 118,490 in 2025.
The International Monetary Fund has upgraded Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.9% from 1.5%, supported by stimulus measures. The IMF cut its global growth forecast to 3% from 3.1%, citing geopolitical tensions and inflation risks.
The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating discrepancies in filing documentation for share purchases in six Thai companies from 2021-25 by a mystery investor who last week reported acquiring a 7% stake worth 32 billion baht in True Corp.
CP Group, the lead partner in the Asia Era One consortium, says it is unable to proceed with the three-airport high-speed rail project as lenders no longer find it viable after six years of delays. The government is reviewing its options, which could involve a fresh bidding round or restructured, more commercially viable project terms.
Consumer confidence rose for the first time in four months in June, supported by falling oil prices and the co-payment scheme, said the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
Industrial confidence rose for the first time in four months to 88.2 in June, from 84.7 in May, supported by government measures aimed at reducing living costs and stimulating domestic consumption, the Federation of Thai Industries said.
The plan to collect a tourism fee of at least 300 baht through airlines is not feasible because of limitations in airlines' back-office systems, aviation experts say. They say collecting via the Thailand Digital Arrival Card (TDAC) system is a better option.
The Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported 530,000 foreign arrivals in the week ending July 3, driven by the summer school holidays in short- and long-haul markets. The year-to-date total of 16.2 million is down 3.1% from the same period last year.
A 30-billion-baht "half-interest loan" project via the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives will offer smallholders up to 100,000 baht each at 3% per year for 3 years to promote precision farming.
Central Pattana Plc (CPN) has partnered with Japan's Mitsubishi Estate to announce an 11-billion-baht mixed-use project, Central Central, scheduled to open its retail space in 2027.
COMING UP: On Monday, Opec members will meet and India releases June inflation data. On Tuesday, the US reports inflation and China reports trade figures and new lending. On Wednesday, China reports GDP, industrial production and unemployment rate, the US updates producer prices and the Bank of Canada decides on interest rates. On Thursday, the US reports retail sales and the UK announces GDP. On Friday, the US reports its import-export price index, industrial production and 5-year inflation expectations. Locally, Finnomena on Wednesday discusses its second-half economic and investment outlook.
STOCKS TO WATCH: InnovestX Securities says the Constitutional Court's decision to uphold the government's 400-billion-baht borrowing decree is supportive for Thai equities as it clears the way for renewable energy investments. Continued foreign fund inflows also reflect improving confidence. On the downside, renewed Middle East tensions and the start of the second-quarter earnings season could increase market volatility. Its top picks are GLOBAL, GPSC and MTC.
Tisco Securities notes that energy authorities have asked refiners to cut their ex-refinery diesel marketing margin by 1.40 baht a litre for 20 days, similar to measures introduced earlier this year. If they comply, it would reduce refining margins by $2.80 per barrel for PTTGC, $2.70 for IRPC, and $1.70 for TOP and SPRC.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Trinity Securities sees support at 1,577 points and resistance at 1,625. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,575 and resistance at 1,645.
