Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports third-quarter earnings after the bell Thursday, with the call at 5 p.m. ET.
It will be Tim Cook’s last as CEO before he moves to executive chairman and hands the role to John Ternus on Sept. 1.
Polymarket gives Apple an 82% chance of beating its estimated GAAP EPS of $1.89, but the livelier action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words Cook says on his way out.
Analysts expect revenue of about $108.9 billion, up roughly 16%, after Apple guided for growth of 14% to 17%.
What Kalshi Predicts Cook Will Say
“Tariff” leads at 90%, with “Manufacturing” at 77%. Apple announced a new Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) agreement expected to exceed $30 billion, its largest commitment yet under the American Manufacturing Program.
The agreement includes a $1.5 billion investment to expand Broadcom’s Fort Collins, Colorado, plant, giving Apple a larger U.S.-based supply of the radio-frequency components and wireless connectivity technologies it calls essential to its devices.
Apple’s domestic manufacturing push could provide some protection against tariffs, even as Cook calls price hikes “unavoidable” with memory costs climbing.
“Broadcom” itself trades at just 56%. Traders apparently expect Cook to tout the factories more than the partner.
"Siri" sits at 86%. Apple unveiled the rebuilt assistant at Cook’s final WWDC in June, powered by a custom version of Google’s Gemini under a deal reportedly worth about $1 billion a year to Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL).
Traders are less convinced Cook will credit the supplier. “Gemini” trades at 37%, ahead of “OpenAI / ChatGPT” at 26%.
“Formula 1” trades at 68%. Apple is now more than halfway through the first season of its exclusive US broadcast agreement, reportedly worth about $150 million to $160 million annually, giving Cook a fresh Services growth story to highlight.
What Kalshi Predicts Cook Will Skip
"iPhone 18" trades at just 12% and "Fold / Folding / Foldable" at 13%, even though the iPhone 18 Pro models and Apple’s first foldable are expected in roughly six weeks, with suppliers reportedly told to prepare 10 million foldables this year.
Apple does not normally discuss unreleased products, and the board says traders expect no exception.
“Liquid Glass,” the design language Apple just refined in iOS 27, sits at 17%. “Friday Night Baseball” trades at 12%, squeezed out of the sports pitch by F1.
Reading the Board
Options traders expect a move of roughly 3.8% in either direction, according to CNBC.
The number most likely to decide the reaction is gross margin, guided to 47.5% to 48.5%. That range has to absorb both tariffs and the rising memory costs that Cook said make price increases "unavoidable."
Services carries most of that load. The segment brought in a record $30.9 billion last quarter at margins above 70%, though App Store growth reportedly slowed to about 3.2% from 9.8%, with Bank of America expecting iCloud and licensing to make up the difference.
The board is betting Cook stays on script. Gross margin will decide whether the stock stays calm.
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