Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) began in 2013 as a tongue-in-cheek response to the growing seriousness of the crypto space. Today, it is one of the biggest crypto projects out there, with its market capitalization ranked 8th. In terms of name recognition, DOGE is within the top three cryptocurrencies, especially after Elon Musk popularized it by renaming a government service after it.
Analysts now think a DOGE ETF is imminent. Rex Shares and Osprey Funds are expected to launch a Dogecoin ETF under the ticker “DOJE.” The fund has been structured as an Investment Company Act of 1940 product. This path sidesteps the lengthy 19b-4 process used for spot Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD) ETFs. The SEC has already declared the prospectus effective for today, Sept. 9, 2025. On Polymarket, bettors peg the chance of a Dogecoin ETF approval this year at 91%.
Can This ETF Cause DOGE to Surge?
History suggests the debut of a regulated ETF can re-rate an asset. Bitcoin delivered ~161% in gains since the first spot ETF was approved by the SEC in January 2024. Institutions and individuals have been hoovering up BTC as more spot ETFs came online. Holding spot Bitcoin ETFs in your 401(k)s is now more tax-friendly than holding them in a wallet.
Ethereum has also been soaring after ETH spot ETFs were approved, though it is a bit late to the party. Only in the past few months has it been outperforming BTC.
Dogecoin's first ETF is expected to start trading today, but there's a crucial caveat:
It's not a spot ETF.
As such, I don't expect DOGE to benefit significantly from it.
How the "DOJE" ETF Will Work
The new "DOJE" ETF will use futures contracts and swaps without holding the actual digital asset. These contracts are essentially agreements to buy or sell the crypto at a predetermined price on a future date, and the ETF's share price will move in tandem with the value of those derivatives.
It will not directly drive up Dogecoin's spot price, as there will not be any buying of the crypto itself. It will simply be indirect and speculative inflows if the ETF does attract significant interest.
Should You Buy or Sell DOGE Now?
I will still buy Dogecoin but maintain limited exposure to it. Spot DOGE ETFs are being proposed by Grayscale and Bitwise, which are still under SEC review. If these are approved, they can drive up DOGE.
Still, DOGE should not constitute a double-digit portion of your crypto portfolio. There has been a recent trend of crypto investors consolidating into utility projects or those with staying power. The current market is very picky, and Dogecoin remains unattractive due to its lack of utility and digital scarcity. There's no supply cap, and it has a fixed yearly issuance of 5 billion tokens. In comparison, Ethereum is deflationary, whereas Bitcoin's inflation is minuscule and expected to drop to 0.If we look at near-term trends, DOGE looks more bullish. It has broken through several important resistance lines.
If the broader market continues trending bullish, it could make a move towards $0.25, though it needs a strong catalyst to break beyond it.My year-end price target sits near $0.35, which implies around 47% upside from here.
I would assume a spot DOGE ETF would have to go through for this to happen. If the market remains range-bound or retreats and a spot ETF is not approved this year, DOGE could slide below $0.20 as opportunistic investors exit.
On the date of publication, Omor Ibne Ehsan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
