For weeks, Labor MPs have been quietly weighing the future of Jacinta Allan.
In hushed conversations in the corridors of parliament, MPs have cited her baggage – her time as Daniel Andrews’ deputy, her role in the cancelled Commonwealth Games and as the minister overseeing the Big Build at a time corruption allegedly was allowed to grow unfettered in the construction union. Even more damaging, some argue, has been her hesitation to act once the corruption was made public.
But above all, the polling: unpopularity figures that stand out sharply at a time when other state Labor leaders are riding high.
A DemosAU poll published in the Herald Sun this week put her net approval at -37%, making her the only state leader in negative territory. Resolve polling for the Age in February cited the same figure, and noted just one in five voters nominated Allan as their preferred premier, her lowest result since taking over from Andrews in late 2023.
What had been largely contained within the party was on Thursday splashed across the front page of the Herald Sun under the headline “friendly fire”. But is it just noise or the beginning of something more consequential?
Guardian Australia has spoken to more than a dozen Labor sources, including ministers and factional powerbrokers who, speaking anonymously to discuss internal matters, confirm there is a push for a leadership change.
Sign up for the Breaking News Australia emailThis is despite the premier herself describing the reports as “anonymous gossip” from a “few scallywags out there who might need a bit of a cuddle”.
“I’ve got great support from my strong and united team,” Allan told reporters on Thursday.
Allan’s supporters note this is not the first time she has had to defend her position. Last year, figures within Labor’s right faction – fearful her unpopularity would be a drag on the party’s vote at the federal election – tried to convince their colleagues to move against her.
The right, decimated after a branch-stacking scandal and then the defection of half a dozen MPs to the left following the 2022 state election, did not have the numbers to challenge her on their own.
But when federal Labor defied months of grim predictions to strengthen its grip in Victoria at last year’s election, the pressure on Allan’s leadership eased.
The right’s most likely leadership candidate, the deputy premier and education minister, Ben Carroll, on Thursday echoed Allan’s comments, describing the caucus as a “strong, united team”. He said there was “no more important role than being the minister for education”, hosing down speculation that he would make a tilt.
What makes the latest rumours more significant is that they are coming from within the premier’s Socialist Left faction, which commands about 39 of the 69-seats that make up caucus.
Several sources put the blame directly on a grouping of Socialist Left MPs within the south-east, though they have emphatically denied it.
One MP from the party’s Socialist Left said the south-east group have “never been happy” with how Allan came into the role, effectively appointed by Andrews. Andrews himself was a member of the south-east grouping.
“Now because her polls are down, they see it as an opportunity to move,” the MP said.
They argued the premier was “always on borrowed time” because while she was “notionally in the left” she never had their support.
Another MP said: “She’s her own person, she’s not beholden to these groupings, which I think makes her leadership more admirable. But it does makes her politically vulnerable.”
The MP described the reports as “a couple of people creating their own weather”, warning that public leaks can help to “create a sense of inevitability that doesn’t yet exist”.
“If it was actually happening, they’ve left a lot of people out of the loop,” they said.
For any challenge to succeed, it would almost certainly require coordination between the factions.
Senior figures on the right are, for now, reluctant to move. One said “nothing will happen” without the left pulling the trigger.
“There is still a large enough grouping in the left that are reluctant,” they said. “Clearly they haven’t made up their mind but if they want to do it they have to make a move soon.”
One MP, from the party’s right, said they did not support a leadership spill, saying it was not a “magic wand” that would fix the issues facing the government. They said a spill would “look like an admission we think we’re going to lose – and we’re nowhere near that point”.
The transport infrastructure minister, Gabrielle Williams, the left faction’s most likely candidate in any leadership challenge, has publicly insisted she offers Allan her “full and unreserved support” and is “not doing the numbers”.
“It’s idle gossip and we pay no attention to it,” Williams said.
She is not alone. A string of ministers including Lily D’Ambrosio, Steve Dimopoulos, Harriet Shing and the treasurer, Jaclyn Symes, reaffirmed their loyalty on Thursday.
“I’m a senior member of this government, I’ll be your source,” Symes said. “I’m right behind Jacinta Allan.”
For now, one thing almost everyone can agree on is a challenge is not imminent.
Some agitating for change said it would be best to wait until after the May state budget to allow Allan to “deliver the bad news” and give a new leader “clear air”. Another said waiting until it was closer to the election would also mean if Allan lost a spill, and resigned alongside some of her staunchest supporters, costly byelections could be avoided.
But those who support the premier doubt she would go quietly. And under party rules adopted a decade ago during the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era, a contested spill would also require a vote among party members.
In the meantime, some within Labor argue for a less dramatic course: bring forward retirements, refresh the ministry, which would surround the premier with newer, more energetic MPs without political baggage.
“It’s a reset that’s needed – not a rupture,” one MP said.
• Benita Kolovos is Guardian Australia’s Victorian state correspondent
