And so they meet again.
Four years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers met in the Super Bowl. It was the then-defining moment of Patrick Mahomes’ already legendary career as the 49ers learned they simply weren’t good enough to win it all (at least at quarterback).
Four years later, both teams took very different paths to this unconventional rematch (for example, Mahomes and Kelce are two of the only remaining starters from that Chiefs team.). At the same time, San Francisco has a quarterback it believes in this time. And while much of the football-consuming public might be sick of Chiefs-49ers for all the marbles yet again, I’d be lying if the matchup itself didn’t present some exciting possibilities.
Let’s map out a few early predictions for what might happen in Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas on February 11.
1
Patrick Mahomes will throw for less than 250 yards, and no more than two touchdowns
Mahomes remains the NFL’s best player, but a lower-powered Chiefs offense has forced him to play more within himself this season. In fact, in 19 starts this year (including playoffs), Mahomes has achieved 300 yards passing on just four occasions. While much of that is by design with a ball-control, power running game Chiefs’ attack, it’s still a significant step down for a quarterback who has passed for at least 5,000 yards twice in his career.
When taking Mahomes’ Super Bowl history into account — a three-game sample size is worth writing home about — he’s also never thrown for more than 286 yards. The Chiefs’ talisman will make the usual key throws and have his team in optimal position for another championship, but his performance won’t be prolific.
Numbers-wise, it won’t be what anyone expects from the biggest name in professional football.
2
Christian McCaffrey will have his way with a shoddy Chiefs' run defense
The Chiefs’ defense was unexpectedly elite overall this year, finishing with the No. 7 DVOA efficiency and the No. 2 scoring defense. But if defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit does have one weakness, it’d be a mediocre run defense that opposing teams have had their way with all year.
Including the playoffs, Kansas City has allowed at least 100 team rushing yards in 15 of 20 games. It’s allowed at least 123 team rushing yards on five occasions. While the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens weren’t able to get much going against this unit in the postseason, a lot of that is probably more about a commitment to the run game because Miami ran the ball just 18 times while Baltimore had only 16 rushing attempts. Meanwhile, the Bills decided to pound the Chiefs with 39 rushes, and it paid off with a whopping 182 team rushing yards in a near-upset.
All of this should be music to the ears of the 49ers, who are only in this Super Bowl because they lean on Christian McCaffrey’s legs every single week. Only Tennessee’s Derrick Henry (280) had more carries than McCaffrey’s 272 during the regular season, and that transferred over seamlessly to 37 attempts for McCaffrey in San Francisco’s two playoff wins.
Kyle Shanahan and Co. will almost certainly give McCaffrey the ball with the expectation that he will slowly grind the Chiefs’ defense into a fine paste. Kansas City’s defensive precedent this year says the superstar tailback should have no problem doing so.
3
The Chiefs' secondary will force at least two mistakes out of Brock Purdy
Conversely, while the Chiefs’ run defense leaves much to be desired, they have no problem shutting opposing passers down.
Some food for thought:
- Quarterbacks have just an 82.1 passer rating against Kansas City this year, which is sixth in the NFL
- Kansas City owns the league’s fourth-best passing defense by yardage (181.5)
- Explosive pass plays are anything that is 20 yards or more, and only five teams have allowed less than the Chiefs this season
Almost no one has had an answer for L’Jarius Sneed, Trent McDuffie, and friends. They keep everything in front of them, and they force quarterbacks to stay patient. The same will hold true against a chaotic talent like Brock Purdy. Among all qualified passers, Purdy’s 2.5 interception rate was 24th in the NFL this season. According to Pro Football Focus, after a shaky regular season, Purdy had three turnover-worthy plays — anything that is within a defender’s vicinity — in San Francisco’s NFC title game win alone.
Should Kansas City get an early lead and force Purdy to press, the Chiefs’ back end will be rightfully licking their chops. Expect Purdy to deliver … for the other team.
4
Travis Kelce will have one of the biggest games of his career en route to Super Bowl MVP
Kelce’s romance with mega pop star Taylor Swift will be one of the biggest stories of Super Bowl 58 — regardless of a Chiefs’ win or loss. That said, he will add extra spice to this by going off against San Francisco’s star linebackers, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.
Kelce’s career-high for receptions in a playoff game is 14. The most single-game receiving yards he’s ever recorded is 134, and he’s scored three touchdowns once. I’m not sure how often he’ll find paydirt per se, but I’d be shocked if Kelce turns out to be a decoy when the Chiefs need him most. He will approach most of the above numbers with ease. That’s because, despite a strong front four, San Francisco has struggled to stop the pass this year, and perhaps no one in football history is better at sitting down in zones than Kelce. The stars are aligning for No. 87 in red.
One might even say the 49ers knew Kelce was trouble when he walked in.
Expect a very heavy diet of arguably the best tight end of all time as he earns Super Bowl MVP honors for the first time.
5
Kansas City wins its third Super Bowl in five seasons with ease
All year long, I found myself unimpressed with this version of the Chiefs. They struggled mightily — at least relative to the impossibly high standard they had previously established — and were not one of the AFC’s top two seeds for the first time in the entire Mahomes’ starting era.
And yet, Kansas City turned on the switch in the postseason anyway. Should the Chiefs beat the 49ers, it will have been the hardest run of high-level DVOA efficiency opponents in league history. That’s right. The Chiefs, whom everyone (including yours truly) wrote off at intermittent points this year, have a chance to cap perhaps the most impressive playoff gauntlet ever. I’m still puzzled just thinking about it.
With one game remaining from official dynasty talks, I won’t bet against Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Travis Kelce. This is their moment, their golden era, and they are built just well enough to overcome the 49ers in the big game … again. Crown them now because the league’s newest exhausting juggernaut team has arrived and won’t be going away any time soon.
