There’s a massive shift in the markets heading our way, one you may not have noticed.
See, markets often rally in the summer. That’s not unusual. But when that rally sticks around into September – usually the worst month of the year for stocks – it’s time to pay attention.
And especially when stocks and bonds both rally at the same time.
Right now, I’m seeing four specific ETFs moving in the same direction, a pattern that tells me the end of the year is shaping up to be very bullish – especially for these ETFs.
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Let's start with SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), the ETF that tracks the S&P 500.
Over the summer, we saw a powerful move from just under 600 in late May to around 660 by mid-September. That's a clean 10% run, and more importantly, it happened during a stretch that's historically known for low volume and choppy price action.
That matters because summer rallies tend to be fragile. But when they hold into September, they often lead to a strong fourth quarter.
We've seen this movie before, and with SPY now consolidating above its June breakout level, the market could be setting up for an October treat for investors and traders alike.
And here's where it gets even more interesting.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), the ETF that tracks long-term Treasury bonds, is rallying too. Over the past few weeks, it has risen from the mid-80s to above 90.
Normally, when stocks rise, bonds fall — and vice versa. But right now, we're seeing both move higher at the same time.
That’s because the market has been sniffing out something important: a federal interest rate cut. We've already seen signs of weakening labor data and downward revisions in economic reports. And on Wednesday, the Fed cut rates by one-quarter point for the first time since December 2024.
This is a rare alignment, and one that could bring lots of opportunities as we move toward the end of the year.
Now let's talk about energy — specifically, oil.
The $72 Level On Oil Could Be A Trigger
United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), the oil ETF, spent the summer in a wide chop zone between the mid-70s and mid-80s. But as we've moved into September, that range has tightened. And right now, $72 is the level I'm watching. Specifically, if USO breaks below $72, it opens the door to a fast slide into the high 60s.
What's important here isn't just the price action — it's the context.
Seasonally, oil tends to weaken after July. And with energy no longer leading headlines (despite escalating global tensions), a breakdown here could drag related stocks lower and create opportunities for put trades.
This is one of those trades where the trigger is clear — and the follow-through could be quick.
Let's move on to gold.
Gold Just Quietly Hit Inflation-Adjusted All-Time Highs
SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), the gold ETF, has climbed more than 10% since summer began. That alone is notable. But what's important is that, adjusted for inflation, gold has now hit a new all-time high.
What’s even more interesting is that there's been almost no retail euphoria. Zero. Zilch. No ad blitzes, no gold-rush headlines, no mainstream FOMO.
That lack of hype is bullish. And it tells me that smart money is still rotating into gold as a safe haven, especially with real yields beginning to decline.
And now that the Fed has cut rates, gold could move even higher — especially if the dollar rolls over.
Last but definitely not least, let's talk about big tech.
Tesla And The ‘Mag 7’ Are Pointing To A Supercycle
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) jumped big on the news of a $1 billion insider buy from Elon Musk. And Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) became the fourth company to cross the $3 trillion market cap.
All of this is captured in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (BATS:MAGS), which tracks the Magnificent 7. That ETF is now up 20% since June.
These moves are more than just headlines. They show that mega-cap tech is still leading, and that money continues to flow into stocks that dominate cloud, AI, and digital infrastructure.
All this leads back to what I believe will be one of the strongest fourth quarters we've ever seen – especially for these four ETFs.
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