Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals fell more or less in line with the incredible story of the Miami Heat’s entire postseason. After taking an initial punch, Miami entered Denver, shut things down in the fourth quarter, and handed the Western Conference champs their first home loss of the entire postseason.
In a stunner for the Nuggets, they were forced to pick up the pieces and wonder where matters went awry. But it would be silly to envision them falling apart now. In the expected outcome for the Heat — because they truly believe they’re never out of a game — they’ve got their focus squarely on three more wins.
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The journey to a championship for both squads continues tonight as the series shifts to Miami for Games 3 and 4 (on Friday). And while these Finals are proving to be unpredictable (in the best way), here are a few bets you can count on for tonight.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
1
Bam Adebayo (Over 32.5 Total Points, Rebounds, Assists)
Through two games of these Finals, Adebayo has been a stat-stuffing monster who is also making Nikola Jokic work. I would not expect this change as the series shifts to South Beach. As the Heat’s lead big man and by far the largest meaningful player on their roster, Miami leans on Adebayo for everything.
He’s the defensive anchor. The de facto point man in the key, putting the Nuggets’ switching defense in a bind on pick and rolls. And, of course, he’s also the tone-setter. If we were to hold to a Finals MVP vote right now, Adebayo would be the Heat’s leader in votes by far.
He’ll continue to give the Nuggets headaches tonight.
2
Jamal Murray (Over 24.5 Points)
Murray is a willing passer, maybe even a great one. But the Nuggets are at their peak when he’s finding space and scoring. In a dynamic duo with Nikola Jokic, that is unequivocally Murray’s role — shooting lights out.
In Game 2, a switch in defensive assignments placed elite perimeter man Jimmy Butler on Murray. Not by coincidence, Murray had his worst performance in a while, shooting just 7-of-15 for 18 points, with eight of those coming in an almost impossible last-two-minute rally.
Entering Miami tonight, I wouldn’t anticipate any significant adjustment that keeps Murray from Butler. Aside from your usual screen, the Nuggets aren’t going to be able to protect Murray from the Heat’s top wing defender. No, instead, I would anticipate Murray hitting more open shots — of which he uncharacteristically missed plenty in Game 2 — and creating more comfort for himself against Butler.
Murray is no second-tier star. He’s too talented offensively as a critical cog in one of the league’s premier attacks to be erased by one defensive matchup. A huge bounceback is imminent for the star guard.
3
Nuggets win (-140)
I know we’re past the point of doubting the Heat. I know they’re resilient and shouldn’t be remotely overlooked anymore. I know they have home court and have been lights out in Miami this postseason — especially in Game 3s.
The Miami Heat are +67 in Game 3s during this playoff run.
They beat the Milwaukee Bucks 121-99.
They beat the New York Knicks 105-86.
They beat the Boston Celtics 128-102.
As of now: 83% of the money and 73% of the spread bets are on the Denver Nuggets (-2.5) tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/PSCSEDz0TV
— Bryan Fonseca 🇵🇷 (@BryanFonsecaNY) June 7, 2023
But I still think that discounts the quality of the Nuggets. This team steamrolled through the West and has been battle-tested themselves — successfully weathering a Devin Booker tornado of points in Round 2.
I know the consensus is leaning easily (almost too easily) toward Denver in Game 3, but that doesn’t make me uncomfortable. That’s because I think Game 2 was more of a wake-up call for a group that won seven straight playoff games and was letting that get to their head. It was reflected in lazy defense, especially on switches, that let Miami get hot from behind the arc. And we saw it in an overall lackadaisical energy that let the Heat, as a team, even these Finals up.
I would be shocked if the Nuggets didn’t come out swinging on the road tonight. They’re too gifted, and they know what’s at stake. Plus, Nikola Jokic remains the best player in the world, capable of wrestling control of the series back on his whims alone.
If anything, after the Nuggets started to read their newspaper clippings too much, losing at home for the first time all postseason was a blessing in disguise for this Western power. After losing it on Sunday evening, Denver takes back home court tonight.
