2025 3M Open Betting Models, Picks: Bomber’s Paradise at TPC Twin Cities

Michael Thorbjornsen | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

After a week at the Open Championship, it’s not a surprise that most of the big names aren’t up for this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. However, that offers a late-season chance for lesser-known players to make some hay and try to earn their way into the FedEx Cup Playoffs. This is a spot that’s often been a launching ground for up-and-comers in recent years. 

TPC Twin Cities opened in 2000 and the Par-72 course designed by Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman has hosted the 3M Open since 2019. Measuring 7,164 yards, the course features bentgrass heavily throughout the property with Kentucky bluegrass and fescue in the rough. One thing we’ve seen, though, is that this course, not dissimilar to something like Detroit Golf Club, gives an advantage to long-hitters off the tee but doesn’t preclude players who might not be as prodigiously gifted in terms of driving distance, as long as the ball-striking is playing. 

With past winners including Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ and last year’s winner Jhonattan Vegas, among others, how should we look to tackle the 3M Open and TPC Twin Cities this week? It’s obviously time we dive into the numbers to figure that out.

Key Stats for the Royal TPC Twin Cities

Strokes gained off-the-tee over the last 24 rounds

Again, we’ve seen time and again that being dominant off the tee at TPC Twin Cities has led to a ton of success for some of the bigger hitters on Tour. So we have to start with how players are driving the ball as of late. 

1. Chris Gotterup (1.15)
2. Michael Thorbjornsen (0.94)
3. Cameron Champ (0.91)
4. Niklas Norgaard (0.88)
5. Rico Hoey (0.71)

Strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds

Being long off the tee isn’t the only way to win at this venue, however. It still comes down to ball striking, only with the irons. If a player is average off the tee and striping it on approach, he’s live. Or, even better if they’re giving us both with the ball striking right now.

1. Ben Kohles (1.04)
2. Akshay Bhatia (0.91)
3. Lee Hodges (0.74)
4. Victor Pereze (0.66)
5. Haotong Li (0.66)

Birdie or better percentage over the last 50 rounds

Beyond the ball striking, the scoring at the 3M Open has consistently been low. The lowest winning score was in 2021 at 15 under, but every other score has been 17 under or lower. You have to make birdies to win in the Twin Cities. 

1. Jake Knapp (25.4%)
2. Keith Mitchell (24.9%)
3. Garrick Higgo (24.8%)
4. Michael Thorbjornsen (24.7%)
5. Luke Clanton (24.6%)

Strokes-gained putting (Bentgrass) over the last 36 rounds

All that ball striking will obviously go by the wayside if players aren’t able to tackle some relatively benign Bentgrass greens this week—or, you know, someone could just go nuclear on the greens. So we’re weighing the putting this week in a birdie-fest a bit more heavily than I would in most weeks. 

1. Pierceson Coody (1.04)
2. Vince Whaley (0.97)
3. Taylor Montgomery (0.91)
4. Haotong Li (0.80)
5. Frankie Capan III (0.76)

3M Open Model Rankings for TPC Twin Cities

For the model this week, we’re leaning heavily on driving, ball-striking and scoring to find the best players. We’re starting with SG: off-the-tee in the last 24 rounds (20%) and SG: approach (20%) with Birdie or Better Percentage over the last 50 rounds not far behind (15%). We get into a bit more of the nuance with SG: putting (bentgrass) over the last 36 rounds (12.5%), Good Drive Percentage in the last 36 rounds (12.5%), Par 5 Scoring Average in the last 36 rounds (10%) and SG: Total at TPC Twin Cities, Detroit Golf Club, TPC Deere Run, TPC Summerlin and PGA National from the last 36 rounds (10%) to round out the model. Here’s who comes out on top when you bring all of that into the equation. 

1. Michael Thorbjornsen
2. Rico Hoey
3. Sam Burns
4. Vince Whaley
5. Cameron Champ
6. Chris Gotterup
7. Emiliano Grillo
8. Kurt Kitayama
9. Luke Clanton
10. Max Greyserman

2025 3M Open Picks

Michael Thorbjornsen (+3500, FanDuel)

No. 1 in the model and our first bullet we’re firing this week at the 3M Open. Thorbjornsen, to not put too fine a point on it, fits the bill in so many ways this week. Just narratively alone, a place where we’ve seen some younger players get a breakthrough win makes sense for the ridiculously talented youngster who is still looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour. 

Beyond that, though, Thorbjornsen is trending after going T4, T21 and T14 in his last three starts, all in comparable fields. Furthermore, he shows up twice in the Top 5 among our key stats, ranking second in SG: off-the-tee in the last 24 rounds and fourth in Birdie or Better Percentage over the last 50 rounds. But he’s also Top 40 in SG: approach, 14th in SG: Total on comp courses, second in Good Drive Percentage, and sixth in Par 5 scoring average. 

Thorbjornsen has been a negative putter in his young career, but has been better in his limited experience on Bentgrass than any other surface. This feels like the perfect time for him to finally emerge as a winner on the PGA Tour. 

Jake Knapp (+4000, DraftKings)

A place where we want a bomber who can score birdies in bunches? Allow me to dial up Jake Knapp. He’s not in the Top 10 for the model, but he does come in at a solid 14th. But he simply feels due to make some more noise with the way he’s been heating up after two missed cuts in May. 

In four starts since those missed cuts, Knapp has finished T27, T4, T21 and T22. However, I’m looking at the numbers since then. He’s gained at least 0.73 strokes or more off the tee in his last three starts, has gained putting in each of his last four starts and gained at least 0.63 strokes on approach in two of his last three starts. Ranking first in Birdie or Better Percentage, he clearly has the scoring ability to make some noise if he can continue the strides he’s been making in non-Scottish Open events on approach. 

Knapp is a powder keg who can go berserk at any moment. TPC Twin Cities is set up for him to do just that, and this time, unlike last year when he withdrew, he’s in position to take advantage of that. 

Rico Hoey (+6000, FanDuel)

I hate that I’m back on the Rico Hoey train, but he should stop enticing me if for no other reason than to save me from myself. The ball-striking profile is just too good for me to think that he’s not going to find one week with the putter where he gets hot. And in that case, he’s playing well enough to win elsewhere in his game. 

Hoey is fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 10th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds while ranking first in Good Drive Percentage (last 36 rounds) and 22nd or better in every other key metric from the model this week except for the putting, which we knew. To put into perspective how good his ball striking has been, he lost 1.23 strokes per round at the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago and still finished tied for 11th. Even while having a weirdly average driving week at the ISCO, he finished T34 while losing 0.75 strokes per round putting. 

TPC Twin Cities sets up for what Hoey does extremely well and he could be incontention with just a field-average putting week. At 60-1, that’s too much value when considering the variance of putting, even if Hoey has been consistently bad in that department. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. ​​If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2025 3M Open Betting Models, Picks: Bomber’s Paradise at TPC Twin Cities.