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The Latest Breaking News from Torsten Sløk

Global stocks shake off reports of collapse in U.S. import trade

Apollo published a slide deck arguing that the reduction in imports would be enough to trigger a recession in the U.S. starting in the summer.

US tariff war hurting trade with China; M&S cyber-attack crisis continues; FTSE 100 rises for 11th day running – as it happened

US tariff war hurting trade with China; M&S cyber-attack crisis continues; FTSE 100 rises for 11th day running – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

The Guardian - UK

The U.S.-China trade war is about to pummel America’s small businesses, Apollo economist says

The U.S.-China trade war is about to pummel America’s small businesses, Apollo economist says

Shipping between the world’s two largest economies has nose-dived since mid-April.

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US Recession Looms as Top Economists Warn of Tariff-Driven Slump

Leading economists predict a US recession in 2025, driven by Trump's tariffs and weakening economic indicators

International Business Times UK

Jamie Dimon argues JPMorgan can help fix bond market chaos

The Treasury market helps the global economy go-round, and Wall Street is watching closely for signs the Fed may need to intervene.

Inside the bond market’s $800 billion ‘murder mystery’

One of Trump’s head economists said the spike in yields added “urgency” to the decision to pause the president’s reciprocal tariffs.

Bessent denies bond selloff made Trump back down on tariffs

Hedge funds typically profit handsomely from the $1 trillion “basis trade,” but the Federal Reserve could be forced to step in as yields surge.

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Why this ‘basis trade’ moment is so dangerous

Why this ‘basis trade’ moment is so dangerous

Also: The fact prices in the bond market are in decline at the same time as the stock market suggests there may be a liquidity crisis in the financial sector happening at the same time as the trade tariff crisis.

There's now a 40% chance the Fed will pivot back to hiking rates again next year, top economist says

There's now a 40% chance the Fed will pivot back to hiking rates again next year, top economist says

"For investors, it is starting to look similar to 2022—too high inflation, rising interest rates, and falling stock prices."

Fed rate cuts were supposed to help ease U.S. debt costs, but it's not looking good so far

Fed rate cuts were supposed to help ease U.S. debt costs, but it's not looking good so far

Last fiscal year, the interest expense on U.S. debt was $950 billion, up 35% from the prior due mostly to higher rates.

U.S. debt is so massive, interest costs alone are now $3 billion a day

U.S. debt is so massive, interest costs alone are now $3 billion a day

“If the Fed cuts interest rates by 1%-point and the entire yield curve declines by 1%-point, then daily interest expenses will decline from $3 billion per day to $2.5 billion per day.”

The Magnificent 7 stocks may soon yield to the 'Other 493'

The Magnificent 7 stocks may soon yield to the 'Other 493'

"Growth is broadening out and so should the market."

Apollo's chief economist calls the S&P 500 'vulnerable' as it hovers just below all time high of 5,523

Apollo's chief economist calls the S&P 500 'vulnerable' as it hovers just below all time high of 5,523

"The market is record bullish on future earnings for the top 10 companies in the index."

A divergence in the stock market is now the biggest it's ever been, signaling more vulnerability ahead, economist says

A divergence in the stock market is now the biggest it's ever been, signaling more vulnerability ahead, economist says

The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 account for 35% of the index's market value but only 23% of its earnings, according to Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Sløk.

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Nvidia stock accounts for more than a third of the S&P 500's gains this year—and it's a big risk for investors, top economist says

"The bottom line is that the extreme concentration of returns in the S&P 500 makes investors more vulnerable to single headlines impacting the one stock driving index returns."

Jerome Powell's Federal Reserve is stuck in a self-defeating paradox that makes cutting rates more difficult, economist warns

"You can call this the Fed Cut Reflexivity Paradox: The more the Fed insists that the next move in interest rates is a cut, the more financial conditions will ease, making it more difficult for the Fed to cut."

As 'AI Bubble' Chatter Grows, Is Nvidia Stock Overvalued?

As Nvidia's market cap rises over $2 trillion, some market-watchers believe the breakout AI chip stock is overvalued, while others ridicule the entire AI story as a bubble. Here's how Nvidia's valuation looks after the rally.

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