Grass seeds were sown months ago, when groundskeepers began preparing the surface of the courts. Wimbledon seeds were sown just a few days ago, as players settled into the ranking slots.
What does this mean? Players’ history at Wimbledon and aptitude for grass-court tennis don’t count for much these days. Taking past grass performance out of the equation to presage future success—as has been the case post-COVID-19—augurs more upsets. It means that Novak Djokovic’s seven Wimbledon titles (and over 100 match wins) don’t count for much. Alexander Zverev, winner of the previous major, will be the No. 2 seed despite the inconvenient fact that his best Wimbledon showing is a fourth-round cameo.
Then again, coming off a major in which a first-time winner was crowned and only two top-10 players reached the fourth round, the seeds-as-predators premise was already under fire. Is this the event in which the unseeded proletariat rises up again? With all manner of run-up success, is this the event where an American ends Andy Roddick’s unwanted run as the last Yank to win a major? Is Jannik Sinner back? We shall see.
The top 16
1. Jannik Sinner
Sinner returns to defend the only major title he currently holds. He has nearly double the ranking points of the No. 2 seed, but after the fiasco in France, there are real questions about whether the conditions pose a bigger threat than any of the 127 other players in the field. Entering Wimbledon with no prior match play on grass, Sinner has been out of action since early June, and the fear of heat is real. We say he defends his title (clad in ice vests and sunburn), but the plot has thickened.
(Carlos Alcaraz: Pause here to mourn the absence of the two-time champion.)
2. Alexander Zverev
The breakthrough achieved and burden lifted, Zverev won his first major in Paris. He’ll try to build on it at an event where he’s never been beyond the fourth round.
3. Félix Auger-Aliassime
Like Spirit Halloween, Auger-Aliassime emerges in the fall and has a hard time remaining prominent in the other seasons. To his credit, he played himself into Week 2 at Roland Garros. And his game, at least in theory, should translate to grass, despite losing five of his past six matches at Wimbledon.
4. Ben Shelton
Shelton is with a new management agency, and we’re holding onto our stock here, especially now that Shelton can reset after the clay season. Yes, he could use extra time to set up his leftie shots, but Shelton has already won a title on grass (Stuttgart). His combination of power and athleticism and his quarterfinal run at Wimbledon last year inspire optimism.
5. Alex de Minaur
He is coming off a disappointing Roland Garros, where he spoke openly about a lack of spark, a repeat of 2025, when he expressed similar mid-season malaise. The good news: He will sleep in his own bed and is familiar with the courts and the country. Maybe this is the power surge he needs.
6. Taylor Fritz
Fritz has turned into a bit of a riddle, no pun intended. He has zero titles in 2026, but has some spots of fine tennis, including his run to the Halle final. He deserves credit for playing through injury and doing so without complaint, but he was clearly a compromised player this spring. Fritz has acquitted himself well at Wimbledon, including a run to the semifinals last year. One wishes his health keeps pace with his ambition.
7. Novak Djokovic
Djokovic is still raging against the dying of the light. At 39, the seven-time champion returns to Wimbledon for what is realistically his last best chance of winning another major title. He didn’t advance past Week 1 in Paris, but a five-set loss to João Fonseca, an ascending star (with little match play coming in), hardly screams “time to retire.” There are many variables here, but this could be interesting.
8. Daniil Medvedev
Who knows what Medvedev will bring, especially on such a mercurial surface. He’s been to two Wimbledon semifinals in the past three years, and he’s also lost in the first round at four of the past five majors.
9. Flavio Cobolli
He’s coming off a run to the Roland Garros final and is returning to what was his best major showing (quarterfinals in 2025). Cobolli is such a versatile, flashy shotmaker and top-tier athlete. As he matures as a game manager, his results will only get better.
10. Alexander Bublik
Last year, he came into Wimbledon with considerable hype and didn’t get out of the first round. This year, the expectations are lower, and if past performances are any indication of future success, he’ll go on to win the tournament. That’s an exaggeration, but his serve, touch and wingspan all ought to serve him well on grass.
11. Casper Ruud
The faster the court, the less you like Rudd’s chances. His career Wimbledon record is 3–5.
12. Andrey Rublev
Rublev is only 28—as hard as that is to believe—but his results have really leveled off. He has reached the fourth round—and the fourth round only—at four of the past five majors.
13. Jiří Lehečka
He’s due for a strong event after a first-round defeat at Roland Garros. His game—those flat strokes in particular—ought to be well-suited for grass, but he did little in the tuneups.
14. Luciano Darderi
There are not a lot of data points—this is only his third Wimbledon main draw—but Darderi is always dangerous.
15. Jakub Menšík
He’s still only 20 and is still figuring out grass, but he crushes the ball, moves better than you’d think, and has improved his fitness. One tuneup match (a loss to the ageless Adrian Mannarino) isn’t ideal prep. Still, he’s a serious sleeper, and we like him rolling deep.
16. Learner Tien
Tien sneaks into the top-16 seed slot, meaning he’s guaranteed not to face a higher-ranked opponent until the fourth round. This is only his second Wimbledon, but he’s one to watch.
Seeds 17–32
17. Frances Tiafoe
Coming off winning the title in Halle—arguably the biggest of his career—he’s back in the top 20 and back in Wimbledon (outsider) contender territory.
18. Francisco Cerúndolo
The summer of Cerúndolo rolls on. The Queen’s Club winner can play on the grass—and, dang, that forehand …
20. Arthur Fils
It’s been over a year since he last played in a major. If he’s healthy, he’s a potential threat.
23. Rafael Jódar
After a smashing clay season, let’s see how he fares in his first Wimbledon.
24. João Fonseca
“Official estimates place the Brazilian-born population in the U.K. at around 120,000 to 220,000, with over half residing in London.” Fonseca has lingering health concerns, but has now hardened into one to watch at every major he enters.
26. Cameron Norrie
The former semifinalist gets bonus points as the lone player who bikes to his matches. (Wear a helmet!)
28. Brandon Nakashima
A bit of a forgotten American, but Nakashima seldom takes bad losses.
Dark horse corridor
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