Professor Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, has confirmed what many feared about the coronavirus: it will make social distancing necessary until the end of this year at least .
He said he thought the UK had reached the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic but stressed that in order to avoid a second peak there would need to be social distancing for "really quite a long period of time".
Social distancing does not directly tackle the coronavirus but it keeps it away from the public and buys time to develop other methods of tackling the virus.
Slowing down the transmission rate is a very important part of flattening the curve and ensuring the NHS isn't overwhelmed at any one point of the pandemic and is thus necessary to save lives, but it is not something which will end the crisis itself.
Are we really going to be spending the rest of the year following social distancing and could it be even longer?
The Claim
It is highly unlikely that normal life is going to resume any time soon, the coronavirus needs a patient approach and social distancing is not just something the public needs to do for a few weeks. The pandemic is not going to be something which blows over in a matter of weeks.
Professor Whitty said the time had come to be "realistic" with the public over just how long the UK is going to have to live with social distancing in some form.
He said Brits would need to put up with Covid-19 for "the foreseeable future" and it was up to government ministers to decide the "optimal combination" of social distancing measures required to control the pandemic until a vaccine becomes available.
Being at the peak of the virus or passing it doesn't mean it'll be time to relax the lockdown and let everyone go about their business as usual, the virus is still out there and allowing people to gather once again will only lead to it being spread around once again.
First secretary Dominic Raab said there was a "glimmer" of light at the end of the tunnel but stressed the government wouldn't be relaxing restrictions until ministers were sure there would not be a second spike of the virus.
For now it might be best to assume that social distancing in some form or another is going to be in place for the rest of the year at least and anything less than that should be treated as a pleasant surprise.
The Counter Claim
If it isn't going to be safe to end social distancing until a vaccine or treatment is available then it's good news that there are many efforts to develop just that .
Human trials of a vaccine against Covid-19 have started in the UK , with Oxford University scientists saying the treatment they are developing has an 80 per cent chance of success.
If the vaccine ends up being successful then it will still require a long wait before it can be rolled out on a large scale, with mass production for doses of a new vaccine "not achievable within six months and may not be achievable within a year".
Production on this particular vaccine has started before the trials have been completed in the hopes that it works and jumping the gun now will mean the vaccine gets made sooner and thus reaches people quicker.
The current target is to have a million doses of the vaccine ready to be shipped out by September.
It probably won't mean we're all queuing up for vaccines before the end of the year but it could help provide some immunity to those who are most vulnerable to the coronavirus and save them from having to stay in their homes at all times for the remainder of 2020.
Social distancing buys time for experts to develop vaccines and treatments which will bring an end to the coronavirus, they appear to be making good use of the time bought thus far.
The Facts
Beyond buying time to develop a vaccine, the aim of social distancing is to reduce the rate of transmission of the virus to less than one person per infected individual.
In essence someone with the coronavirus would infect fewer than one other person on average which would bring the infection rate down over time and result in fewer people having the virus.
With fewer ongoing cases there are fewer opportunities for the virus to kill someone and there will be fewer people infected with the virus who might then spread it around to others.
There are more than 70 vaccines being developed around the world to deal with the coronavirus though most are not at a point where they are ready for human trials.
Professor Whitty also warned that long runs of social distancing would inevitably lead to higher deaths from long term health issues as fewer people seek treatment and parts of the NHS have been "reoriented towards Covid" .
