KATE Forbes announcing she will step down next year has sent shockwaves around Scotland's political establishment.
Afterall, the Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch MSP was seen by many as a first minister in waiting.
So, when she announced in a letter yesterday that she will not be running in the 2026 Holyrood election – citing her wish to spend more time with her young family – it left many asking what it meant, particularly for the SNP.
It is no doubt a huge loss. Forbes is among the most high-profile [[SNP]] MSPs standing down ahead of next year’s Holyrood election.
As Deputy First Minister, she is John Swinney’s right-hand woman. And she was so close to securing the top job in 2023 after Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation, ultimately losing out to Humza Yousaf in what was widely seen as a battle between the party’s left and right.
Given Forbes’s socially conservative beliefs and her more conservative economic policies – her support for freeports, for example – some have suggested the SNP will now move to the left.
It’s certainly a line The Times have gone down, in both an editorial and an article in which they quote an unnamed source and Michelle Thomson, an MSP and Forbes ally who is also on the right of the party and standing down next year.
“Some people may perceive that Kate Forbes standing down will mean the [[SNP]] will become more left wing,” Thomson told the newspaper.
“Some people may perceive that Kate Forbes standing down will mean the SNP will become more left wing,” she said.
“The SNP has been at its strongest when a broad church. Its focus on social justice is a strength but that has also needed an equal focus on attracting investment and creating the circumstances where social justice can be paid for.
“My concern is that the loss of Kate Forbes will diminish the importance of economic growth and investment.”
Will the SNP become more left-wing with the departure of Kate Forbes?
“No is the short answer,” says pollster Mark McGeoghegan.
“What I would say is that much more important for the future of the SNP and their future political direction and political strategy is the overall composition of the MSP group after next May.”
The academic from Glasgow University added: “If you take the MSP group right now in isolation and take Kate Forbes out of it. Yeah, overall, if you were to average their political views, the group is going to be a bit more left-wing economically and a bit more socially progressive.”
McGeoghegan highlighted, however, that there are lots of other MSPs standing down next year – many of whom are left-leaning and progressive.
“[[Nicola Sturgeon]] is stepping down, Humza Yousaf is stepping down, and there are lots of others who are stepping down who are on the more progressive urban wing of the party which I think probably more than balances out [[Kate Forbes]] stepping down,” he said.
“It’s very uncertain what the MSP group is going to look like after next May and it's the overall composition of the group that's going to matter in terms of the future direction of the party at Holyrood, the future direction of the leadership. If they're in a position to form a government, what factions John Swinney has to manage.”
McGeoghegan added: “That's going to be much more important than Kate Forbes stepping down. I acknowledge she is the most high-profile person on the party's centre right – if we want to put it that way – but she's not the only one, and she’s not a kind of one-person right-leaning input into the SNP strategy.”
Leading pollster John Curtice said that it is “hard to say” what impact it will have at this stage.
He also added that while Forbes is “relatively business friendly” and “naturally speaks to that world”, he wouldn't describe her as particularly right-leaning anyway.
“I mean, she's not your standard Tory on economics in the sense that – along with the message about the need to achieve economic growth – there's usually a pretty strong message about the importance of improving equality in Scotland,” he said.
“It's not that clear to me that she is as far away from the majority of her colleagues on economic issues as she is on some of the cultural issues.”
Looking forward to Holyrood 2026, when asked whether a move to the left could even be a desirable move electorally for the SNP, Curtice said it is “clear” what the SNP have to do.
“Their target market is not defined by people's ideological position on the left-right spectrum. It is defined by those folk, which is up to 40% of the current Yes support, who say they would still vote for independence but also saying they're not going to vote for the SNP – that is their target group,” he said.
“It's never going to be in the SNP's interest to be too strongly to the left. Because, at the end of the day, the whole idea that Scotland is some left-wing country – there’s a wee bit of truth to this, but don’t exaggerate it.
“What distinguishes Scotland, what distinguishes people who are willing to vote for the SNP is the constitutional question.”
