WASHINGTON _ Texas GOP Rep. Will Hurd's decision to retire was a gut punch for Republicans, who consider Hurd one of their strongest incumbents in one of the most competitive districts in the country. His exit means Republicans will have to work even harder to hold onto his seat as Democrats are going on offense in the Lone Star State.
Hurd is the third Texas Republican in a week to announce his retirement, and the second to do so in a contested district. Texas GOP Rep. Pete Olson is retiring in the 22nd District, which Democrats are also targeting in 2020. Rep. Mike Conaway also announced his retirement, although his seat is not considered competitive.
"This has been a fairly shocking seven or 10 days in Texas," said GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak, who is based in Austin.
Some Republicans noted Friday that Hurd was always expected to have a close race ahead of him. He won reelection in 2018 by less than 1,000 votes and Hillary Clinton won the district by 3 points in 2016.
But Hurd had already shown he could win tough races. Without him on the ballot, the race appears to be more favorable to Democrats. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales changed the 23rd District's race rating from a "Toss-up" to "Lean Democratic."
Hurd's exit could have an even longer term impact with a new census and a new round of redistricting after 2020. Mackowiak speculated that if a Democrat wins the 23rd District, the district could be redrawn to be even more favorable to a Democrat than its current configuration.
But in the short term, Hurd's and Olson's retirements make their seats tougher to hold in 2020.
"Two weeks ago we knew we were going to have eight contested congressional seats in Texas," said Mackowiak. "That map hasn't changed ... It just raises the degree of difficulty in two of the eight districts."
Incumbents typically have advantages in name recognition and fundraising that newcomers do not, even in districts that favor members of their parties. And there could be more retirements to come. So far, seven Republicans and two Democrats have announced they are retiring, which is below the average 23 retirements in recent election cycles.
Some Republicans are also watching Texas GOP Reps. Michael McCaul, Kenny Marchant and John Carter, all of whom won reelection by less than 5 points in 2018, as potential retirements. Retirement speculation has also swirled around Texas GOP Rep. Mac Thornberry, who is term limited as the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, although his seat is solidly Republican.
Sources close to McCaul and Marchant said they are running for reelection. A Carter spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The source close to McCaul noted that he had the strongest fundraising quarters for an off-year in his career. In the most recent fundraising quarter, McCaul raised nearly $701,000, the second highest amount of the lawmakers targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. McCaul has also shaken up his campaign team, has a field organization up and running and has been running digital ads.
After Hurd's retirement announcement, Democrats called out McCaul, Marchant and Carter in a Friday press release with the subject line, "Texodus." The committee has the three GOP lawmakers on its own retirement watch list and said in the release that the Republicans "are sweating bullets this morning, but it's not from the Texas heat."
After flipping two GOP-held House seats in 2018, Democrats are bullish about their opportunities in the Lone Star State in 2020. The DCCC is targeting six GOP-held seats and already has a headquarters and staff in the state, more than 15 months before Election Day.
In 2018 the committee set up a headquarters in California, and Democratic candidates went on to flip seven GOP seats that Clinton had won in 2016. But the Texas seats could be tougher targets, given that Trump carried each of the six districts, and will be on the ballot himself in 2020.
Democrats also saw the close 2018 Senate results as a sign that Texas is in play. Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke, who came within 3 points of defeating GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, won three of the districts the DCCC is targeting and narrowly lost the other three. Republicans say the enthusiasm around O'Rourke won't be easy to replicate, and they expect better GOP turnout in 2020 because of the presidential race.
Democrats see the increasingly diverse suburban districts as moving in their direction, although Republicans caution that more socially conservative Hispanic voters are not solidly Democratic.
All six of the DCCC targets experienced an increase in Hispanic population between 2013 and 2017, and five of them saw growth by more than 10 percent, according to the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. McCaul's district had a 20% increase.
"Texas is the biggest battleground state," Texas Democratic Party Executive Director Manny Garcia said in a statement. "Republicans know it, and Texas Democrats damn sure know it."
