Monday’s debate was supposed to be a turning point for Rishi Sunak, a moment billed as his chance to change his fortunes after polling suggested he was trailing Liz Truss in the Tory leadership contest.
Her awkwardness, her less fluent grasp of detail could be shown up in the head-to-head – similarly to how poorly she performed in the last two debates. “The more they see of her, the more they like him,” was the refrain from Sunak supporters.
But snap polls taken after Monday’s debate suggest Sunak can no longer rely on his rival’s potential stumble.
There are now louder whispers among supporters of the former chancellor that the strategy of his campaign has been poorly judged and allowed his rival to paint him as a timid socialist bean counter.
Sunak launched his campaign by talking of “difficult choices” and the looming economic crisis. That is the mould that he is now set in, which his supporters fear he could later regret. Over and again in the leadership debates, he interrupted Truss to point out the dire situation the country was facing and the risks of further borrowing and escalating inflation.
His team would say that someone had to bring the debate back down to planet Earth – when Truss had so far tied herself to £38bn of spending commitments each year. But it has led to some backers shaking their heads at his approach.
One veteran Tory strategist, aligned with Sunak, said it was their campaign strategy that was fuelling Truss’s rise. “I don’t like the campaign message: ‘I’m sensible and keep tax hikes etc,’” the strategist said. “It’s very bad framing.”
Another MP said the campaign badly needed to focus on Sunak’s values and prime ministerial appeal – as well as highlight how he was prepared to be bold.
“The furlough scheme was bold and it saved the economy – if Rishi was prepared to own that he could actually paint himself as the radical chancellor prepared to think creatively about the crisis ahead and growing the economy,” one MP said. Another said: “I think we need to get away from the idea that he’s just there to prosecute her ideas.”
The Conservative columnist Iain Martin tweeted that he believed Sunak’s team had “made a genuinely catastrophic error on campaign strategy, misreading the situation … Wouldn’t he have been far better aiming high? To be ultra-prime ministerial, endless contrasts with Johnson, emphasise his ability to listen and create order, which is going to be needed considering what’s coming this winter.”
Polling of Conservative party members by YouGov now paints a very difficult picture for Sunak – putting Truss ahead in terms of debate performance and on a raft of different values, including being in touch with ordinary people, more trustworthy and more likable, though Sunak edged ahead on being more prime ministerial.
It is not over for Sunak – but the former chancellor may feel he has no choice but to try to change the terms of the debate. Polling of the race that shows Truss so far ahead means the foreign secretary may now become complacent.
In truth, party members are difficult to poll representatively and polling at the 2019 leadership race was out by a substantial margin (though Johnson still won comfortably). But MPs and other Sunak-backing Tories are likely to ramp up calls for a change of approach if he is to have any chance of closing that gap.
