Sir Keir Starmer is yet to recover from the bruising U-turn on his botched benefit cuts, but he is already facing a fresh rebellion.
A similar coalition of MPs and campaign groups, including many of the same charities that opposed reforms to welfare, are warning the prime minister not to cut education plans for children and young people with special educational needs and disabilities (Send).
The PM was badly weakened by the chaos around his planned welfare bill, and backbenchers now appear to know they can force their leader’s hand if they apply enough pressure.
But Sir Keir, and his chancellor Rachel Reeves, will be acutely aware of the pressure on the public finances and can scarcely afford another multi-billion pound policy change.
The Independent looks at why the government is under pressure over Send, and what it is likely to do about it.
What are education, health and care plans (ECHPs)?
An education, health and care plan (EHCP) outlines the tailored support needed by those aged 25 and under to meet their social care needs.
It is designed to help those with disabilities get what they need to access learning and achieve their potential.
The documents are legally binding, based on assessments by professionals and set out the support young people individually need.
Are the ECHPs at risk?
The campaign group Save Our Children’s Rights has warned that the government is planning to weaken or remove the right to an ECHP, as well as other rights including the right to attend a suitable school and receive support such as speech and language therapy.
It said the government plans are to save money, with support for children with learning difficulties or disabilities currently costing £12bn a year.
The Department for Education has said there are “no plans to remove funding or support from children, families and schools”.
“It would be totally inaccurate to suggest that children, families or schools might experience any loss of funding or support,” a spokesman said.
Why would the government cut EHCPs?
The government previously turned to support for the disabled when it sought to slash £5bn from the welfare bill through cuts to the personal independence payment (Pip), the main disability benefit.
The argument was that the bill was rising unsustainably, and the National Audit Office (NAO) has raised a similar warning about ECHPs.
The number of EHCPs soared by 150 per cent to 576,000 between 2015 and 2024, with the NAO estimating it could top 1 million by 2033.
What have campaigners said?
A letter to The Guardian on Monday signed by dozens of special needs groups said “every sign from the government suggests the right to an ECHP is to be removed from children attending mainstream schools”.
“Whatever the Send system’s problems, the answer is not to remove the rights of children and young people,” the letter said.
It said removing ECHPs would not make young people’s needs magically vanish, but would increase applications for already overcrowded special schools or force children out of school altogether.
What have MPs said?
One Labour MP preparing to rebel told The Independent that backbenchers are gearing up for a similar fight over ECHPs to the battle they fought over cuts to Pip.
“They have built strong relationships with Send campaigners, if they are now being told this is a betrayal, they will push back against any cuts,” the MP warned.
Another was quoted in The Times as saying: “If they thought taking money away from disabled adults was bad, watch what happens when they try the same with disabled kids.”
When will the changes become clear?
The government is expected to publish a white paper detailing its reforms to Send education in the autumn.
It means that ministers have a chance to ensure they get any reforms right, and get backbenchers onside, in order to stave off any potential rebellion over the changes.
But the long delay also means disability campaigners will have all summer to get in the ears of MPs, and that rebellious Labour parliamentarians will have plenty of time to plan a revolt.
Ultimately, the reforms will represent a test of how well Sir Keir has listened and learned from previous handling of politically sensitive changes that make Labour MPs uneasy.
Any changes will stand or fall on whether he has done the necessary outreach to MPs from across the party and the relevant campaign groups lobbying them.
If not, he faces returning from the summer holiday to exactly the same problems he left behind.
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