The National Rally initially backed François Bayrou as prime minister and helped him survive a vote of no confidence earlier this year. But its MPs withdrew their support in Monday's vote, ensuring his downfall. RFI looks at what changed and why RN's leaders are now pushing for early elections.
National Rally (RN) – France's largest opposition party, with 123 seats in parliament – threw its weight behind Bayrou when he was nominated in December 2024, following the ousting of Michel Barnier.
In January, its decision to abstain in a vote of no confidence brought against Bayrou by left-wing parties allowed him to fight another day.
But after nine months of entente cordiale, RN leaders Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have thrown Bayrou under the bus.
“We don’t have confidence [in Bayrou]," Le Pen told reporters following a meeting with the prime minister last Tuesday, and announced that all RN MPs would vote against him in Monday's confidence vote.
Defeated by 364 votes to 194, the veteran centrist politician had no choice but to tender his resignation, which he did on Tuesday.
Former defence minister Sébastien Lecornu has been named as his successor.
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Disagreements over budget
Behind this change of heart is disagreement over how to rein in France's ballooning deficit – almost €169 billion, or 5.8 percent of its GDP.
Bayrou’s proposed budget for 2026 aimed to save €44 billion, largely through cuts to public spending and slashing two public holidays.
The RN, whose support base is largely working class, says cutting back on public holidays is one example of France's elites making workers pay.
"The abolition of two public holidays,... is a direct attack on our history, our roots and working-class France," said party president Bardella on 15 July. "No RN MP will accept this measure, which is nothing short of provocation."
In August, Le Pen addressed an open letter to Bayrou laying out the party's proposed budget priorities, amounting to up to €100 billion in savings. These included capping contributions to the European Union, disinvesting in renewable energy, limiting welfare payments to migrants and massive cuts in state bureaucracy.
"We’ve always been ready to improve the proposals made when it came to supporting purchasing power, measures in favour of security or controlling our migratory flows," said party spokesperson Gaëtan Dussausaye.
"But when Marine Le Pen sent a letter telling Bayrou his plan was a bad one and that she was at his disposal, the prime minister ignored her. That’s not respectful," he told RFI.
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Growing unpopularity
The tide of public opinion too has turned against Bayrou. A recent poll put his satisfaction rate at 20 percent – an all-time low.
Anger is mounting, and one out of two people in France supports the "block everything" movement and its call to bring France to a standstill on Wednesday, 10 September, according to Matthieu Gallard of pollsters Ipsos France.
He cited social issues, the feeling that purchasing power is declining, issues of social protection and public services and anger over Bayrou’s plan to tackle the deficit as fuelling the growing discontent.
"There’s very strong anger against the outgoing prime minister and the president of the Republic," he told RFI.
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For political scientist Erwan Lecoeur, Le Pen was eager to distance herself and her party from an unpopular leader.
"She saw that her electorate was becoming very angry with the government and was no longer in line with the idea of supporting François Bayrou," he said. "It was dangerous and out of the question to appear too close to Bayrou and to Macronism. She had to regain her independence."
Lecoeur, an expert on the far right, also argues that Le Pen's support for Bayrou waned after it became obvious she wouldn't receive any leniency over her five-year ban from running for public office, handed down in March for misuse of EU funds, and which she will appeal at the beginning of next year.
"Marine Le Pen wanted to negotiate her support for François Bayrou in exchange for greater, I would say, indulgence on the part of judges and the political system for the next presidential election," he says. "But she saw over the last few months that there was nothing to be done on that front."
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Back to the ballot box
The hard-left France Unbowed party is calling for the president to resign, while the Socialists want Macron to choose a left-leaning prime minister. The RN, however, is pushing for Macron to dissolve parliament and call new elections.
"We call for an ultra-quick dissolution [of parliament], so that the new majority that will come out of these elections can build a budget,” said Le Pen ahead of Monday's vote.
On Tuesday, Macron ignored them all and chose his close ally, former defence minister Lecornu, as prime minister.
Le Pen said the president was firing "the final cartridge of Macronism, from his bunker along with his little circle of loyalists".
The president needs to get a budget drafted before 7 October and reportedly acted quickly to avoid further instability ahead of the 10 September day of action and trade union calls for strike action on 18 September.
Pollster Gallard said a "clear majority" of the public wanted the president to dissolve the government, with the latest survey showing 61 percent in favour.
"While they didn’t understand last year’s dissolution – because even if there wasn’t a solid majority in the National Assembly, there was a feeling that government could work and hold – the situation is obviously very different now," he noted.
However, despite RN voters hoping that snap polls could usher in a far-right government, he doubts any such elections would give the party an outright majority.
"A new dissolution would probably not radically change the political balance in the National Assembly. We would still have three blocs, none of which would be close to obtaining an absolute majority."
Lecoeur, however, is more sceptical. "In many constituencies, more than 50, the RN came within a few points of 50 percent in the second round [of the 2024 legislatives]. The RN is hoping – and they have good reason to hope – that they will do better this time."
Legal battle
Le Pen also has personal reasons to push for early elections.
Her bar on standing for public office means she's unable to run in the 2027 presidential or any other elections.
She has appealed the verdict, claiming it was "politically motivated" and on Monday a Paris court confirmed the appeal would take place from 13 January to 12 February, 2026.
Paris court sets January appeal date that could decide Le Pen’s political future
Dussausaye says Le Pen, as an MP for the Pas de Calais region, would be a candidate in such snap elections.
"Of course she will be a candidate because she is innocent. She will submit her candidacy to the Pas de Calais prefecture and if it's not accepted we will use all the administrative and legal remedies available."
These include appealing to the constitutional council – which Lecoeur argues would be a way of rallying her camp against France’s institutions and fuelling the idea that she has been wronged.
"Her objective is to wage a political battle within the political-legal arena," he explains. "There had to be a campaign in which she could run in order to force the courts to take a position on whether or not she has the right to run.
"The judges will prevent her from standing. It will show once again how 'politically unfair' it is for Marine Le Pen not to be able to stand for election. It's important to show this in order to influence public opinion and politicians before her appeal trial."
