The majority of coal-fired power is not being phased out quickly enough to meet climate goals and avoid catastrophic global heating, despite new pledges made at Cop26.
While coal is on its way out, some of the largest coal-dependent economies might be delaying for too long, according to a new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
“Current pledges and targets absolutely are not enough to ensure that coal power is phased out fast enough to avoid the worst of global warming,” said lead author of the report, Lauri Myllyvirta.
Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel and the International Energy Agency has made clear that if it is not rapidly retired the world has no hope of staying within 1.5C of global heating.
While major coal-dependent nations pledged for the first time at the UN climate summit in Glasgow to phase down coal-fired power generation, there is still a long way to go, says Flora Champenois, a research analyst at Global Energy Monitor.
“The price of renewables has dropped dramatically in the last decade, so the case is now clearer than ever that uneconomical, dirty energy needs to go. At the same time, we’ve seen that it’s slow and difficult to change the status quo, no matter how compelling the economics of coal power are.”
The data reveals how much responsibility higher income countries have when it comes to phasing out coal across the world.
Leo Roberts, research manager at E3G, said that in addition to shutting down their own coal fleets: “Rich countries need to make the finance available to support the transition away from coal in the global south.
He added that investors and taxpayers should be concerned about the profitability of new coal plants. If those projects went ahead, they could lose $150bn (£113bn) on stranded assets, according to a report by Carbon Tracker.
Despite falling behind on the schedule set out by the International Energy Agency, there are signs that key players are making headway in the transition. In India, “clean energy targets announced by the prime minister, Narendra Modi, mean that coal-fired power generation could peak well before 2030”, said Myllyvirta.
And while the United States is not on track for a 2030 phase out, according to Global Energy Monitor, a shifting tide of economic factors and political will might bring the country in line. Roberts pointed to how the increasing uncompetitiveness of coal is already driving coal power plants retirements nationwide.
Out of the three biggest coal-dependent economies, China’s status is surrounded by the most uncertainties. Though the country has pledged to stop building new coal plants abroad, it is still planning to increase domestic capacity. “Before China, with by far the world’s largest fleet of coal power plants, announces firm phase-out plans, we won’t be on track,” said Myllyvirta.
But despite uncertainty over China, experts say there is reason for optimism. The pace at which countries are abandoning coal has accelerated in recent years, and many new projects have already been cancelled.
“The pace at which the [global] outlook has changed”, according to Myllyvirta, “from only a handful of small countries having a phase-out commitment as recently as 2015, to having a quarter of the world’s coal fleet assigned a firm phase-out date. It’s extremely encouraging and shows this can be done.”
