Closing summary
… and on that note, it’s a wrap for today!
I will be back tomorrow morning to bring you the speeches of several key leaders, including the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio (10:36), Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the UK’s Keir Starmer, who are all set to take to the Munich Security Conference’s stage tomorrow.
Here is your summary of the first day:
The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, told Donald Trump that “in the era of great power rivalry, even the US will not be powerful enough to go alone” (14:21) in a wide-ranging speech rebuking some of the US criticism of Europe and calling for a new, reinvented transatlantic partnership (14:19, 14:24, 14:42) as he warned the old world order “no longer exists” (14:02).
Merz also disclosed he had held initial talks with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, over the possibility of joining France’s nuclear umbrella, as part of his broader call for Europe to develop a stronger self-standing security strategy (14:07, 14:15).
Macron later picked up that theme, revealing his talks with Merz and few other European leaders and trailing a further speech on this in the coming weeks (19:38, 19:58).
The French president also mounted a passionate, optimistic defence of Europe’s place in the world (19:18), dismissing US criticisms (19:18, 19:43, 20:20) and urging it to “reorganise our architecture of security” on the continent, including a long-term position on Russia (19:33).
Elsewhere,
Numerous European leaders reiterated their support for Ukraine and questioned Russia’s commitment to reaching a peace deal (11:01, 14:30, 16:15, 20:35).
The Danish and Greenlandic prime ministers held “constructive” talks with the US secretary of state Marco Rubio amid continued US interest in acquiring Greenland (19:14).
US congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California governor Gavin Newsom criticised Trump policies as the two Democratic presidential hopefuls in 2028 sought to outline an alternative US vision of transatlantic and foreign policies (16:58, 18:22).
And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy will have a chance to raise all these points directly with US secretary of state Rubio, as they are expected to meet in Munich tomorrow, Reuters reported.
Zelenskyy says he sees three elements that are needed to end the war: strong security guarantees, a reconstruction deal to help Ukraine after the war, and even more direct pressure on Russia.
He says Trump could even push for “total sanctions” on Russia, including on nuclear energy and even on Russians in the west.
He says:
“He can put [sanctions] on all their energy, on nuclear energy. He can give this message to Europeans. Europeans [did] a lot, but didn’t put … sanctions on nuclear energy of Russians on Rosatom, on people, on their relatives, on their children, [who] live in Europe, [who] live in the United States, [who] study in the universities of Europe, [who] have real estate in the United States … They have children, relatives everywhere.”
He says they should “go home” to Russia (erm, he may have also phrased it slightly more strongly) as they don’t respect the US or Europe.
Asked what he hopes to see this time next year, he says “I hope that we will have peace, that all our people will again [go] back to normal life and I hope that we will have some time for my children.”
But he jokes he’s not sure if his children would want the same on the last point.
And shortly after the Politico interview wraps up.
Updated
Zelenskyy also gets asked about his expectations about Rubio’s speech tomorrow.
He says:
“I don’t know. We will see, it’s up to him.”
Zelenskyy says Ukraine can hold elections if Trump agrees 2-3 months of ceasefire with Russia
Zelenskyy also gets asked about whether Ukraine can hold elections, amid reported US pressure on Kyiv.
He says he would be in principle happy to do it “as quick as possible,” but points out that the war needs to stop first.
If the US wants him to hold the election soon, the best way to do it is by ending the war as soon as possible.
He says he needs security guarantees to hold elections.
Pushed on this point, he declares that “if president Trump, and I think that he can [do it], … pushes Putin [into] ceasefire [that will last for] two, three months, we will do elections.”
In a somewhat cheeky comment, Zelenskyy also notes that at 48 he is much younger than Putin, 73.
He says the Russian leader “doesn’t have too much time,” before adding: “God bless not too much time.”
Zelenskyy also says that Trump wants to agree a peace deal “all at once,” as he “like things in one big package,” like he did with his “one, big, beautiful bill” – but says the sequence of getting things agreed is important here and needed to provide Ukraine with genuine reassurance.
Zelenskyy gets also asked about Russia’s territorial demands, and he pushes back on them as essentially giving in to Moscow’s ambitions to get Ukraine, bit by bit.
He says he keeps trying to explain that point to partners, including the US.
He also talks about the risk of agreeing to any sort of compromise to get a deal without sufficient security guarantees that could see the new arrangement to be violated by Russia again in further pursuit of Ukraine’s territory.
Updated
Zelenskyy says he thinks Russia doesn't want to end war, should face further pressure
There is now a break in the main programme, but Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy is using it to speak to Politico on the sidelines of the conference about the latest in talks about ending the war.
He says there are some suggestions from the US that Ukraine could compromise on some issues to end the war.
But he says:
“We made a lot of compromises. Putin and his friends, they are not in prison. This is the biggest compromise that the world made already.”
He says Ukraine “can’t forget” how many people were killed during the war, but he says Kyiv is ready to end it anytime – but Putin shows no genuine interest in doing that, so more pressure on Russia is needed.
Asked about Russia’s intentions, he says:
“I don’t think that they want to stop the war. I think that they can, … under pressure … That’s why, until there is no enough pressure, they play [games].”
Pushed further on what he makes of the fact that the US is pressuring Ukraine and Russia similarly, he says “there are some thoughts which I have to keep to myself.”
Updated
Macron's positive vision for Europe offers hope, but will not be to everyone's liking - snap analysis
in Munich
Macron has delivered what he said he would do and set out a positive, almost hopeful, view of what can be done achieved by a more integrated, confident European Union.
And there will be plenty of people excited by the vision he outlined.
His repeated swipes and pushbacks on the US administration’s clashes with Europe – on tariffs, Greenland (19:43), and social media regulation (19:50), and broader alleged failures on migration, regulation and free speech (19:18) – were well received by the Munich audience and will no doubt resonate beyond the room – just as his words when he talked about the need for Europe to be respected.
But some of his ideas are likely to be seen as pretty controversial: whether that’s on the extent of planning for or engagement (or ‘coexistence’) with Russia, on the new European nuclear sharing programme, or on (fairly extensive, by the sound of it) social media regulation he proposed, which critics would no doubt see as too invasive.
Finally, there is also a part of me that simply cannot ignore the fact that Macron continues to be deeply unpopular in France and is nearing the end of his term, which puts a question mark on just how much of that almost visionary talk can actually be realistically done.
Updated
Macron's Munich speech - in pictures
Macron also gets a question on Ukraine and on why he is not prepared to send troops into Ukraine before a peace deal is agreed with Russia.
He gives a pretty long and nuanced answer on this, once again stressing Europe’s long way to get to where it is now, with its strong financial backing for Kyiv, “no more dependent on the US financial support”.
He says he sees no evidence that Russia is serious about getting a peace deal now as it continues to bomb civilians and delay talks, while trying to secure various concessions from Ukraine.
He says Europe cannot send troops now because it would be blamed for escalating the tensions, making the situation even worse, and it’s response would be probably divided.
So, he says, the focus should be “to come to re-engage with the US, assessing … the fact that there is no more room for credible short-term negotiation, and putting additional sanctions” on Russia and actions against its shadow fleet.
“I perfectly understand and respect the fact that this view is not the ideal one for you, but this is, I think, a credible one, and, in the short run, the best possible scenario.”
And that ends the Q&A and his speech.
In the Q&A, Macron spells out the task he detailed in his speech, as he says Europeans will need “reorganise our architecture of security in Europe”.
He says “the past architecture of security was totally designed and framed during cold war times,” and doesn’t fit today’s challenges.
He says today’s focus is on Ukraine, but the leaders should look beyond that to plan what the future security arrangement should look like.
He also says a bit more on his thinking about the European nuclear programme, and says he will speak more about this idea “in the next few weeks.”
But he reveals he worked with Germany’s Merz and “with few European leaders” to spell it out and propose safeguards and mechanisms for how it could be governed.
Politico reported recently that Macron was working on a policy speech near Brest, which hosts the base of the French nuclear ballistic missile submarines.
Macron then turns into the issue of regulating social media platforms and fighting disinformation online, painting this as part of a broader effort to ensure integrity of European democratic processes.
He says:
“How is that the craziest and most harmful narratives can go unchecked in our digital space, where they would fall under the law if published in print?”
He pointedly praises the the bloc’s attempt to regulate this space, EU’s Digital Services Act – which regularly gets criticised by the US administration – as he says that “to say free speech means no regulation on our social media meaning free speech would mean I will give the mind, … the heart of my teenagers to algorithm of big guys I’m not totally sure I share the values of or Chinese algorithm without any control.”
He says that’d be “crazy” and mentions the French push to regulate social media.
“When you have free speech, you have respect, you have rules – and the limit of my freedom is the beginning of your freedom and respect is part of free speech,” he says.
He gets some applause here.
He then lists a number of specific policy asks on digital, including measures against bots, urging for “one single person with one account” approach, and more transparency on how algorithms work and on enforcement against platforms that don’t abide by European rules.
He ends by going back to the main theme of his speech, calling for “audacity” and “strong Europe.”
He says a reformed Europe would be “a good ally and partner for the US,” taking its “fair share of the burden,” and respected as it deserves to be.
“We did a lot, and we will do more, but we will follow this path, believe me,” he says.
Updated
Macron urges Europe to 'show unwavering commitment to defend interests' with swipes on the US
Macron continues his call to reassert Europe’s position globally, as he adds some swipes at the US trade and foreign policy towards Europe.
“If we want to be taken seriously on the European continent and beyond, we must show the world our unwavering commitment to defend our own interests. It starts, of course, with continuing to extend our support to Ukraine, but it could nicely follow with fanning off unjustified tariffs and politely declining unjustified claims on European territory.
This is what we did and this is what we will [continue to] do.”
He obviously appears to refer to the US threat of tariffs and Trump’s plans for Greenland.
Macron also talks about the need to work on shared defence and security projects, warning that both national solutions or move to favour national providers would risk “wasting our money and time,” and be “a huge mistake.”
He points to the importance of the SAFE mechanism in helping with Europe’s push to build its defence industries.
“This is European money, and it will be used for European solutions and European programmes,” he says.
He also picks up Merz’s earlier suggestion of a European nuclear arms programme, as he says “it’s very important the discussion we have with the UK, Germany, but open to a lot of other European players to have a new generation of long range missiles that will give Europe a new edge.”
Updated
in Munich
Not sure central and eastern European countries – be it Poland or the Baltics – will be particularly thrilled by this idea from Macron, or that it was announced seemingly without getting them on board first.
Updated
Macron calls for Europe's place at table for talks on future security arrangements with Russia
Macron argues that on Ukraine, Europe has delivered as its stepped up its support for the wartorn country and rallied a coalition of the willing to provide it with security guarantees.
He says that “if you take this past four years, Russia, after invading Ukraine, is a weakened country.”
In a strong passage, he says:
“When I hear some defeatist speech about Ukraine, when I hear some leaders urging Ukraine to accept they are defeated, overpricing Russia in this war, this is a huge strategic mistake, because this is not a reality.
One day, Russians will have to reckon with the enormity of the crime committed in their name, with the futility of the pretexts and the devastating, longer term effects on their country, but until that time comes, we will not lower the guard.”
He says that “we must ensure that the settlement protects Ukraine, preserves European security, disincentivize Russia from attempting again, and also doesn’t give the rest of the world a calamitous example to follow.”
Macron also reasserts Europe’s role in developing the final peace deal.
He says:
“No peace without the Europeans. I want to be very clear: you can negotiate without the Europeans, if you prefer, but it will not bring a peace at the table.”
That’s why, he says, Europe needs to re-establish diplomatic channels with Russia to not rely on others – mostly the US – to run the talks.
But he then goes on further as he talks about the need to draw up “the rules of co-existence” with Russia beyond the Ukraine war.
He also talks about the need to work out how to live with Russia beyond this war, and how to ensure Europe’s security.
He says throughout history, Europe’s security dynamics with Russia had often been defined by “old treaties” developed or managed without the Europeans at the table.
He says that he still remembers the end of Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF, treaty, about which he “discovered in the newspapers, as all the allies,” after the US withdrew from it in 2019.
“We have to be the one to negotiate this new architecture of security for the for Europe the day after, because our geography will not change,” he says.
He calls for “a series of consultations on this important issue,” saying some early work has been done with Germany and the UK, but inviting other European allies to play part.
Updated
Macron urges leaders to 'speak about homework behind closer doors and deliver'
Macron defends Europe in a love letter to its postwar political history as he says it is “a radically original political construction of free, sovereign states.”
He repeats some of his usual lines that the EU must be successful if other countries, for example from the western Balkans region, continue to want to join it.
“Everyone should take their cue from us, instead of criticising us or trying to divide us,” he says.
He then praises Europe’s achievement in a number of fields.
He eventually admits that “obviously, we have to fix a lot of things” (disappointingly, he doesn’t say “fo shure” here), as he urges fellow leaders to “speak about our homework behind closed doors, and let’s deliver.”
He then turns to Ukraine.
Updated
Macron says he wants send message 'of hope and determination' on Europe's future
Macron is speaking now and he hits a very positive note from the get-go.
He says he “wanted to come today in front of you with a message of hope and determination.”
“Where some see threats, I see our fortitude, where some see doubts, I want to see opportunity, because I believe that Europe is inherently strong and can be made even stronger yet.”
He says that “there has been a tendency these days, in this place and beyond, to overlook Europe and sometimes to criticise it outright.”
He says “Europe has been vilified as an ageing, slow, fragmented construct, sidelined by history as an overregulated, liveless economy that shuns innovation as a society [fall] prey to barbaric migration that would corrupt its precious traditions, and most curiously yet, in some quarters, as a repressive continent where … where speech would not be free, and alternative facts could not claim the same right of place as truth itself.”
He says he wants to offer “completely different view.”
Denmark, Greenland hold 'constructive' talks with US
France's Macron about to address Munich Security Conference
OK, the wait is over: France’s Emmanuel Macorn is going to speak imminently.
Quick look at bilateral meetings at Munich Security Conference
in Munich
I keep telling you about all these meetings taking place behind the closed doors, as leaders have a chance to talk to each other far away from the pesky reporters and bloggers listening to everything they say on the main stage.
So let’s take a look at some of these meetings today, including the E3 meeting between Germany, France, and the UK, and a larger European lunch with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio has been busy too meeting with Merz, but also with China’s foreign minister Wang Yi.
US ‘not powerful enough to go it alone’, Merz tells Munich conference
Diplomatic editor
in Munich
The US acting alone has reached the limits of its power and may already have lost its role as global leader, Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, warned Donald Trump at the opening of the Munich Security Conference.
He also urged the US president to recognise it is still possible to exhaust Russia economically and militarily, to the point where it is willing to come to the negotiating table over Ukraine.
In a speech on Friday designed to set a firm yet conciliatory tone about the future of the transatlantic partnership, Merz argued the old order had ended and in this new age of superpowers even the US was reaching the limits of going it alone.
Merz drew most applause from an audience brimming with hostility toward US unilateralism when he directly criticised the current American administration, saying:
“The culture war of the Maga movement is not ours. Freedom of speech ends here with us when that speech is directed against human dignity and the basic law. We do not believe in tariffs and protectionism, but in free trade. We stand by climate agreements and the World Health Organization.”
As one of the European nations doing the most to boost its own defence spending, Merz clearly felt in a strong enough position to insist the US needed to do more to listen to European concerns about its security and the legitimacy of a sustained European pillar of Nato.
Describing the Munich conference as a seismograph for the state of US-European relations, he said the Ukraine war “had forced Europe to return from a vacation from world history. Together we have entered an era that is once again marked by power and big power politics.”
Merz was speaking as the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches and one year after Vance used his speech in the same hall to criticise Europeans for not taking enough control of their own defence arrangements and ignoring the demands of its electorates.
As we are waiting for Macron’s speech, let me bring you our diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour’s take on Friedrich Merz’s speech earlier.
UK foreign minister 'hugely sceptical' of Putin's commitment to peace, calls for pressure on Russian economy
UK foreign secretary Yvette Cooper has also made similar points, calling for more pressure on the Russian economy just now.
She said she was “hugely sceptical that president Putin is committed to peace.”
“I really hope that these talks can make progress and can get to a peace agreement, but I still think we are going to need to keep intensifying that economic pressure on Russia, including tightening the chokehold on oil and gas, tightening the chokehold on the Russian shadow fleet, keeping up that economic pressure with additional sanctions, and I hope to a maritime services ban as well, so we keep ramping up the pressure on Russia’s economy. The economy has already been heavily hit, but we need to keep that pressure up further.”
Updated
Three points yet to be agreed in 20-point plan for ending Russian invasion of Ukraine, foreign minister Sybiha says
Meanwhile, Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha has just offered an update on the state of talks with Russia about ending its invasion of Ukraine.
Earlier today, Russia confirmed that the next round of talks will be conducted in Geneva, Switzerland next week.
Sybiha said the talks were “advancing” after the first two rounds of talks in Abu Dhabi, as he praised US president Donald Trump’s leadership, saying pointedly that “without Trump, it’s unrealistic to end this war.”
“But in parallel, we need to continue pressure on Russia and we still have instruments, we must admit this, for leverage,” he said, as he warned that Russia was not showing “no signs of willingness … for serious negotiations.”
Sybiha revealed that out of the 20-point peace plan, there are still disagreements over three points on the list.
“We have doable proposals, so next round we really hope we will not get additional historical lectures … now it’s a time for action, for acts, and for concrete decisive steps.”
Speaking alongside him, the French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, said “we should stop this war, obviously, and we still have levers with our allies and friends” to pull to achieve that.
He said that France and Britain “have gone very far” to block the Russian shadow fleet vessels “also using military means.”
He also stressed the importance of the upcoming 20th package of EU sanctions, expected to be adopted on the fourth anniversary of the full-scale aggression on 24 February, and the role of the so-called Coalition of the Willing in providing future security guarantees.
AOC will be back later tonight at a session on “breaking (with) the past” and “seismic shifts in US foreign policy,” speaking alongside Democratic Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer and US Nato ambassador Matthew Whitaker.
But first we’re going to hear from the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who is due on the main stage in under 20 minutes.
Trump is 'tearing apart' transatlantic partnership, 'ripping up' democratic norms, Ocasio-Cortez warns
In the Q&A, Ocasio-Cortez gets asked about her presence in Munich and the signal she wants to send by being involved in these discussions here.
She says:
“I think this is a moment where we are seeing our presidential administration tear apart the transatlantic partnership, rip up every democratic norm, and … really calling into question, as was mentioned by Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum, the rules based order that we have, or, question mark, do we have?”
She lays out her pitch for the need to address hypocrisies in the international order:
“But that does not mean that the majority of Americans are ready to walk away from a rules-based order and that we’re ready to walk away from our commitment to democracy.
I think what we identify is that in a rules-based order, hypocrisy is vulnerability.
And so I think what we are seeking is a return to a rules-based order that eliminates the hypocrisies … when, too often, in the West, we’d look the other way for inconvenient populations to act out these paradoxes, whether it is kidnapping a foreign head of state, whether it is threatening our allies to colonise Greenland, whether it is looking the other way in a genocide.
Hypocrisies are our vulnerabilities and they threaten democracies.
And so I think many of us are here to say we are here and we are ready for the next chapter, not to have the world turn to isolation, but to deepen our partnership on greater and increase commitment to integrity to our values.”
She gets good reception from the audience here with a round of applause.
Updated
Trump repeats his endorsement of Hungary's Orbán hours after Merz's criticism
Speaking of populists, US president Donald Trump has repeated his endorsement of Viktor Orbán this afternoon – just hours after pointed criticism of the Hungarian leader from the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz (14:30, 14:34, 14:39).
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Orbán is “a truly strong and powerful leader, with a proven track record of delivering phenomenal results.”
“Relations between Hungary and the United States have reached new heights of cooperation and spectacular achievement under my Administration, thanks largely to Prime Minister Orbán,” he said.
In a chaotically capitalised post, he concluded:
“I was proud to ENDORSE Viktor for Re-Election in 2022, and am honored to do so again. Viktor Orbán is a true friend, fighter, and WINNER, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election as Prime Minister of Hungary — HE WILL NEVER LET THE GREAT PEOPLE OF HUNGARY DOWN!”
The Hungarian election is scheduled for 12 April.
Czech president Petr Pavel is next and he gives an interesting view on why populism has been spreading in central and eastern Europe.
He says:
“I believe that number of people in former communist countries believed that with the change of the system, they would achieve all the benefits of capitalism while keeping all the benefits of socialism.”
He said when they realised that “not everyone will get rich, there will always be people who will be better off … then that frustration … created a lot of tensions and frustration, taken forward by people offering short-term, nice solutions that they [would] never [have to] deliver on.”
He also says, without naming names, that “the experience [shows] that when these people, who used to be for a long time … on the critical side, … are put in a position where they have the responsibility to deliver, they suddenly understand the complexity of situation and they change a lot of their … extreme positions that they held before.”
EPP’s Manfred Weber – one of the most powerful centre-right politicians in Europe - talks about the practical experience of centre-right parties taking on the far-right in Europe, specifically referencing Poland’s Donald Tusk and his 2024 win over the Law and Justice government.
He says as a general rule, EPP is not prepared to work with “parties which do not follow the three pros, so pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine, pro-rule of law.”
He quotes the EPP’s decision to kick Hungary’s Viktor Orbán out of the grouping as a proof of that commitment.
But he admits that it’s clear that the way to respond to populism and growing frustration among voters is to “give proper answer to their concerns and take it seriously,” as he attacks the socialists in the European Parliament for not supporting the EU’s controversial migration plans.
He says Europe “cannot continue to follow a … left-leaning political approach on migration,” which in his view is “feeding extremism and populism,” and needs to show its responding to people’s concerns.
He warns that “we have to solve problems; otherwise, the next European elections in 2029 will be a big festival for the far-right extreme [parties], and [we need] to avoid it.”
Ocasio-Cortez says she sympathises with some of the working-class people who turn towards far-right parties in desperation, as she can relate to their frustration as it’s something she experienced too.
But she says “what we are seeing over the last eight years has been a growing recognition that of those past errors,” and there is an “increased recognition that we have to have a working class centred, politics, if we are going to succeed and stave off the scourge of authoritarianism,” which is fuelled as people find “scapegoats to blame for rising economic inequality.”
She gets a question on whether she’s ready to pursue a wealth tax when she runs for US presidency – but she doesn’t take the bite.
“I don’t think that anyone and that we don’t have to wait for any one president to impose a wealth tax. I think that it needs to be done expeditiously,” she says.
Updated
MSC Townhall room packed as Ocasio-Cortez makes Munich debut
in Munich
I have just had a quick walk around the hotel going to my next session. It’s absolutely packed and buzzing – and not always inside the actual meeting rooms.
As mentioned earlier, there is a lot of activity happening on the margins (10:53), and you can see ministers and officials meeting in small groups to chat on the corridors of the Bayerischer Hof.
But the room I am in now is packed as US congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez makes her Munich debut in a panel on populism.
She is joined by European centre-right EPP grouping’s president Manfred Weber, Czech president Petr Pavel, and Argentinian lawmaker Daiana Fernández Molero.
Trump 'most destructive president' ever, Newsom says
Meanwhile, California governor Gavin Newsom is blasting Donald Trump on the main stage, saying the US president is “doubling down on stupid.”
“Never in the history of the United States of America has there been a more destructive president than the current occupant in the White House in Washington, DC,” he says.
He says Trump “is trying to recreate the 19 century.”
“We’re proving at scale that we can implement, we can compete and we can dominate, but Donald Trump is trying to turn back the clock.”
He strongly says:
“I hope, if there’s nothing else I can communicate today, Donald Trump is temporary. He’ll be gone in three years,” he asserts.
He says the climate crisis is hitting Americans directly, as “people are burning up, choking up, heating up; we have simultaneous droughts and floods, historic wildfires.”
“In California, it’s a big blue state, but also has more Republicans than most Republican states, and we have long moved beyond the partisanship on this issue, because there is no Republican thermometer, there’s no democratic thermometer. There’s just reality.”
Remember: Newsom is talked about as a potential Democratic candidate in 2028.
Watch out for Macron's language on Europe and nuclear deterrence - snap analysis
in Munich
Two things to look out for in Macron’s speech later tonight is how he talks about his big idea of advancing European sovereignty and what, if anything, he says on nuclear deterrence, mentioned by Merz (14:15).
The French president has just arrived here – although, presumably much to MSC’s Ischinger’s disappointment, he is no longer wearing his Davos aviator sunglasses (13:39).
There is lots of smaller sessions coming up now, involving California governon Gavin Newsom, Sweden’s prime minister Ulf Kristersson, and EU tech commissioner’s Henna Virkunnen (11:32).
And then, obviously, Emmanuel Macron is on at 7pm local time (6pm UK).
in Munich
Stubb is such a standout public speaker. You can feel that the room is following his contributions very closely (and that’s not always a given at this sort of conferences).
Despite coming from a relatively small country, he has established in recent months as one of Europe’s key leaders on a number of issues, from trade to US ties.
It probably helps that he has genuinely deep understanding of the US as he completed part of his education there and, oh yes, he sometimes plays golf with Trump giving him the nickname of “Trump whisperer”.
In between giving serious, thoughtful answers on serious topics, he is effortlessly plugging in Finland’s Nokia as a potential replacement for Huawei and joking about his birthday in a way that is rare – and so refreshing – at this level of politics.
One has to wonder if there is a scenario in which he gets picked for a senior EU or international job in the future.
But his presidential term only ends in 2030, so let’s hope there will be some international organisations left by then.
Back on the conference stage they are still broadly discussing trade issues, but Stubb has just been essentially asked by a Ukrainian journalist along the lines of “based on Finland’s experience, how to sort Russia out.”
He offers a strong answer as he says:
“I’m not going to give you advice, but I think you’re winning this war, and the reason I say this is that Putin has failed strategically.
He wanted to make Ukraine Russian; it became European. He wanted to prevent the enlargement of Nato; he got Finland and Sweden, and he wanted to keep our defence expenditure down, and it’s now going up to 5%.
Secondly, he’s losing on the military front. Remember that when the war began, Russia acquired 12% of Ukrainian territory. That’s 12 years ago. Since then, 8% in the past two years, 1% in December, Ukraine was able to kill 34,000 Russian soldiers they were not able to recruit back.
So my answer is, just keep on what you’re doing, and at the end of the day, you will prevail and win this war.”
He gets very good reception in the room with a round of applause from the attendees.
Updated
Europe needs strength to face new global 'disorder,' Denmark's Frederiksen says in diplomacy push
Away from the conference hall, a lot of focus is on Denmark and their strong presence here in Munich.
It’s no coincidence that Merz pointedly mentioned the Danish PM Mette Frederiksen and the European support for her in his speech.
Frederiksen is here, joined by her foreign and defence ministers, and it’s their first big event of this sort where they can engage with the US and other partners since the Greenland crisis.
As mentioned earlier, she is due to host talks with Rubio over Greenland (11:41), among others.
Remember: the Danes skipped Davos last month altogether, so they are now very active here – and hit very similar tones to those expressed by Merz earlier.
For her part, Frederiksen spoke with the FT earlier today (£), warning that Europe needs an “emergency mindset” to face the new world order focused on sheer power.
She warned that “a Europe that is not able and willing to protect itself is going to die at some point”.
“Unfortunately, strength is one of the weapons that is useful in this new world disorder and therefore Europe has to be strong enough.”
We will hear from her on the main stage tomorrow twice: once on transatlantic relations, and then on Arctic security.
Discussing trade, Finland’s Stubb gets asked on his advice for other countries to secure their future in this new, emerging world order.
He semi-jokes saying “join the European Union, it gives you protection.”
He says that became even clearer after Trump’s threat on Greenland, as he couldn’t just impose tariffs on some EU countries, “because it’s then 25% for the European Union.”
He says smaller countries or middle powers should “lean in and support the multilateral trade organisations” to give them some protection.
Earlier, WTO’s chief Ngozi said that while she “may not agree with the US [on unilateral actions],” she agreed “with a lot of their criticism of the system.”
“I would like to say is that the system has not evolved, has not been quick to change and respond to the changing world, and some of those criticisms about it not functioning well, are good,” she said.
She said more needs to be done, but also stressed that “in spite of the massive disruption of the system, the biggest [undermining of global trade rules] we’ve seen in the past 80 years, … the system is proving resilient.”
The next main stage conference is on “tariff-ying times” we are facing – eye-roll for that awfully cheesy pun – amid the weaponisation of trade for other purposes.
German finance minister Lars Klingbeil and Finnish president Alexander Stubb are among the panellists.
They are joined by WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and US senator Thomas Roland Tillis.
I will keep an eye out for main news lines for you.
Palpable US-EU tension on how new world order could look like - snap analysis
in Munich
It was a very interesting panel, and in a certain way it perfectly captured the key issue of the new world order emerging from chaos as you could genuinely feel some tension between Waltz and Kallas there.
It’s pretty rare too see that in public events at this level.
The key question is whether the Saudi minister’s optimistic prediction will come true or will things unravel first before they get better (or not).
Both Merz’s speech earlier and this panel will only raise the interest in Rubio’s speech tomorrow.
Saudi foreign minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud seeks to put a positive spin on the debate so far as he says that “finally, we are being, all of us, honest with each other.”
“We don’t agree yet, but we’re actually having the conversation,” he says.
“Everybody is saying how they really feel about the system and how it didn’t work from their perspective,” he says.
He neatly (and optimistically) sums it up:
“It will take us some time to actually get to a point where we agree on what the future system is going to look like, and how the burden sharing is going to work, and how [to preserve] equality of states, even though there is a disparity in interests and in capacity, is going to be addressed.
But I think over time, with some pain – as I mentioned, there will be some pain in the process of getting there – I think we will be in a better world.”
And that ends this panel.
In the Q&A, Waltz gets asked whether the US is still committed to European defence amid reports of possible US troop reductions.
Waltz says that’s “absolutely” the case.
But he says that “the American people have underwritten, with their hard earned dollar, the global multilateral rules based order since the second world war,” but growing issues caused by debt mean “it is fair on their behalf to ask 450 million Europeans with the same size economy as the United States to be more self sustaining in their own defence.”
He says:
“When I go to people in Indiana and Georgia and North Florida that I represented, and it is their money paying more than 180 countries combined into the UN system. I have to look at them honestly and say it’s being well spent, and it’s not.”
He then repeats the progress made on Nato’s funding arrangements in the last decade, and points to Trump’s expansive foreign policy agenda as a proof that the US still believes in multilateralism.
As he explains, “we’re asking the rest of the world to be there with us in a fair way financially, because there is a cost to the status quo, and the status quo was not sustainable any more.”
Kallas comes in and says that she rejects Europe is not doing its bit, as it massively contributes financially.
She then spells out another element of “multilateralism” means, stressing that difference between Russia and the US is that “when Russia goes to war, they go alone because they don’t have allies,” and “when America goes to wars, then a lot of us go with you and we lose our people on the way.”
“So, that means that you also need us in your you know to be this superpower,” she says.
EU’s Kallas slightly pushes back on that brag from Waltz, as she says that “it is very good that you want to reform the international order,” but points out that international organisations should be operating based on equality of states.
She also points out that, despite what Waltz claimed, Trump’s Board of Peace is only UN-backed in its narrower, Gaza-focused and time-limited mission.
Waltz kind of takes some of these points, but expresses his frustration with the lack of action as “the US has historically paid more than 180 countries combined” when it comes to the UN, and “I have to look at mechanics, doctors, nurses, firefighters … struggling to get their kids to school, and yet I have UN officials flying business class around the world.”
He says “no one was doing it” when it comes to reforming international bodies, but “talked about it endlessly, [with] strongly worded letters.”
He repeats his earlier line saying that “what I’m hearing outside forums like this, privately, is thank you for American leadership.”
US under Trump 'returning world from the brink,' Waltz insists as he rejects criticism
Waltz also completely rejects the suggestion that the world is “under destruction,” as the MSC report put it.
He says:
“I have to push back on the premise the world on the brink, which I think was the name of this, of this panel.
We are returning the world from the brink where it was 18 months ago, between Ukraine, Gaza, Iran …, Houthis shutting down the Suez canal, the refugee crisis in South America, and on and on.
So I just if you focus on the facts and the results, and if we have to reform multilateralism that hasn’t been reformed frankly in 80 years, then I think that should be welcomed by the world.”
He then amazingly pulls out a blue “Make UN great again” cap and gifts it to the moderator, The Economist’s editor in chief Zanny Minton Beddoes, who puts it safely on a side table.
(If no one wants it, I will take it, no worries, it’s the sort of political geeky thing that we wear at Europe Live HQ.)
Trump will 'do for UN what he's done for Nato' over last decade, US Waltz says
US ambassador to UN Mike Waltz is addressing some of these points now.
He says that the UN needs to be put “on a diet” as “everyone agrees that reform was needed.”
“We are pushing hard for the UN to go back to basics, to that peacemaking and peacekeeping function that was core to its founding,” he says.
He says Trump will do to the UN what he is doing to Nato, pushing it to act and get its house in order.
Earlier, he also claimed that the US active posture in the western hemisphere – which he calls leadership and says was demonstrated in Venezuela - is being welcomed by a lot of countries.
Meanwhile, the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas is now on the main stage, speaking alongside Saudi foreign minister, Colombian defence minister, and US’s UN ambassador.
She kind of shares Merz’s diagnosis that the world order as we know it is over, stating that it was built to prevent wars – and that’s clearly not working as we see around the world.
She says the one missing thing is accountability, as countries sign up to the UN charter, but face no real accountability for breaking the rules.
Merz's speech will set tone of Munich talks on reshaping US relations - snap analysis
in Munich
And overall, that was a very strong speech from Merz.
You can see why he wanted to open the conference to set the tone of discussions.
His direct appeal to reset transatlantic relationship, but setting healthy boundaries on respect (14:19, 14:21, 14:24) will probably dominate conversations in the next two days.
Merz's Hungary comments will spark reaction - snap analysis
in Munich
Merz’s comments on Hungary – first his swipe on Orbán’s visit to Moscow, and then on enlargement – will no doubt spark an angry reaction from Budapest.
Particularly the latter comment is very telling – a clear reference to the parliamentary election in April – as that’s probably as close as he can get to endorsing the Hungarian opposition.
Expect a strong response from Orbán, who will no doubt decry this as “foreign interference” in the Hungarian elections.
By the way, these comments, too, have a US angle: the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, will be flying to Hungary from Munich.
Merz has made it quite clear he would not want the US to support or endorse Orbán as he thinks his actions run against Europe’s interest.
(The US president, Donald Trump, publicly backed Orbán just last week.)
'I don't want to lose you,' Germany's Merz tells EU candidate countries
Merz also goes into a discussion on the EU’s enlargement prospects, including Montenegro, whose president asked the question.
He admits that he is “feeling more and more uncomfortable” with the EU’s inability to make meaningful progress on the accession process.
“We have to reopen a new strategy, how to bring these countries closer to the European Union. I don’t want to lose you,” he says.
He acknowledges there is “an elephant in the room” as the process requires unanimity and Hungary continues to block any process, “but we have to overcome that.”
He appears to point to Hungarian parliamentary elections in April, saying that “after the election which will take place in April hopefully will be able to open the next chapters and bring you closer and closer to the EU.”
Russia not yet willing to talk seriously about Ukraine, Merz warns
In the Q&A, Merz gets asked about Russia.
He starts with a swipe on Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, telling a story of “a prime minister” from the EU who travelled to Moscow with no mandate, “achieved nothing,” and a week later Ukraine suffered some of “the heaviest attacks on civil infrastructure.”
“So if it makes sense to talk, we are willing to talk. But as you can see with the American side, Russia is not yet willing to talk seriously.”
He says the war will “only end when Russia is at least economically, and potentially militarily, exhausted.”
“We are approaching this time … but we are not yet there,” he says.
He adds:
“Russia has to give up this terrible war against Ukraine, and we have to do everything what is needed to bring them to the point where they see no further advantages for them to continue this terrible war.”
Merz also says that Europe can look to new trade and political partners globally, as “partnership is not an absolute term here; it doesn’t require full convergence of all values and interests.”
He names Canada, Japan, Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa, the Gulf states and others.
He ends with a stark warning:
“We Germans know a world in which might makes right would be a dark place. Our country has gone down this path in the 20th century until the bitter and dreadful end.”
That’s why, he says, a different response is needed this time round.
He gets decent applause for his speech, as we go into the Q&A.
Europe needs to resolve its 'self-inflicted' dependency on US to rebalance transatlantic relations
Going back to German, Merz acknowledges some European errors too, as he says “no one forced us into this excessive dependency on the United States in which we have found ourselves recently.”
“This dependence was self inflicted, but we now cast off this state as soon as we can,” he says.
He says that will be through strengthening the European pillar of Nato.
He says:
“I suppose that we may have differing opinions more often than in the past, we will [have to] negotiate about the right way forward, and maybe have to argue about it.
But if we do this with new strength, new respect and self-respect, it will be to the benefit of both sides.”
He says the first signs of that showed up in a recent confrontation with the US over Greenland, as he backs Denmark’s Frederiksen and says she has “unlimited” European solidarity.
Updated
'In era of great power rivalry, even US will not be powerful to go alone', Merz says
Merz then turns to English and addresses the US delegation directly with a very powerful rebuke to the US.
He says that for generations, “the trust among allies, partners, and friends made Nato the strongest alliance of all times. “Europe knows deeply how precious this is,” he adds.
But he then warns:
In the era of great power rivalry, even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone.
He adds:
“Dear friends, being a part of Nato is not only Europe’s competitive advantage, it’s also the United States competitive advantage. So let’s repair and revive transatlantic trust together. We, the Europeans, are doing our part.”
Updated
Merz rebukes US criticism of Europe
Merz now turns to the US, and he does not mince his words.
He pointedly responds to JD Vance’s aggressive speech here last year, agreeing with him that a gap between Europe and the US has opened on a few things.
He very pointedly says that “the battle of culture of Maga in the US” is not ours in Europe, and adds that “freedom of speech here ends when the words spoken are against human dignity and our basic law.”
He adds:
“We do not believe in tariffs and protectionism, but in free trade. We stick to climate agreements and the WHO because we are convinced that global challenges can only be solved together.”
'If Europe is torn apart, we are torn apart,' Merz talks on EU alliances
Merz then turns to other European alliances, talking about the importance of the E3 format with France and the UK, and the broader format with Italy and Poland.
“In the long run, we will only be successful if we take the other Europeans on board, and we’re doing that for us Germans, there’s no way around it. We are at the heart of Europe. If Europe is torn apart, we are torn apart. Germany is torn apart,” he says.
Merz calls for discussion on EU's 'mutual assistance' clause
Curiously, Merz also called for a further discussion on the Article 42 of the EU treaties, which talks about “mutual assistance” in case of an armed attack on Europe.
He says he wants the EU to “spell out” how this is supposed to work – “not to replace Nato, but as a self-sustained, strong pillar within the alliance.”
He also says he has started “first talks” with France’s Emmanuel Macron about a European nuclear deterrence programme “to be embedded in our nuclear sharing within Nato.”
'Big power politics' in Europe is not an option for Germany, Merz says
Merz says he can understand why some people are “uneasy” about the current state of relations with the US and “shares” some of these concerns, but calls to write off US as a partner are unrealistic.
He says “they ignore hard geopolitical realities in Europe and they underestimate the potential that our partnership with the US continues to have, despite all the difficulties that exist.”
But he says Europe still should focus on creating and pushing its own agenda to face the new order, through the united EU.
“Big power politics in Europe is not an option for Germany. Leadership in partnership, yes. Hegemonial fantasies, no.”
He then turns to talk about Germany and Europe’s support for Ukraine, highlighting his government’s move to change the constitution to increase defence spending.
Merz also talks up domestic investments in defence and reforms to Germany’s military service in home and abroad, including the first-ever German foreign deployment to Lithuania.
He repeats his pledge to “make the Bundeswehr the strongest conventional army in Europe.”
The chancellor then turns to economy, competitiveness and future-proofing it through new technologies and AI.
He repeats his well-rehearsed call to “cap the explosion of the European bureaucracy and regulation.”
We “must not put us in chains that rob us of our competitiveness,” he says.
'Turn switch in our minds' to make Europe superpower and face chaos of new world order, Merz says
Merz says that “compared to its power instruments, German foreign policy of the last decades had a normative surplus of the best intentions.”
What he means by that?
He says:
“It criticised violations of the international order all over the world. It has often admonished, demanded and scolded, but it was not worried enough about the fact that it often lacked the means to solve the problem.”
He says “the gap between ambition and possibility had grown too wide,” and Europeans need to focus on closing it now.
He says:
“And one striking example is Russia’s GDP is currently about €2tn, and that of the European Union is almost 10 times as high.
But still, Europe is not 10 times as strong as Russia today. Our military, political, economic and technological potential is huge, but we haven’t tapped it to the necessary extent for a very long time.
So the most important thing is to turn the switch in our minds now.”
He says that “it’s not just too much state power that destroys the foundation of our freedom; too little state power will lead you to different paths, but same result.”
He quotes Poland’s foreign minister Radek Sikorski for saying 15 years ago that he feared German power less than German inactivity.
“This too is our responsibility,” he says, outlining Germany’s role in this new world order.
World order as we know it 'no longer exists,' Germany's Merz warns
Merz begins with pleasantries, saying the MSC “has always been a seismograph for the political situation,” drawing on his experience of coming here for years to “foster relations with our American friends.”
But he mentions that in recent years we have seen “increasing tensions and conflicts in the world,” including the Russian aggression on Ukraine.
He says the MSC’s motto of “under destruction” is a bit “grim,” but he says “we need to put it in even harsher terms” as he declares “this [world] order no longer exists.”
“Europe has just returned from a vacation from history,” he says.
He says we are now facing an era “marked by big power politics,” including Russia’s “violent revisionism” dictating its aggression against Ukraine.
He also says that China “wants to be a leader in shaping the world,” but it “systematically uses dependencies of others and redefines the international order in its own favour.”
He says the US claim to global leadership “has been challenged and possibly lost.”
He says “big power politics” is “a reflection of restless, agitated societies in times of revolutionary changes.”
But Merz warns it also tests the boundaries of democratic system as it pushes people towards “strong and easy answers.”
He says commodities, technology and supply chains play a particularly important role in this new, emerging world order.
He says the US is now realised its need to “catch up in some areas” with China, which “does not slow down this trend, but rather accelerates it.”
The chancellor says the Europeans need to accept that’s the reality they are facing and and face it – instead of denying the problem – standing up for their values.
Updated
in Munich
It’s always a big set piece for a German chancellor to address the Munich Security Conference.
It’s Merz’s first since he took the office last year.
Unlike his predecessors, he chose to speak in the opening session on the first day, which will be read as an attempt to set the tone of the meeting.
Let’s see what he says.
Bavaria leader Markus Söder is up next, building up to Merz’s speech as the keynote after him.
He says he “cannot imagine a world without the transatlantic bond,” as he says it would have once been “unthinkable” to even wonder about it.
Curiously, despite his generally very pro-US tone, he pointedly criticises the US for Trump’s comments on allied contribution to Afghanistan war.
He says Germans were “surprised and maybe a little hurt” by these comments, as Germany and other allies “stood by the US and paid the highest price.”
“I believe it would be appropriate to respect this, to respect the sacrifice that our forces made in Afghanistan,” he says.
Ouch.
But he then again stresses that yes, the US should perhaps show a bit more respect to Europeans, but he then quips on choice between the US and Russia, saying that while his preferred drinks is and remains a pint of Bavarian beer, he “prefers whiskey to vodka.”
Merz is next.
MSC's Ischinger puts leaders on spot as he lists pointed 'serious' questions
Ischinger, a former German ambassador to the US, says “this is a time to be serious,” as he adds:
“This is not a time to mince our words or, as they say, to beat around the bush. We need to be honest about our differences, but we should seek to help organise a constructive transatlantic reset, if that is possible, this weekend.”
That’s a tall order, Wolfgang, but let’s try.
He then pointedly pokes kind of everyone in the room with a stick, asking sharply pointed questions about their policies.
He asks EU leaders “what concrete steps are you proposing … beyond delivering speeches to help create a European Union that is going to be a more respected international actor and more capable of defending our freedom, our values and our borders.”
He then asks five UN security council permanent members about what they are willing to do on nuclear non-proliferation, and asks the US if the Trump administration “believe truly that it needs allies and partners,” and if it is “actually prepared to treat allies as partners.”
Turning to China, he asks Chinese leadership – the country’s foreign minister is in attendance – “to what extent China is actually going to be willing to invest in getting Russia to end its aggression and withdraw from Ukraine.”
He gets applause for his no-nonsense questions.
Munich Security Conference gets under way
MSC’s Ischinger opens with a quip that what happened in Davos doesn’t need to stay in Davos as he puts Macron-style aviator sunglasses much to the room’s amusement and laugther.
He says the conference takes place at a time of “growing concerns about global security, or should I say, insecurity.”
He says:
“Never before in the more than 60 years of this conference, have there been so many simultaneous rather fundamental challenges and bloody wars in Europe, around Europe and around the globe.”
He provocatively says:
“A rule-based international order, did it ever exist? There is a reason our Munich security report of this year carries the title ‘Under destruction’.”
He notes “unprecedented challenges” to transatlantic ties, but pointedly welcomes US secretary of state Marco Rubio and the delegation of the US Congress.
Updated
in Munich
It’s fascinating to watch all these small chats happening just seconds before the conference gets under way, with the Norwegian finance minister (and ex Nato secretary general) Jens Stoltenberg deep in discussion with his prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, in the first few rows.
But they have finally all listened to the increasingly desperate pleadings from the hosts and are now sat down.
Germany’s Friedrich Merz gets into his seat just seconds before the lights go down for an intro film.
The conference is about to start.
Updated
'Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seats now'
Ready?
Attendees are being told to take their seats now, ahead of the opening session starting in about five minutes.
We will have a short opening sequence involving the Munich Security Conference’s chair Wolfgang Ischinger and Bavarian leader Markus Söder, before the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, takes to the stage to talk about “Germany in Europe and the world.”
I will bring you all the key lines here.
Nato's Rutte expects Rubio to press Europeans to 'take more leadership role' in alliance
Nato secretary general Mark Rutte has just stopped by journalists on his way into the hotel to answer some questions on this weekend’s proceedings.
He says he expects US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s speech tomorrow to “no doubt continue to press Europeans to keep on taking more of a leadership role in Nato, and make it more European-led.”
He says:
“It’s my expectation that it will only help for the US to be even more anchored inside Nato.
Of course, I’m not writing a speech, but I’ve every confidence in this, in the speech.”
He says the Europeans are stepping up their defence spending “not only because the US is asking for it, but also because we need it because of the Russian threat.”
Zelenskyy welcomes first joint Ukrainian-Germany drone manufacturing line
Zelenskyy has offered a bit more detail on the drone factory visit on his social media channels.
He said the factory was part of “the first German-Ukrainian joint venture … already producing drones for the Ukrainian army.”
He says he received the first one as a gift today, and stressed it’s a “modern Ukrainian technology,” and was “battle-tested, powered by AI.”
10,000 drones manufactured here will go to Ukraine “this year,” he said.
By the end of the year, he is hoping to see 10 similar joint ventures set up in various places.
Focus on Ukraine with Zelenskyy, foreign minister Sybiha attending side events
As mentioned earlier, there are lots of activities on the sidelines of the main conference that allow for more public and private diplomacy (10:53).
Earlier today, German and Ukrainian foreign ministers opened “Ukraine House,” a special space for additional events on Ukraine’s future.
And German defence minister Boris Pistorius is now showing the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, around a drone factory near Munich.
Zelenskyy will deliver his conference speech tomorrow late morning, speaking after Rubio, von der Leyen and Starmer, among others.
German chancellor Merz arrives ahead of his Munich speech
German chancellor Friedrich Merz has now arrived in Munich, presenting his 2026 spring look (the weather is much nicer today, compared to yesterday’s torrential rain).
He is due on the main stage in just over an hour.
What does Europe’s future look like? - Q&A with Jon Henley
Separately, our Europe correspondent Jon Henley is now answering your questions on Europe’s future on our reader Q&A below.
Feel free to join the chat with Jon as he offers his insight on what lies ahead for Europe.
'No shah, no mullah' Iran protest outside Munich conference
in Munich
Ahead of the conference getting under way, there is a demonstration not too far from the main venue, calling for a regime change in Iran.
I just popped out there since it was billed on social media as potentially attracting “thousands” of people.
The demonstration – organised by the supporters of the National Council of Resistance of Iran – is not quite that big, at least not yet,but several hundreds dressed in yellow caps and yellow vests are chanting “No Shah, no mullah”.
They are not happy about the involvement of Reza Pahlavi, the US exiled son of Iran’s former pro-western monarch.
“The Iranian people have rejected all forms of dictatorship, be it the Shah or the supreme leader. The presence of the son of the deposed dictator of Iran at the Munich Security Conference leave a shameful stain on the conference,” a speaker said from the main stage.
She added that it reminded Iranians of the 1953 coup “that inflicted immeasurable pain and suffering on our people.”
“Our message today is … clear, simple and unwavering: the changing will come from within Iran, not from foreign intervention,” the speaker said.
Walking into the crowd, I spoke with Muhammad, who attended the protest with three other people, waving the Iranian flag.
He told me “the signal to leaders was simple, we just want our freedom, nothing more.”
Earlier I also met a 20-year-old Ukrainian Nikita, who wanted to express his solidarity with the protesters.
Here’s our diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, giving more context on Pahlavi and this discussion on who could lead Iran in the future.
Updated
US Rubio expected to speak with Danish, Greenlandic leaders on sidelines of Munich conference
One of the most closely watched side meetings will be that between US secretary of state Marco Rubio and the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen and the Greenlandic prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen.
Obviously, the context of the meeting is the continued US interest in controlling the semi-autonomous Danish territory.
The US, Denmark and Greenland have been locked in talks about the future of the territory for over a month now, and Rubio said last month the process could take months before they get somewhere with it.
Asked about Greenland last night before departing for Munich, Rubio said:
“We’re working on that, we feel good about it.”
Key events of the day
My picks in bold.
All in local CET, -1 for GMT
13:30 Conference opening
13:45 German chancellor Friedrich Merz
14:30 EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, US UN ambassador Michael Waltz, Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud
15:30 Finnish president Alexander Stubb, German finance minister Lars Klingbeil
16:30 California governon Gavin Newsom
17:30 Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson, Moldovan president Maia Sandu, German intelligence chief Martin Jäger, Nato military committee chair Giuseppe Cavo Dragone
17:30 Czech president Petr Pavel, US congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
18:15 EU technology commissioner Henna Virkkunen
18:30 Ukraine panel: French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot, UK foreign minister Yvette Cooper, Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha, Dutch foreign minister David van Weel, US senator Jeanne Shaheen
18:45 Reza Pahlavi
19:00 French president Emmanuel Macron
22:00 US congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, US Nato ambassador Matthew Whitaker, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer
That’s just from the main programme, before we look at 250+ side events across Munich…
Updated
What to expect from 2026 Munich Security Conference? - video
If you need a primer on what’s on the agenda for the next three days, I spoke with the MSC’s head of policy Nicole Koenig, the author of the European part of their security report published ahead of the meeting.
I asked her what is most likely to be the focus of this year’s forum, will Rubio deliver a “JD Vance 2.0” speech or say something more (nomen omen) diplomatic, and what other topics are likely to come up.
Here is what she said:
Nato's Rutte talks up 'shift in mindset' among leaders as he warns against falling for Russian propaganda
Nato’s Rutte begins by commenting on yesterday’s Nato ministerial in Brussels, where he says he could feel “a shift in the mindset” of the leaders around the table.
“We have had years, decades of complaints by the US about the fact that in Europe, we were not spending enough on defence. That has changed since the summit in The Hague.
The shift in mindset is that yesterday in the room, what we felt, all of us, there was a clear coming together of vision and of unity.
Europe really is stepping up, Europe is taking more of a leadership role within Nato.”
On Ukraine, he says that Nato needs to continue its support for Ukraine, and “do more for Ukraine.”
But he also says that Russia is recording “staggering losses” as it continues its aggression, mockingly saying that:
“They want [us] to perceive the Russians as a mighty bear, but you could argue they are moving through Ukraine at the stilted speed of a garden snail, so let’s not fall the trap of the Russian propaganda.”
His comments bring a bit of a snark from the attendees.
EU's von der Leyen, Nato's Rutte arrive for talks in Munich
As leaders start to arrive, some will speak to the media – either at the Hof, or at multiple side events accompanying the conference.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is now speaking alongside Nato’s Mark Rutte and German foreign minister Johann Wadephul at a side event organised by Germany’s ruling CDU party.
You can watch it here:
We only see tip of iceberg as Munich becomes place to do business this weekend - snap analysis
in Munich
One of the peculiarities of the Munich Security Conference is that it’s programme famously lands very late.
We only got it in full this morning, and I will bring you all the highlights shortly to help you plan your day. But don’t worry: we will cover everything that matters here.
This sort of last announcement is unusual for a conference of this size, but highlights the other, at least equally if not more important, side of this event: a chance for so many national and security leaders to speak in private in pre-arranged and ad hoc meetings.
This also explains a pretty complicated system of differently coloured IDs that regulate your access across the site. The closer to the actual power you are, the better colours (and holograms!) you get.
To give you an idea of just how busy this weekend will be for the leaders, a few European delegations I spoke with today said they each had more than 40 meetings on their schedule: be it in bilateral, one on one settings, or some other variously defined regional arrangements, or with broader panels.
And that’s before the (inevitable) “pull asides” and “bump intos,” some of which are carefully choreographed, others are just “things that pop up.”
It’s worth keeping in mind that what we see in the public part of the event is just the tip of the iceberg of the activity happening here.
in Munich
It’s fascinating how much the city centre of Munich has changed overnight: last night you could walk relatively freely around the main hotel, getting a chance to feel like Merz or Starmer near that elegant Bayerischer Hof entrance.
It’s a completely different story today, with large parts around the venue locked and with several layers of security, and going inside for a meeting, you have to go through two or three checkpoints.
Expect that to be stepped up even further as the day goes as we expect more high-profile arrivals.
Rubio lands at Munich airport ahead of key speech
This morning, Rubio landed at Munich airport – a day after it was hit by a Lufthansa strike, causing widespread travel disruption (not that they would affect his fancy secretary of state-branded plane).
He is expected to hold a number of bilateral meetings with EU foreign ministers today, ahead of his speech tomorrow, we understand.
Europeans 'want honesty, want to know where we are going', Rubio says ahead of Munich speech
Before leaving for Munich, Rubio was asked if the Europeans should expect another combative speech like from JD Vance last year, or a more conciliatory one.
He said:
“You got to wait till Saturday. It’ll be good, we’ll be good. I think it’ll be well received. We’ll see. I think they want honesty. They want to know where we’re going, where we’d like to go, where we’d like to go with them. so that’s our hope.”
He added:
“Europe’s important to us. We’re very tightly linked to Europe. I think most people in this country can trace either their cultural or their personal heritage back to Europe. So we’re deeply tied to Europe, and our futures have always been linked, and will continue to be. So we just got to talk about what that future looks like.”
Guardian staff:
The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has said he will have a chance to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy at this week’s Munich Security Conference.
A year after the vice-president, JD Vance, stunned assembled dignitaries with a verbal assault on many of the US’s closest allies in Europe, Rubio plans to take a less contentious but philosophically similar approach when he addresses the annual gathering on Saturday, US officials say.
Before boarding his flight on Thursday evening, Rubio used reassuring words as he described Europe as important for Americans. “We’re very tightly linked together with Europe,” he told reporters. But he also made clear it wouldn’t be business as usual, saying: “We live in a new era in geopolitics, and it’s going to require all of us to reexamine what that looks like.”
Opening Summary
World leaders and policymakers from around 120 countries are set to gather in Germany on Friday for the 62nd Munich Security Conference.
Much of the three-day conference is expected to be taken up with discussions about the erosion of the rules-based international order, with the organisers saying this year’s meeting takes place at a “fundamental inflection point”.
Speakers include German chancellor Friedrich Merz, UK prime minister Keir Starmer, French president Emmanuel Macron and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
In Munich on Friday and Saturday, US secretary of state Marco Rubio is expected to keep pushing Europe to share the burden on matters of common defence.
But the gathering comes against a backdrop of deepening geopolitical uncertainty as the US adopts an increasingly volatile tone towards its traditional allies and a major breakdown in trust between Washington and European capitals. Donald Trump has repeatedly voiced grievances against Nato and made threats to seize Greenland. something that has pushed away even some of his own ideological allies in Europe.
With a broader realignment underway as countries balance trade interdependence with concerns over technology and security, Russia continues to press on with its war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, unresolved conflicts and regional power struggles – from Gaza to the Gulf – add another layer of volatility in an already highly contested global landscape.
Stay tuned as we bring you all the major developments from Munich this weekend.
Morning opening: World order 'under destruction'
Good morning from Munich, where dozens of global leaders are set to meet at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel to discuss the latest in EU-US ties – and other burning global issues, such as Ukraine, Gaza, Iran – amid rapidly changing security and defence situation.
Flying in to Munich, US secretary of state Marco Rubio issued a rather stark warning, saying:
“The world is changing very fast, right in front of us: the old world is gone, frankly, the world I grew up in, and we live in a new era in geopolitics, and it’s going to require all of us to sort of re-examine what that looks like and what our role is going to be.”
Earlier this week, the organisers’ assessment of the situation was even more blunt as they argued the post-war world order was “under destruction,” as we enter “a period of wrecking ball politics” where “sweeping destruction – rather than careful reforms and policy corrections – is the order of the day”.
It added:
“The most prominent of those who promise to free their country from the existing order’s constraints and rebuild a stronger, more prosperous nation is the current US administration. As a result, more than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now under destruction.”
The US ambassador to Nato, Matthew Whitaker, rejected this assessment when he responded to the report’s findings earlier this week (Europe Live, Monday), but there is no doubt that many Europeans do see it that way.
The attendees here will be looking to Rubio’s speech on Saturday to provide some reassurance, hoping he will hit some more diplomatic tones than US vice-president JD Vance who attended the event last year.
But before we get to hear from Rubio, we have some of the European leaders lined up to take to the main stage today, including the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron.
We will bring you all the lines from all the key speeches at the MSC, some colour from behind the scenes, and first analysis to what we hear from global leaders here.
It’s Friday, 13 February 2026, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
Good morning. Or Guten Tag!
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