The US president, Donald Trump, claimed on May 28 to have personally stopped Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. When asked if he’d intervened during a phone call with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump replied: “Well, I’d like to be honest. Yes, I did … I said, I don’t think it’s appropriate right now”. The Trump administration is currently in talks with Iran over the future terms of its nuclear programme.
Middle East expert Scott Lucas answered the Conversation’s questions about the disagreement over Iran and how it might affect US-Israel relations.
The US wants a nuclear deal with Iran. Israel doesn’t. Why the disagreement?
Israel has long been sceptical of diplomatic overtures to Tehran, saying Iran is committed to Israel’s destruction. This position has not changed.
When Trump apparently told Netanyahu recently that he wanted a diplomatic solution with Iran and believed in his ability to “make a good deal”, the Israeli leader insisted that the only “good deal” would be one that dismantled Iran’s nuclear facilities.
But Trump’s priority is not a “good deal”. He is more interested in a photo opportunity portraying him as a “dealmaker” even when there is no substantive agreement.
Trump’s first term saw him embrace North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, whom he had previously threatened with “fire and fury” and denounced as “little rocket man”, to proclaim a breakthrough in stalled nuclear talks. There wasn’t anything beyond a meaningless one-page memorandum, but Trump became the first serving US president to step into North Korea and garnered international attention for doing so.
Then, at the start of his second term, Trump claimed he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine within 24 hours. But, more than four months later, he is frustrated and embittered. He recently called Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin “absolutely crazy”.
Trump also said he could resolve Israel’s assault on Gaza. He claimed the glory of a phase one ceasefire agreement in which Hamas freed some hostages in return for Israel releasing hundreds of Palestinians detained in its prisons. But he walked away when Netanyahu’s government refused to move to a second phase.
So now his hope, as outlandish as it might seem, is to appear alongside Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, or even the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, making some kind of deal.
What do the Gulf states hope for?
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are rivals of Iranian regional leadership, but they want to avoid Israeli military action against Tehran as this could spark a conflagration across the region.
They are looking to extract themselves from a decade-long war in Yemen, where their intervention has not toppled the Iran-backed Houthi insurgency. And they would like space for Syria to develop after five decades of Assad family rule came to an end in December 2024 – with possible profits for Gulf companies involved in recovery and reconstruction.
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Qatar, which Trump also visited in May, as well as Oman have long burnished their reputations as peace brokers. This has included facilitating talks between the US and Iran.
What is Iran’s position and how close is it to building a nuclear weapon?
When Iran agreed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) in 2015 with the UK and other world powers, it gave up any potential for a military nuclear programme. Enrichment of uranium was limited to 3.67%, and stocks of 20% grade were shipped out of the country. While uranium enriched to 20% is not weapons-grade, it shortens the time it will take to produce a nuclear weapon considerably.
It was Trump who allowed Iran to restart its nuclear programme when he pulled the US out of the JCPoA in May 2018 and imposed comprehensive sanctions six months later. Iran not only resumed 20% enrichment but began production of 60% uranium, which can be further enriched to the 90% required for military use.
Tehran is still stopping short of that 90% level. And it has said it will forego any potential for a military programme in a renewed agreement with the US, but is refusing US demands to end enrichment for civil purposes.
What might Israel do to disrupt the talks?
Netanyahu could defy Trump and order military strikes. But such action would further alienate Israel from the international community, unsettle relations with Washington, and risk regional conflicts that would overstretch the Israeli military.
Israeli intelligence and military institutions have opposed Netanyahu’s plans to attack Iran in the past, notably in 2010 and 2011. When he tried to lay the foundations for military action, they raised political, diplomatic and logistical obstacles that put an attack on hold.
And, despite Netanyahu’s attempts to replace intelligence heads and military commanders with his loyalists, the new appointees are still likely to take the same position.
For more than 15 years, Israel has pursued covert operations to disrupt Iran’s nuclear programme. These include sabotage, cyber-attacks, assassinations and explosions set off by agents inside Iran. Those operations have appeared to diminish in recent months, but they might be renewed without raising Trump’s ire.
How does the disagreement over Iran affect US-Israel relations, especially when it comes to Gaza?
We are in a world where Trump can hold back Netanyahu over Iran, but give him a blank cheque for the assault and starvation of Gaza.
Trump’s administration did nothing to oppose the Netanyahu government’s inevitable rejection of the phase two ceasefire in Gaza at the start of March. This subsequently saw renewed military operations and imposition of a blockade on humanitarian aid. Trump’s envoy, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, has been ineffectual in his purported mediation efforts.
Netanyahu has not only tabled the plan for Israel’s long-term occupation of Gaza, with four military zones and Gazans penned into three areas with limited movement. He has publicly embraced Trump’s proposal for the displacement – some would call it “ethnic cleansing” – of hundreds of thousands of Gazans.
In October 2024, Trump reportedly told Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” in the offensive against Hamas. Then, in mid-February, he said: “Bibi, you do whatever you want”.
So, even as Trump does what he wants over Iran to Netanyahu’s chagrin, the Israeli prime minister is finding that Trump is not restricting what he does closer to home in Gaza.
Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
