Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba stepped down less than two months after his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority in the upper house elections.
His resignation came amid mounting pressure from the party’s right-wing faction following July’s bruising vote, which reflected public dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living and sluggish economic growth.
The LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, fell short of the 50 seats needed to retain control, winning only 47, while far-right nationalist parties gained ground.
Ishiba held a press conference in Tokyo on Sunday evening, confirming that he would resign as party president but remain in office as prime minister until a new leader is elected.
Citing the conclusion of a trade deal with the US aimed at easing tariffs on Japanese imports, he described the timing as “right” for his departure and requested that the LDP’s general secretary begin organising a leadership election immediately.
The race to replace Ishiba has already begun, with a vote expected in early October 2025, according to an unnamed senior party official, Reuters reported.
Now, Japan is entering another period of political uncertainty. With the next general elections not due until 2028, the LDP’s choice of leader will influence not only domestic policy but also international relations, particularly trade, defence, and coalition management.
Who is vying for the leadership role?
Several high-profile figures are vying for leadership:
Shinjiro Koizumi: The 44-year-old son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, Shinjiro represents the LDP’s more liberal wing. He has expressed support for same-sex marriage and separate surnames for married couples, positions that distinguish him within the party.
As agriculture minister under Ishiba, he gained recognition for addressing rice price reforms. Koizumi’s charisma and popularity could help build coalitions, including support from the Japan Restoration Party. If elected, he would become Japan’s youngest-ever prime minister.
Sanae Takaichi: A conservative figure, Takaichi is a self-styled heir to Shinzo Abe’s legacy, advocating constitutional revisions to clarify the role of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces and emphasising a stronger military posture.
She opposes same-sex marriage and dual surnames, and likens her approach to Margaret Thatcher, calling for bold fiscal and monetary policies. A Takaichi premiership would mark Japan’s first female prime minister, but her hardline positions could challenge relations with coalition partner Komeito.
Toshimitsu Motegi: Former foreign minister Motegi officially entered the race shortly after Ishiba’s announcement. He cited his experience in government as a reason to help pull the LDP out of its current difficulties.
Yoshimasa Hayashi: Currently chief cabinet secretary, Hayashi is another potential contender, though his candidacy is not yet formally confirmed.
Polls suggest a close contest between Koizumi and Takaichi. A recent TBS poll shows both candidates at 19.3 per cent, while a Nikkei survey placed Takaichi marginally ahead at 23 per cent versus Koizumi’s 22 per cent.
How will the new leader be chosen?
The LDP can choose between two formats for selecting its president.
One option is a full-scale election. Lawmakers and rank-and-file members vote, each with equal weight in the first round. A simple majority secures victory; otherwise, a run-off occurs between the top two candidates. In the second round, rank-and-file influence decreases.
And then there is the option of a simplified election. Used in 2020 after Shinzo Abe’s resignation, this method restricts voting to LDP legislators and a few prefectural representatives, bypassing the broader membership.
Once the party selects a leader, the next step is the parliamentary vote.
Despite losing its majority, the LDP’s leader is likely to become prime minister, as the party remains the largest in the lower house, according to Reuters.
Lawmakers from both chambers vote, but the lower house holds the deciding power in case of disagreement. Candidates may also call a snap general election to secure a broader public mandate.
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