Indiana lawmakers' rejection of a plan to create two more Republican congressional seats Thursday delivered a blow to the White House's scramble to redistrict ahead of midterm elections, but the state isn't the only egg in President Trump's basket.
The big picture: Six states have already implemented new congressional maps, and more could follow.
- Republicans hold only a narrow lead in the House of Representatives, 220 seats to Democrats' 213, and the sitting president's party tends to lose seats in midterm elections.
- That means that control of the House could come down to just a few races.
- Projections for the six states that have essentially locked in their efforts — Texas, California, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina and Utah — show Republicans set to gain a net one to four seats in November and any gains from Democrats likely cancelled out by Republican wins.
Between the lines: Of the six, California and Utah were the only states where Republicans weren't favored in redistricting efforts.
- Democrat-led states are enacting their own redistricting in contrast to what the GOP is doing — and California did it successfully — but several Democratic leaders find their hands tied by independent redistricting commissions they had once championed.
Here's where redistricting efforts stand in each state:
Indiana
Indiana became the first state to formally reject a redistricting bid, with the state Senate voting 31-19 against it.
- 21 Republicans voted against the proposal in a rare pushback against Trump from within his party.
What they're saying: Indiana's decision might actually stop or "at least mitigate" redistricting in other states, Erik Nisbet, a professor of policy analysis and communication at Northwestern University, told Axios.
- "Trump's popularity is becoming a drag on Republicans, especially as Democrats hammer in on affordability," he said.
- "State legislatures are asking, 'is it worth it?' If we go through the midterms, this entire process, and potentially reorganize our state politics simply to gain one or two seats — what's the point?" he added.
- "Making Trump happy when our own political power is starting to be diminished?"
Republicans were favored to win two seats if lawmakers had moved forward with redistricting.
Texas
The U.S. Supreme Court this month permitted Texas to use its new congressional map favoring Republicans for now.
Context: Texas state lawmakers approved the redistricting process over the summer, which was later challenged by voting rights groups who alleged that the state racially gerrymandered to weaken the voting power of Black and Latino voters in the state.
- Federal judges in Texas blocked the map, which was temporarily reinstated in November by Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito.
- The Supreme Court only temporarily paused the lower court's ruling to give justices time to consider Texas' request.
Republicans are favored to win 4-5 seats.
North Carolina
North Carolina Republicans enacted its new map in October, which received the green light from a panel of federal judges a month later.
- Republicans are favored to gain 1 seat.
Ohio
A bipartisan redistricting commission in Ohio enacted a new map in October.
The intrigue: The bipartisan support marked a rare moment of compromise in a process that's been affected by controversy and court challenges for years.
- Republicans are favored to gain 2-3 seats.
California
California enacted a new map through a statewide ballot measure in November.
Flashback: Following Texas Republicans' own redistricting attempt, California Gov. Gavin Newsom threatened to move forward with the legislation, leading Democrats' charge in the state redistricting proxy wars.
- California essentially "neutralized" the Texas map, Nisbet said.
- Democrats are favored to gain five seats, effectively cancelling out the projected wins for Republicans in Texas.
Utah
A Utah district court judge ordered the state legislature to redraw congressional lines, saying the current map violated aspects of an anti-gerrymandering measure, giving Democrats the ability to gain one seat.
- The change favors Democrats.
- Democrats are favored to gain 1-2 seats.
Missouri
Missouri lawmakers enacted a new map in September.
- The Republican-controlled Senate aimed to unseat Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) by splitting the state's fifth congressional district, which Cleaver is currently representing for his tenth term.
- Cleaver said in September that he plans to challenge the revised map in court and seek reelection.
- Republicans are favored to gain 1 seat.
Maryland
A legislative proposal has been introduced in Maryland.
Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson urged Senate Democrats in October against mid-cycle redistricting, calling it "too risky" for the party, who could end up losing a seat by attempting to gain one.
- Democrats are favored to gain 1 seat.
Virginia
Virginia's state legislature has begun the process to redraw its map and put it up for statewide referendum, following a judge's approval in October.
- If both chambers of the state legislature pass a proposed amendment and it gets a majority approval from Virginia voters, new seats are in play for midterm elections.
- A referendum can only happen 90 days after an amendment passes in the state, which means voting as early as next April.
- Lawmakers would then have to redraw maps before early voting begins.
- Democrats are favored to gain 2-3 seats.
Florida
Florida's state legislature established a redistricting committee in August.
- Earlier this month, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) broached the possibility of calling lawmakers back in a special session if they do not finish redistricting in their regular session, which is scheduled for Jan. 13 to March 13.
- Republicans are favored to gain 2-4 seats.
Kansas
Kansas' top Republicans were aligned with Trump's redistricting agenda, but efforts in the state to redraw the map are stalled due to some GOP opposition.
- Republicans are favored to gain 1 seat.
Wisconsin
The Wisconsin Supreme Court last month ordered a pair of three-judge panels to oversee two lawsuits alleging that the state's current map is unconstitutional and seeking a redraw it.
- One panel expedited one of the cases on Friday.
- If the panel issues a ruling by around March 1, the deadline given by the state elections commission in order to have new maps in place, Democrats could stand to gain seats in the midterm elections.
- 2 seats are considered competitive in the state.
Other states in play
State of play: Leaders in Alabama, Illinois, Louisiana, New York, Nebraska, and North Dakota, have all indicated that they might pursue redistricting.
- Alabama and Louisiana are both awaiting a U.S. Supreme Court verdict on a Louisiana case that targets the Voting Rights Act, a crucial tool for challenging racially discriminatory maps.
- North Dakota is awaiting a decision on a separate U.S. Supreme Court case.
- Nebraska, Illinois, and New York's governors have also indicated interest in or pushed for redistricting in their respective states.
State leaders in Illinois and New York have both said they would pursue redistricting if Republicans do first.
