Rainfall in April has been below average and it looks set to stay dry for the rest of the month and into the start of April. In some areas of the UK, it is down by as much as 70% compared to the norm for the time of year.
Welsh forecaster Derek Brockway says there will be "more dry, settled weather" over the next few days because of the high pressure sitting over the north of the UK. But there could be a little rain in some parts of Wales on Sunday.
And the Met Office long-range forecast is showing very little rain, with just the chance of some showers in the west in the first part of May. The UK forecast for Sunday, May 1, to Tuesday, May 10, says: "Throughout the start of May, much of the south is likely to see continuing dry and sunny spells. Parts of the north and west are more likely to experience cloudier conditions, with spells of mainly light rain or showers at times."
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Winds are expected to remain light and temperatures staying above average for most, during the time period. The forecast up for Wednesday, May 11, says that "settled conditions" look likely to continue dominating through first part of May across southern areas of the UK, with clear or sunny spells.
But the Met Office says it looks like it will turn more unsettled by the middle of May with "showers and rain across much of the country." It is still going to be warm, and the forecast says: " The odd drier spell is still possible, as is usual for late spring, although mostly likely for the north. Temperatures should stay above normal for all areas, with an increased chance of warm spells."
The BBC's UK forecast for next week says: "There should see a more settled pattern from around Thursday with changeable temperatures that should warm above average later in the week." Its long-range forecast for Monday, May 9, to Sunday, May 22, says: "Towards mid-May, low pressure should be a common feature across the northeast Atlantic while pressure is higher common across Greenland to the Barents Sea and across eastern Europe. This would bring a near seasonal temperature and precipitation pattern across the country. An average wind pattern is probable across England and Wales.
"Further ahead, confidence is low with all the models performing poorly. We favour high pressure across eastern Europe and Scandinavia and low pressure across the north Atlantic. This would bring slightly mild temperatures across Northern Ireland, Wales and England. Nearer seasonal temperatures across Scotland. Some windy days are likely across Northern Ireland and Scotland, but extreme events are not expected.
"There are certainly other scenarios possible over the latter part of the forecast. High pressure could be favoured further east, allowing Atlantic lows more influence across Europe. This would be a more unsettled pattern. We estimate this risk at 40%."
Tracey Dunford, Natural Resources Wales’ lead specialist planner, water resources, said: "We work with Welsh Government, water companies and other organisations to make sure that there is enough water available for people, for businesses and agriculture, as well as for our environment.
“Wales has had a period of dry weather recently, with some rivers across Wales low for the time year, with others within their normal range. We currently do not have any immediate concerns about water supply or for the environment.
“However, spring is critical period for fish migration and land management, including agriculture. We are closely monitoring the situation by regularly checking rainfall, river, groundwater and reservoir levels, as well as soil moisture deficit.
“Our teams on the ground will also report any dry weather related incidents and water companies and other organisations give us regular updates on water supply or other emerging concerns to help us assess the situation. People can report any concerns to our incident hotline on 03000 65 3000 or visit naturalresources.wales/reportit
"We will communicate any changes to the water situation, including any potential impacts.”
