NFL minicamps have started, and with them, the annual slate of players who want better contracts and are not afraid of showing it by holding out of training camp. While these mini-holdouts rarely ever materialize into full-blown regular-season holdouts, it’s always possible that a team could call a player’s bluff only to realize that they are, in fact, not bluffing.
It usually doesn’t ever work out in favor of the player (look at Le’Veon Bell, for instance), but NFL players don’t tend to care about the potential for failure; they are supremely arrogant beings, and I say that in the best possible way. Their arrogance and sheer belief in themselves are truly inspiring, even if it is inherently irrational. These players are able to look billionaires in the eyes and tell them “no.” Which is nearly unheard of nowadays.
These players, for a myriad of reasons, believe, rightly or wrongly, that they deserve more and are willing to put their careers on the line to get it. It would be great if that were all they put on the line. Unfortunately, when it comes to potential holdouts, it’s not just their careers at stake. An entire franchise with millions of fans worldwide and billions of hours of emotional stress is on the line whenever one of these players holds out.
We know from history that a holdout could absolutely crush an entire franchise and with it the hopes and dreams of each of their fans. Here are the players and franchises that could crush people’s dreams this year.
Micah Parsons, EDGE, Cowboys
Status: At camp, but not participating
My apologies to any Jerry World fans out there for what I’m about to say, but it’s absolutely the truth: The Cowboys have the worst front office in the league when it comes to negotiations and re-signing players. They’re decent at drafting and player development, which is why they still manage to win games despite only having six homegrown players not on their rookie deals. Those six guys also cost a whopping $148 million per year, which is more than half of the current $279 million salary cap.
The Cowboys wait way too long to sign their own guys to extensions, leading to a dramatic contract showdown, players sitting out, and inevitably the Cowboys forking over more money than that player had any right to make. That seems to be what is happening here with Micah Parsons. While it’s likely that the contract will get done eventually, there is a non-zero chance that this negotiation drags into the regular season, and Parsons elects to sit out the first few games until it gets worked out.
It would be a protest that would absolutely light up the sports world, likely resulting in overwhelming calls for Jerry Jones to relinquish the role of GM and hand team operations to someone younger. Would Jones actually do that? Probably not, but regardless of what he does, the failure to extend Parsons before the season would create turmoil at every level of the organization and likely kill their season before it even starts.
After a disappointing season where they lost their QB for half the year (he was only 3-5 before getting hurt though, so the injury isn’t much of an excuse for the team’s woes), the Cowboys must get off to a fast start to shake off the funk of last season and create momentum. If they lose their defensive engine and best player due to the front office’s failures, that will demoralize not just the fans but the players, coaches, and staff throughout the organization. It would be an absolute disaster.
Obviously missing Parsons production (52.5 sacks, 63 TFLs, and 112 QB hits over his first four seasons) would suck, but the symbolic impact would likely be even worse for a franchise that hasn’t gotten past the divisional round of the playoffs since 1995.
Trey Hendrickson, EDGE, Bengals
Status: Holding out of camp officially
Of all the contract negotiations, this one might have the highest chance of ending with a holdout. Hendrickson and the Bengals front office haven’t really seen eye to eye since they signed him in 2021, even though he’s put up four straight Pro Bowl seasons for them and earned 57 total sacks over those seasons. Hendrickson led the league in sacks last year with 17.5 and will likely be looking at money that will put him in the top three highest-paid pass rushers in the league, if not number one.
The Bengals clearly knew that the Hendrickson situation was volatile, so they did add some insurance at the edge rusher spot over the past few years, including Joseph Ossai, Myles Murphy, and Shemar Stewart (although he’s also threatening to hold out). This gives them a little depth to work with if they had to play without Hendrickson, but it still wouldn’t be ideal. This team was terrible on defense, even with his 17.5 sacks; without him, their defense could potentially sink their season once again!
T.J. Watt, EDGE, Steelers
Status: Skipping camp
Watt and the Steelers are currently negotiating a contract extension, but according to cryptic messages online, T.J. Watt isn’t super happy about where things stand right now. He has completely skipped minicamp so far, and things don’t seem to be moving much in the background. This is looking like it could be a long holdout with a potential for him to miss parts of the season if things don’t start moving fast.
The Steelers spent most of the offseason courting Aaron Rodgers and shuffling around receivers. They seemed to forget their most dominant(and marketable) player! Watt is now frustrated, and I can’t blame him. He may be on the wrong side of 30 now, but he put up 11.5 sacks last year and led the league in sacks with 19 in 2023. He’s obviously got a lot left in the tank and expects to have a few more contracts after this one.
When you compare his numbers to those of another edge rusher from the 2017 draft class, Myles Garrett, who recently became the highest-paid edge rusher in the league with a 40 million per year contract, you see why this contract could be giving Pittsburgh headaches. Watt has 5.5 more sacks than Garrett, 10 more TFLs, and 25 more QB hits. The numbers are pretty clear: Watt deserves a 40+ million dollar contract.
If he doesn’t get it, though, the Steelers could mitigate his absence at least somewhat. With Alex Highsmith, Cam Heyward, and two rookies in Derrick Harmon and Jack Sawyer, it’s not like the Steelers will be all out of pass rushers, but they sure could use T.J. Watt as they look for another 9+ win season.
Elgton Jenkins, C, Packers
Status: At camp, but not participating
The Packers are light on impactful starting offensive linemen seemingly every season, but somehow always manage to have one of the better lines in the game. Jenkins has been a big factor in that. The versatile guard has been extremely consistent for the Packers and provided plug-and-play ability at nearly every spot on the line. Now he is set to take over the center spot from Josh Myers, who left for the Jets this offseason.
Jenkins is (rightly) concerned that this switch to full-time center will hurt him financially moving forward. He wants to lock in guard money now rather than try his chance in free agency as a center. I don’t think he will succeed in that quest, but he could still get decent top-end center money in this negotiation, as he holds quite a bit of leverage as the only viable option to play that position on the entire roster.
If he were to hold out, it would likely hamstring a Packers running game that is critical to an offense that relies on it to take the pressure off of Jordan Love and that stable of young receivers.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Dolphins
Status: Skipping camp
Jonnu Smith wants a pay increase due to his role as the only legitimate pass-catching tight end on the roster and his breakout season with the club last year, in which he caught 88 passes for 884 yards and eight touchdowns. The problem is that Smith is coming up on his 30th birthday and is entering his ninth season (side note: does anyone else think it’s crazy that he caught 88 passes for 880 yards and eight touchdowns during his eighth season, or is it just me).
Based on his importance to the team and his production last year, Smith is absolutely in the right to ask for a raise, but it’s yet to be determined whether the Dolphins see him in their long-term plans. Either way, his not playing this year would be a gut punch to the Dolphins, who were able to rely on him for steady production when guys like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were inconsistent.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders
Status: Officially holding out of camp
The Commanders understand the value that McLaurin brings to their offense; he’s the centerpiece of that unit and has been so for six years (the last five seasons being 1000+ yard seasons). He’s a critical piece that they can’t afford to lose for a season in which they hope to avoid a sophomore slump from quarterback Jayden Daniels and make a return to the NFC Championship game.
Those hopes become much harder without scary Terry, but it’s doubtful that he will actually hold out (especially for the entire season/playoffs). The Commanders are already saying the right things, talking about how they want to make him a commander for life and whatnot. It seems as though they are on a path to get a deal done before things get out of control.
Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Bengals
Status: Reported to camp, but then left
This might be the most interesting potential holdout. The rookie edge rusher has turned the rookie contract negotiations — which are usually just a formality and don’t tend to be very dramatic — into a potential holdout. According to Stewart, the language in his contract is not the standard language given to past Bengals rookies and may result in guaranteed money being voided in the backend of his deal.
Stewart seems very determined and unwavering in this fight saying that he’s “100% right” and that the Bengals are “more concerned about winning arguments instead of games” which is a sick burn, but maybe not the best thing to say about the team that just drafted you with the 17th overall pick in the draft. Even if this resolves itself, seeing how this goes over with his future teammates and coaches will be interesting.
Stewart may have to be a large piece of this defense that struggled last year because of Hendrickson’s potential holdout. If he’s seen as a distraction or not a team player, it could impact his usage and his overall impact within the unit. It’s the last thing the Bengals need right now on the defensive side, and it could be an omen for another disappointing season.
