France and Saudi Arabia are convening dozens of world leaders in New York on Monday to rally support for a two-state solution, with several of them expected to formally recognise a Palestinian state, a day after Australia, Canada, Portugal and the UK made their own formal declarations.
Why are more countries recognising Palestinian statehood?
The coordinated action is part of an attempt to preserve and nurture the vision of a two-state solution in which the state of Palestine coexists next to Israel. It also represents a rebuke to Israel and the US for the relentless assault on Gaza and an objection to the annexation of the West Bank.
There are genuine fears that Israel is about to annex the West Bank or make Gaza so uninhabitable that Palestinians are forced over the borders into Jordan or Egypt, so destroying the possibility of a Palestinian homeland. Recognition that Palestine is a state with the right to self-determination is an attempt to show Israel cannot simply annex land that the international court of justice has declared to be illegally occupied.
What does recognition rest on and what does it entail practically?
Recognition of the existence of a state rests on four criteria set out in the 1933 Montevideo convention: a permanent population, a defined territory, an ability to hold diplomatic relations with other nations, and a government. Even if some of those features are threatened or disputed – as in Palestine, where large parts are occupied and the government recognised by countries such as the UK has no real authority in Gaza – the state can still be recognised: in the end, doing so is a political choice.
In the case of Palestine, recognition is largely symbolic. As the then foreign secretary, David Lammy, said when the UK’s position was announced earlier this year: “It will not change the position on the ground.”
Nevertheless, it allows nations to enter treaties with Palestine and would mean that Palestinian heads of mission become fully recognised ambassadors. Some argue that a greater onus is placed on countries that recognise Palestine to boycott goods imported into them by Israel that come from the occupied territories.
But overall, recognition is seen more as a statement on Palestine’s future, and disapproval of Israel’s refusal to negotiate a Palestinian state.
What other countries currently recognise statehood in some form?
Before Sunday’s announcements the state of Palestine was recognised by more than 140 of the 193 member states of the UN. The total is now 151.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has led the current drive for recognition. By the end of this week four of the five permanent members of the UN security council will recognise Palestine. The US as the fifth UN security council member can continue to veto Palestine obtaining voting rights at the UN. It currently has speaking rights.
Why is Monday’s two-state solution conference particularly significant?
The conference is the culmination of months of diplomatic work led by Saudi Arabia and France sketching out what Gaza could look like after the war, including in the now widely supported New York declaration. It will be a moment of high emotion for all sides.
The conference statement includes a commitment endorsed by the Arab League that Hamas would not play any role in the future governance of Gaza, and that a UN-mandated international peace force would maintain security before a full takeover by a vetted Palestinian police force.
What do opponents of recognising statehood say?
There are two different criticisms. Israel and the US claim that recognition is a reward for the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023. Israel also claims the Palestinian Authority leadership is endemically corrupt, repressive and that the promise to hold elections has been repeatedly made, only to be deferred. They claim no partner for peace exists.
A second criticism is that the two-state solution has become a diplomatic fig leaf, and a relic of the past dating back to the 1993 Oslo accords that proposed a Palestinian state on 1967 borders. These critics argue the emotions ingrained by 7 October mean support for the concept has drained away on both sides of the divide.
In a new book, Tomorrow is Yesterday, two veteran negotiators – Robert Malley and Hussein Agha – describe the two-state solution as a meaningless distraction and a performative notion used by diplomats for 30 years to avoid finding real solutions. They say without practical steps to force Israel engage, “the offer of recognition won’t change the life of a single Palestinian”.
