Financial forecasts from the second quarter are anxiously awaited by council leaders and their senior executives, especially in those authorities where the 2011-12 budget was always going to be a challenge to deliver.
Questions are being asked across local government and the wider public sector as the full impact of the severest public expenditure cuts in more than 80 years becomes clear. Are councils securing the revenue they expected from increased charges? Are cuts and redundancy programmes going to plan? Has there been any unexpected pressure on spending programmes, and what can be done to correct this? What reserves do we have available, and how long will they last? Are there unintended consequences for the authority and other agencies?
These are important questions, and in most authorities there should be no surprises as financial management will be well tuned. But some leaders and their senior executives – particularly chief executives and finance directors – know that some of their budgets were based on a hope and prayer as much as robust financial planning.
Equally important now is to ensure there is a full understanding of the impact of cuts. Councils should act as a community leader, undertaking a comprehensive assessment of the impact to all local public services, including those made by central government. These studies should embrace issues such as employment, communities, services, social and economic wellbeing, inward investment, the voluntary sector, community cohesion and public opinion. Public confidence – even "happiness" – is crucial to measure.
This list is not exhaustive, and there is scope for additional indices. Local organisations, including trade unions, employers and businesses, faith groups, the third sector and community groups, and, most importantly, the public as service users and citizens, must all be involved.
Ideally, these assessments would identify the longer term consequences of cuts, for example in services such as Sure Start or preventive health programmes. They should not be simply an interesting academic exercise. There will be few, if any, easy budget options for future years, so difficult, perhaps unpalatable, decisions will have to be made.
Evidence-based assessment should be used as much as the analysis of the financial state of individual authorities to shape strategic approaches for longer term budgeting and planning. They can be a powerful tool for politicians, who ultimately have to make political, not technocratic, decisions.
These assessments should stimulate public debate about the consequences and wisdom of local and national government policies. Such a political debate is desperately needed.
John Tizard is director of the Centre for Public Service Partnerships and a member of the Guardian local government network editorial board
This content is brought to you by Guardian Professional. Join the local government network for more like this direct to your inbox
