After a stream of policy announcements over several months, Shabana Mahmood has unveiled a white paper outlining changes that will affect every police force across England and Wales – and could well abolish most of them.
The home secretary’s department has described it as the biggest overhaul of policing since the service was founded two centuries ago.
What are the major changes?
The white paper, entitled From Local to National: a New Model for Policing, outlines policies that will include:
A reduction in the number of police forces from the current 43 by 2034 – a review will determine the details.
An FBI-style National Police Service to lead on terrorism, fraud and organised crime.
The launch of local policing areas in every borough city and town, with officers focusing on neighbourhood policing.
Giving home secretaries the power to sack chief constables.
Every police officer in England and Wales to be made to hold a “licence to serve” – and asked to face regular tests.
A fast track for professionals and experts so they can take senior police roles.
A new police commander to lead on violent disorder and rioting.
A new national forensics team to help catch rapists and murderers.
A national rollout of live facial recognition technology, increasing the number of vans from 10 to 50.
Police and crime commissioners to be scrapped in 2028.
Why restructure the police and cut the number of forces?
Perhaps the most ambitious proposal in the document is merging forces, which will save billions of pounds, officials said.
Money currently being spent on replicating backroom services such as human resources, payroll and IT could be diverted to frontline services instead.
Each force will be divided into local policing areas where neighbourhood officers will be responsible for dealing with shoplifting, phone theft and antisocial behaviour.
Will this work?
Home Office sources point out that Police Scotland, established in 2013 through the merger of eight regional forces, saved an estimated £2bn through reductions in staff and officer numbers, efficiencies and improved working practices.
Critics say that the prospect of doing the same with 43 forces will be a much more daunting challenge and will require a new set of arrangements for funding and governance. There will also have to be a cash injection, which the Treasury may be reluctant to pay for.
Labour tried, and failed to institute similar reforms the last time it was in power. The home secretary at the time, Charles Clarke, wanted to scrap more than 20 forces but the plans were dropped after lobbying from MPs and local police chiefs.
Who will object?
There is expected to be resistance from rural politicians, opposition parties and senior officers from smaller forces which will disappear in the reorganisation. Senior police officers have suggested that forces could be cut to 12 in total.
Questions raised include whether such reforms will mean that the policing needs of rural areas will be sidelined for towns and cities.
The Conservatives have claimed that there is a lack of evidence to show that cutting the number of forces makes any difference to cutting crime.
Why launch a new national force?
According to the Home Office, the National Police Service (NPS) will bring the capabilities of the National Crime Agency, counter-terrorism policing, regional organised crime units, police helicopters and national road policing under a single organisation.
Home Office sources said that some forces have not been capable of dealing with serious and organised crime such as trafficking, drug dealing or financial crime, and have too often fallen back on the expertise of the Met.
Organised crime is now highly professionalised and run by international networks, officials have said, so the police should change their structures to match them.
Will it work?
This is the third attempt to launch an FBI-style organisation. In 2006, Labour introduced the Serious and Organised Crime Agency. The coalition government replaced it with the National Crime Agency.
Senior police officers are concerned that another reorganisation could soon be undone by a new government. A concentration of capabilities into one major force could also allow an interfering home secretary to meddle in operational matters, sources have said.
When will the changes be implemented?
The major changes of force mergers and the introduction of the NPS will take years to come to fruition, by which time there may well be another home secretary or government in power. So they could be dropped.
Mergers will start with a consultation and a test merger in the hope that broad consensus can be found rather than a clash.
Will other changes face objections?
Yes. MPs have already voiced objections to a national deployment of live facial recognition technology, with some pointing out that the Home Office has admitted the current system is more likely to incorrectly identify black and Asian people than their white counterparts on some settings.
The Police Federation has expressed concerns over the introduction of a licence to practise, saying it must be backed with improved training.
Will Labour MPs support the measures?
Privately, some Labour MPs have said the reforms may have great importance to police officers and politicians, who have pointed out structural failings for years, but are not vote winners and will occupy civil servants and senior officers for years.
“These may be necessary reforms in the long run but they might not be good politics, given our position in the polls,” a former minister said.
