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The National (Scotland)
The National (Scotland)
Sport
Alasdair Ferguson

What does Scotland need against Brazil to qualify for World Cup knockouts?

Scotland head to Miami to face Brazil needing a point to guarantee qualification (Image: PA)

SCOTLAND’S World Cup fate hangs in the balance as they take on one of the tournament's favourites, Brazil, on Wednesday in their last match of the group stage.

Steve Clarke’s men have been revelling in their first World Cup tournament in 28 years as they beat Haiti in their opening match 1-0, thanks to a first-half John McGinn strike.

The Tartan Army’s celebrations were in full swing last week following Scotland’s first win at the tournament since 1990, but were then brought back down to Earth with a bump after a frustrating 1-0 loss to Morocco on Friday.

Sitting third in Group C, Clarke’s side will take on Brazil on Wednesday as Scotland looks to create history and qualify for the knockout stage of the World Cup for the first time.

What does Scotland need to do to qualify?

The obvious answer is they could beat Brazil and guarantee qualification.

However, the last time the two sides met was in 1998, when the South American team won 2-1. The two sides have faced off numerous times, but Scotland have never won against Brazil.

Scotland could also draw the match against Carlo Ancelotti’s men, which should also all but guarantee qualification.

Clarke was also likely aiming for a draw against Morocco, but was ultimately undone by a goal within the first two minutes of the game.

In the result of a loss against Brazil, Scotland could still qualify as one of the best third-place finishers thanks to the tournament's expansion from the traditional 32 teams to 48.

Eight of the best third-placed teams will go through to the knockouts, and with Scotland securing three points against Haiti, they are on track to clinch one of those spots.

However, if Scotland aims to qualify in third place, goal difference will be key.

John McGinn celebrates on the field after Scotland's 1-0 win over Haiti in their opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. (Image: Andrew Milligan/PA wire)

Clarke’s side is currently sitting with a goal difference of zero, meaning a 1-0 loss to Brazil could still be enough to see them through. Conceding anymore would drastically slash Scotland’s chances of qualifying.

Only Sweden is ahead of Scotland in the third-place qualifying spots, as they have scored more goals, with Paraguay also sitting on three points but have conceded more goals than Scotland.

With the majority of teams already having played two games, Scotland looks in a relatively good spot to qualify, but will need to contain Brazil to as few goals as possible.

If Scotland do make it out of the group who could they play?

If Scotland are able to make history and make it out of the World Cup group stages for the very first time, they could face a number of opponents based on group finishes.

If the miraculous were to happen and Scotland qualified top of their group, they would have to beat Brazil and Haiti would have to cause a huge upset and either beat or draw against Morocco, and then Clarke’s side would face the runner-up from Group F in the last 32.

Vinicius Jnr celebrates scoring for Brazil against Haiti on Friday night (Image: PA)

The winners of Scotland’s group would go on to face either the Netherlands, Japan or Sweden on Monday, June 29, in Texas at 6pm.

However, if Scotland finishes in third, the most likely scenario, they would face off against either the winners of Group A, E, or I, which includes potential opponents such as Mexico, Germany, Norway and France.

As it stands, Mexico sit top of their group with six points as they take on the Czech Republic in their final game, with South Korea sitting in second on three points.

Germany sit on top of Group E after two wins, and could see the Tartan Army return to Boston as that game would also be hosted in the city on June 29.

Scotland Fans during the FIFA World Cup Group C match at the Boston Stadium, Foxborough. Picture date: Friday June 19, 2026. (Image: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire/PA Images)

Meanwhile, both Norway and France are on three points in Group I.

Most Scotland fans would likely fancy playing Norway over France as Clarke’s side was able to get the best of the Norwegian’s during the Euro 2024 qualifiers beating them 2-1 the last time they faced off.

France were runners up at the last World Cup as they eventually lost to Argentina on penalties in Qatar.

The match against the Group I winners would take place on June 30 in New Jersey.

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