For the first time all college football season, Ohio State is on the outside looking in when it comes to being ranked in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings.
But it’s close.
The Buckeyes are No. 5, one spot behind a one-loss USC team that has another game to play when it takes on Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game.
Besides that, TCU sits at No. 3 and also has to win one more game against a Kansas State team that gave the Horned Frogs all they could handle in October. The winner will be crowned Big 12 champ. For both USC and TCU, a loss would mean the résumés will be compared against Ohio State’s with a razor-thin margin.
With these sorts of things, we often like to confer with the popular analytics website, FiveThirtyEight, to see what their playoff model thinks Ohio State’s chances of making the College Football Playoff are.
At this point, the number of teams still alive has been pared to five, really, with a very, very outside shot of including Alabama as a sixth team, but that cream-and-crimson ship has likely sailed with the Tide being a two-loss team without a conference championship.
There aren’t a ton of variables in this thing, but here is what FiveThirtyEight says about Ohio State’s chances of making the CFP when looking at a few possible results.
First, we’ll deal with just the top six teams’ straight percentage chances of getting in without taking anything else into consideration.
NEXT … Chances of top teams making the College Football Playoff
No. 6 - Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
9% (⇑)
Chances if win out
N/A
No. 5 - Ohio State (11-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
32% (⇓)
Chances if win out
N/A
No. 4 - USC Trojans (11-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
47% (⇑)
Chances if win out
98%
No. 3 - TCU Horned Frogs (12-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
70% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 2 - Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
92% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 1 - Michigan Wolverines (12-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
96% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
Now, all of that is fine and good, but what happens when one or more of the teams above Ohio State lose in their respective conference championship games? As you can see below, Michigan and Georgia are pretty much locked in no matter what happens. But, if TCU or USC lose, well — then it opens the door a little more for the Buckeyes.
NEXT … Model changes with one or more of the top teams losing in their conference championship games.
If Michigan loses to Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game
Updated Playoff Chances
Michigan | 67%
Georgia | 93%
TCU | 70%
USC | 46%
Ohio State | 39%
Alabama | 15%
If Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC Championship game
Updated Playoff Chances
Michigan | 96%
Georgia | 64%
TCU | 71%
USC | 48%
Ohio State | 42%
Alabama | 8%
If TCU loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game
Updated Playoff Chances
Michigan | 96%
Georgia | 93%
TCU | 31%
USC | 47%
Ohio State | 38%
Alabama | 14%
If USC loses to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game
Updated Playoff Chances
Michigan | 97%
Georgia | 94%
TCU | 74%
USC | <1%
Ohio State | 45%
Alabama | 13%
If TCU and USC both lose
Updated Playoff Chances
Michigan | 97%
Georgia | 93%
TCU | 38%
USC | <1%
Ohio State | 46%
Alabama | 19%
This would be the best-case scenario for Ohio State, but there are no guarantees in any of this when you’re talking about what the CFP committee will do. You can play around with the model yourself by heading over to FiveThirtyEight for different scenarios, but if you’re looking for what will get the Buckeyes in, we’ve covered what is most likely. Of course, this is all predicated on your faith in what FiveThirtyEight uses for all of this, but either way, it’s fun to think about, and at least there’s a chance still.
