Week 15 CFP Bubble Watch: Resume vs metrics

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. If you’ve been reading through my Eliminator articles, you’d know that I still count eight teams with a shot at reaching the College Football Playoff. I eliminated Oregon on Tuesday night, though that was after the last article published.

Now that teams have played enough games, we can get a real look at every team’s resume. So, for the eight teams still alive, I am going to present all of the resumes to you. Additionally, I will show the resumes for Cincinnati and Boise State, in case that determines the Cotton Bowl. We’re going to look at every resume so that we can compare what positives and negatives each team has. It’s the easiest and best way to understand what each team is bringing to the table in the College Football Playoff discussion.

Right now, it looks like Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson have the top three spots locked down. Looking at the resumes will show why Ohio State and LSU can easily survive a loss this week. Clemson with a loss, though, is a bit more iffy. And, of course, the resumes will tell us who has the best shot at finishing No. 4.

How this works

Let’s go over what I’m looking at and why.

Quality of wins

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between No. 24 and No. 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (CFP, AP, or Amway Coaches), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. Moreover, it just makes sense. The committee is aware of who is a good team and what counts as a win of decent quality, even if that team didn’t quite make it into the rankings.

I also split up every game each team has played into different groups. The groupings are important. First of all, I focus on Top 10 and Top 25 wins. These are, obviously, the quality wins. Next, I’m looking for teams in the Top 40. These are solid wins and deserve respect. The next group is teams somewhere between 41st and 80th in FBS. These are mediocre teams–they are games that any Playoff contender should win, but could in theory lose on an off day. Everyone outside the Top 80 is a complete cupcake game, and should be valued as a negative. To determine where each team is and who is outside the Top 80, I use a collection of computer rankings that focus on different things (e.g. Sagarin and Anderson) to get broad perspectives on who is a cupcake and who isn’t.

The selection committee has consistently mentioned “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric over the past few years, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record. Again, even though the metric is a stupid one–there are cupcakes with +.500 records (for example, Buffalo or Western Kentucky)–the committee cares about it, so we have to as well.

Offensive and defensive performance

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On one hand, the resume focuses on which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.
Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

SOS range

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, especially as different rankings favor different things. They do, however, give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is. SOS Ranges could still be wide in some cases, but in general they should narrow a bit over the next few weeks. Still, different methodologies can lead to some very different types of SOS numbers, and getting the full range presents a more accurate picture.

Next… Teams that control their own destinies

Teams that are Playoff locks if they win out

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Ohio State	2-0	2-0	2-0	3-0	3-0	5-25	7	6.9 (5)	3.5 (1)

The Buckeyes are almost unmatched in the combined metrics. Now the Buckeyes are also unmatched in resume as well. The SOS numbers are great, and both Indiana and FAU currently fall into the Top 40 range. People often ask “why play the game” when hearing that the Buckeyes could survive a loss this week and get in the Playoff. But look at this resume. Add a loss to it, and then compare it to any other one-loss resume on this board. No one else is even close to this, which is why Ohio State is essentially a Playoff lock at this point.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
LSU	2-0	1-0	2-0	3-0	4-0	3-40	7	7.6 (2)	5.0 (28)

LSU’s resume is excellent. Solid SOS, five Top 40 wins, and a whopping seven wins over teams with winning records. The defensive numbers are still improving, and LSU’s defense has always got the stops it needed when necessary. LSU is likely in with one loss, let alone undefeated. And, again, comparing this resume to other one-loss teams like Utah, Oklahoma, and Baylor shows exactly why.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Clemson	0-0	0-0	3-0	3-0	5-0	60-90	4	7.0 (4)	3.6 (2)

Clemson’s resume is improving, but still awful by usual Playoff standards. Louisville and Wake Forest are both currently Top 40 wins, though I doubt the committee will quite view them that way. This resume has an ugly five cupcakes and bad SOS numbers, which won’t get significantly better even with a win over Virginia. Of course, the metrics show why Clemson is a top team. That probably won’t be enough to overcome this resume with a loss this weekend, though.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Georgia	1-0	2-0	1-0	4-1	3-0	20-40	7	6.1 (33)	4.0 (3)

This resume is very strong. The loss to South Carolina is bad, but is easily outweighed by a resume that is really only surpassed by LSU’s and Ohio State’s. It makes perfect sense that the committee ranked Georgia at No. 4, and the Bulldogs are a Playoff lock if they can beat LSU. If we get a bit of chaos, Georgia should be considered for the No. 4 spot for keeping it close against LSU. No other potential bubble team has a collection of wins this good.

Next… Teams that are on the bubble

On the Bubble:

These teams will be shown in where they sit on the bubble. That fact is determined by the strength of the resume if the team in question wins out, not by where it is currently.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Oklahoma	1-0	1-0	2-1	3-0	4-0	20-75	4	8.0 (1)	5.1 (35)

The SOS numbers are dragged down by Colley’s pure wins-and-losses numbers, but the overall resume is strong. Two ranked wins and five Top 40 wins, with the chance at another upcoming That’s better than what Utah is bringing to the table. Right now, Oklahoma is held back by barely beating teams. We’ll see if that lasts, though. The committee finally stopped holding it against Baylor last week.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Utah	0-0	0-1	1-0	7-0	3-0	40-80	4	6.6 (13)	4.2 (4)

This is one of the weakest overall SOS profiles in the Pac 12. Utah is winning games convincingly, and the metrics reflect that, but I’m looking at this resume and think that Utah has to be in big trouble when compared with Oklahoma. Other than winning by more points, what on here tells us that this resume is anywhere close to Oklahoma’s? Or Baylor’s?

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Baylor	0-1	1-0	3-0	2-0	5-0	40-85	4	6.3 (20)	4.6 (11)

The fact that Baylor has played four Top 40 teams makes this seem like a decent resume. But those SOS numbers are just ugly. Baylor sits over 20 spots behind Oklahoma in almost every SOS metric, and it’s not like the Sooners played a good nonconference slate either. The very fact that Baylor can play five Top 40 teams and still barely crack the Top 40 in any SOS metric tells us just how awful the cupcakes that Baylor has played are. On pure resume, this looks like a decent one-loss picture. But the Bears are being punished for an awful nonconference schedule, and it’s hard to blame the committee for it.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Wisconsin	0-1	3-0	0-0	3-1	4-0	10-40	4	6.4 (16)	4.5 (8)

Wisconsin added a win over Minnesota, but the win over Michigan fell out of the Top 10 range. A win over Ohio State would make this a pretty good profile. Is it enough to jump Clemson if the Tigers lose to Virginia? That’s the question. The answer isn’t likely yes, but it’s not a definite no at this point.

Next… Boise State vs Cincinnati

Cotton Bowl Race:

The committee currently has Cincinnati one spot behind Boise State. If Memphis wins the AAC Championship Game, then the Tigers will play in the Cotton Bowl. What if Cincinnati wins? Let’s compare the resumes. (Remember, these are the resumes at this moment, so Boise State would be adding a win over Hawaii, and Cincinnati would be adding a win over Memphis.)

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Cincinnati	0-1	0-1	2-0	3-0	4-0	30-70	4	5.3 (86)	5.0 (31)

UCF has spoiled us the past few years, but this is a typically strong Group of 5 resume. Having any SOS numbers near 30 is always outstanding for a Group of 5 team, and three Top 40 wins will be solid. Cincinnati had the misfortunate of playing Houston and Tulsa cross-divisionally. If the Bearcats had played SMU or Navy, this resume could be even stronger.

Team	vs 1-10	vs 11-25	vs 26-40	vs 41-80	vs 81+	SOS Range	Wins over  +.500	Off YPP (rank)	Def YPP (rank)
Boise State	0-0	1-0	0-0	5-1	5-0	85-90	5	5.9 (38)	5.2 (39)

This pretty clearly shows why I have Cincinnati ahead of Boise State if the Bearcats can beat Memphis. Boise State has one ranked win (Air Force), which the Bearcats could match by beating Memphis. After that, Boise State has no wins of note, while Cincinnati has Top 40 wins over UCF and Temple. All in all, Boise State’s only claim to be ahead of Cincinnati is that the Bearcats have two losses. And since the Bearcats played Ohio State, I don’t know how fair that is. I’m not saying to reward Cincinnati for playing the Buckeyes. I’m saying remove that game from the equation entirely. Because when you do, and then you compare the resumes, it’s not even close.