With two weeks remaining in the regular season, seven teams are still alive for a spot in the conference title game.
San Diego State is in the driver’s seat for one of those spots at the moment, but a lot can change over the next two weekends.
With a win this week, the Aztecs could lock up one of those spots, but they would need some help to do so. In addition to knocking off San Jose State, SDSU would also need losses by Fresno State, New Mexico, and Boise State.
That is a lot of “ands”. . . And I think we go into the final weekend of the year with both spots still in the air. Heading into this weekend, the possibility is there for a seven-way tie at 5-3 in the league.
Could anything be more fitting this season? Bring on the chaos, I am here for it! And why not let everyone see the upheaval?
You got it. All 12 conference squads are in action this week, with five of the six matchups airing nationally.
Here is a look at the six-game MW slate.
Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors at UNLV Rebels
Friday, November 21
7:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: UNLV -3
Over/Under: 64.5
The last time the Rainbow Warriors were on the field, they put it to San Diego State. UH enters this short week after a bye week, with the Rebels having survived a scare from Utah State in double overtime last Saturday.
UNLV will need to get the ground game established early. The Rebels are running the ball for 208 yards per victory this season, almost 35 yards better per game than in their two defeats.
Hawaii has been solid against the run this season, holding opponents to just 132.5 yards per outing and 128.4 in their wins. Whichever team controls the line of scrimmage when UNLV has the ball will have an edge.
The Warriors will want to push the tempo more than UNLV. The Rebels will want to create takeaways. That and success in the run game could get Hawaii in uncomfortable situations.
The key for Hawaii on offense will be hitting some explosive plays. The Rebels have allowed 163 plays this season of 10+ yards, 130th in the nation, and their 60 plays allowed of 20+ yards are more than all but two teams in the country.
The real key in this game figures to be turnovers, though. UH is +5 in the turnover department in their seven wins this season and -9 in their three losses. UNLV’s 18 turnovers forced this season is tied for the 14th-most in the nation.
The Rebels have only produced two takeaways in their last three games. If UNLV is to hold serve at home, they will need to get back to their ball-hawking ways.
The Rebels have the home-field advantage, but Hawaii has been playing better football lately. UH gets a big road win on Friday.
Against the spread: Hawai’i
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Hawai’i
Nevada Wolf Pack at Wyoming Cowboys
Saturday, November 22
11:00 AM PT, MW Network
Line: Wyoming -6.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Nevada had scored 126 points in nine games entering last week, reaching the 20-point mark only twice this season, with a high-water mark of 22.
Then came the offensive explosion against San Jose State.
The Pack nearly doubled their season TD total in one game, finding the end zone seven times in the lopsided win.
And Nevada scored in all ways imaginable. In addition to the five offensive TDs, the defense got involved with a 66-yard interception return, and the special teams turned in a 99-yard kick return.
The big difference this week vs. last week will be Wyoming’s ability to play some defense. San Jose State is lacking in that phase of the game, but the Pack limited an explosive attack to just 10 points.
While the Cowboys bring a solid defense to the table week in and week out, UW is challenged a bit on the offensive side of things.
Nevada ranks 74th in the nation against the run. Samuel Tote Harris is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season having torched Fresno State at 8.5 yards per pop last game.
Look for a heavy dose on the ground for Wyoming.
The Cowboys have been excellent against the pass this season, but have had issues slowing teams down on the ground at times. UW will need to take Caleb Ramseur and the ground attack away. Make Carter Jones beat you with his arm.
The Cowboys grind this one out for a win.
Against the spread: Wyoming
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Wyoming
New Mexico Lobos at Air Force Falcons
Saturday, November 22
4:00 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: New Mexico -3.5
Over/Under: 55.5
This one is interesting because, at first glance, you would expect the game to be high-scoring, with both offenses producing and the defenses having their issues. However, the strength of the Lobos’ defense has been shutting down the run game.
New Mexico is 17th in the nation against the run this season, limiting opponents to just over 105 yards on the ground per outing.
The Falcons, of course, will lean heavily on the ground game as they always do. Air Force is currently third in the nation, running for 271.1 yards per contest.
The Falcons will certainly get their yards, but they might not come as easily as expected.
Air Force has gotten torched on defense this season, ranking 131st in the nation against the pass, and allowing almost 180 rushing yards per game.
Look for the Lobos to get the passing game going early and put this one away on the ground with their three-headed monster of rotating backs.
After and 0-2 start to conference play, the Lobos have now won four in a row, the longest active winning streak in the MW.
That streak will run to five, and the Lobos will enter the last week of the regular season with an eye towards a shot at the conference title game.
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: New Mexico
Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos
Saturday, November 22
4:00 PM PT, FS1
Line: Boise State -16.5
Over/Under: 44.5
The Rams have lost their last four games and have been outscored 121-46 during the losing streak.
The Colorado State passing attack has struggled all season, but during the current four-game slide, the running game has also been abysmal, going for just 73.6 yards per game.
And in the most recent loss to New Mexico, CSU was only able to produce 13 yards on the ground, averaging 0.5 yards per carry. The Rams did give up four sacks, but there was not a ton of success on the 21 other run plays either.
The offense will have its hands full with the Boise State defense this week. The Broncos limited SDSU to just 17 passing yards last week, their lowest total allowed since becoming an FBS member in 1996.
Boise State could take this game over on the defensive side of things.
BSU’s offense will lean heavy on the ground attack and produce against the Rams. The Broncos found moderate success on the ground against SDSU last time out, while the passing game was not a huge factor.
Max Cutforth was efficient, completing 12 of his 18 passes and not giving the ball away. This could be an opportunity for Boise State to open things up in the QBs second start.
The Broncos are experiencing a rare losing streak of their own, having dropped their last two games. That slide will not reach three.
Boise State will win going away.
Against the spread: Boise State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Boise State
Utah State Aggies at Fresno State Bulldogs
Saturday, November 22
7:30 PM PT, CBS Sports Network
Line: Fresno State -2.5
Over/Under: 51.5
Utah State enters the game having fallen last week to UNLV in double OT, but is among the slew of seven teams still with a chance at making the conference championship game.
For Fresno State, it is as simple as turnovers. The Bulldogs have been one of the most opportunistic teams in the nation this season, forcing 17 turnovers on the season, good enough for 24th in the nation.
The problem is that the Fresno offense has been just as charitable this season, giving the ball away 16 times. In the seven wins, they are +8 in the turnover department, but find themselves -7 in the three losses.
The Aggies enter with 12 turnovers forced on the year against just seven mishaps. If Carson Conklin makes some bad throws, the Aggies will make him pay.
The sophomore signal caller has done a good job of taking care of the ball in his last two games. In a pair of wins over Boise State and Wyoming, his completion percentage may not have been great, but the interceptions were at zero.
The Bulldogs have been on the good side of the scoreboard by a margin of 54-10 in those two wins combined.
The Fresno State defense has been stifling all season long, allowing just 289.2 yards of offense per game to rank 12th in the nation. In the last two games, they have lowered that total to 188.5 while limiting the foes to 89.5 yards passing in each win.
That defense will have its hands full this week with a prolific Utah State offense. The Aggies’ offense, led by Bryson Barnes, has put up big numbers with a lot of balance.
The QB is a big part of that balance, ranking 20th in the nation in individual total offense, rushing for 531 yards, and throwing for 2,352 on the season.
He has also taken care of the football with just three interceptions thrown this season, and none over the last two games.
The Bulldogs will use the home field to make just enough plays to get the win in this one.
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State
San Jose State Spartans at San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, November 22
7:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: San Diego State -11.5
Over/Under: 49.5
This San Diego State defense is every bit as good as advertised but could get tested by the Spartans high octane passing attack.
SJSU has the fourth most prolific passing attack in the nation but had a nightmarish performance against the Wolf Pack last weekend. They were limited to 145 yards through the air last week and threw four interceptions.
Walker Eget was on an amazing seven game stretch until the performance last week. I’d expect the QB to bounce back, but getting things right against the Aztecs is easier said than done.
The Aztec defense is fourth in the nation in pass efficiency defense and is allowing just 12.5 points per game. SDSU has produced 11 interceptions on the season, with eight of them coming in the last five games.
The Spartans have not run the ball well this season, and if San Diego State can key on the passing attack, it will be a long day for San Jose State.
SJSU has had a difficult time stopping opponents, and the ground attack of the Aztecs with Lucky Sutton could gobble up yards in bunches.
The Aztecs win and limit the Spartans’ offensive output.
Against the spread: San Diego State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State
