Last week, San Diego State allowed nearly as many points in their loss to Hawaii as they had in all of their conference games prior.
The Aztecs still control the league race, and can cement that claim with a win over Boise State at Snapdragon Stadium this weekend.
With a loss, Boise State moves into the seemingly revolving driver’s seat.
That leaves both Fresno State and Hawaii lurking, each with some advantages in certain tie-breaker scenarios.
The Warriors are off this week, while the Bulldogs look to avoid an upset at the hands of the opportunistic Cowboys of Wyoming.
All told, we have 11 MW teams in action in Week 12, with five conference matchups and Air Force stepping out of league play with a visit to a dangerous UConn team.
Here is a look at the six-game slate for the MW this week.
Air Force Falcons at UConn Huskies
Saturday, November 15
9:00 AM PT, CBS Sports
Line: UConn –7
Over/Under: 63.5
Yes, the Mountain West is wacky this season. But with that win over the Spartans, Air Force keeps their bowl hopes alive, even if it is only by a glimmer.
The Falcons can’t afford another misstep. This week, the Falcons step back out of conference with a trip to UConn.
The Huskies are 7-3 on the season, with all three of the losses coming in overtime. Needless to say, this one will be a big test for the Falcons.
Jim Mora’s squad has already picked up wins over Boston College and Duke, and one of the OT losses came at the hands of another ACC outfit, the Syracuse Orange.
While the Huskies have been very successful this season, a couple of their deficiencies could play into the hands of the visiting Falcons this week. UConn ranks 106th in rushing defense and 120th in opponents’ first downs.
The Air Force ground attack ranks second in the nation, averaging 269 yards per game. Long sustained drives will wear out the Huskies defense and, perhaps more importantly, keep the UConn offense off the field.
The Huskies are 18th nationally in total offense and can strike in a hurry. They have totaled 27 scrimmage plays of 30+ yards this season, 11th-most in the nation, and have 16 plays that have gained 40+ yards.
UConn does not need a lot of time to score.
Look for points to be put up by both teams, but UConn’s quick strike offense might be too much for the Falcons in this one.
Against the spread: UConn
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: UConn
Colorado State Rams at New Mexico Lobos
Saturday, November 15
12:00 PM PT, MW Network
Line: New Mexico –14.5
Over/Under: 53.5
The Lobos had a drastically different outcome against UNLV than the Rams. The five-point win in Vegas a couple of weeks ago got UNM to bowl eligibility, and Jason Eck has this team playing some excellent football this season.
Colorado State’s defense has struggled this season, playing even more poorly over the last three games. During that three-game slide, the Rams have allowed 7.25 yards per play while being outscored 101-29.
New Mexico is coming off a win over UNLV in which they averaged 9.67 yards per play. Against the Rebels, it was the passing game that did most of the damage. In this one, it could be the ground attack.
The Lobos have a three-headed monster in the backfield of Damon Bankston, Scottre Humphry, and DJ McKinney, all of whom have at least 74 carries this season.
They split the load evenly, and this week they all might get yards in bunches against a CSU run defense that is 121st in the nation, allowing 193.6 rushing yards per game.
The Lobos are 6-3, and two of those three losses came at Michigan and Boise State, a couple of places that are not easy to leave with wins for any team, let alone one just coming into its own.
The point is, this is a really good New Mexico team facing a Colorado State team that is not very good at all this season—and it will show on Saturday.
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: New Mexico
San Jose State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack
Saturday, November 15
12:30 PM PT, CBS Sports
Line: San Jose State –9.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Nevada enters this one having lost seven in a row, and the Pack have yet to knock off an FBS team during their 1-8 season.
One steady, consistent factor for San Jose State has been the play of Walker Eget. The senior QB had a bright spot in an otherwise dim season and leads the nation with 326.8 yards per game.
In his last seven games, he has been even better, averaging 349.9 passing yards per game with 15 TDs and a rating of 154.3.
This week, he will lead the high-powered Spartan offense against a Nevada team that allowed Utah State to throw for 377 yards in the last game.
Nevada has allowed 32.3 points per game over their last six; the Spartans should not have much trouble scoring points in this one.
San Jose State has had a hard time stopping anyone this year, as they are 118th in the nation in total defense and 132nd at stopping the pass.
The Wolf Pack are one of the worst teams in the nation at throwing the football. If the Pack can’t create any offense through the air in this one, it will be a very long afternoon.
San Jose State will dominate the game, which should look a lot like what most of us expected to see all seson.
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: San Jose State
Utah State Aggies at UNLV Rebels
Saturday, November 15
4:00 PM PT, CBS Sports
Line: UNLV –6
Over/Under: 71.5
As evident from the scores from last week, both teams can light up the scoreboard. The defensive stats were a bit misleading, however. Their points allowed had more to do with their opponents’ weaknesses than their defensive strengths.
Both the Aggies and Rebels are among the bottom 16 nationally in total defense.
Third downs will be a huge key: The Aggies, despite their offensive output, have converted on just 33.6% of their third downs this season, ranking 118th nationally.
UNLV has bent a bunch this season, but has rarely broken on third down. UNLV is third-best in the nation in third-down defense, allowing a conversion rate of just 26.2%.
The Rebels have also been better at creating turnovers this season than the Aggies.
With a win on Saturday, Utah State would be bowl eligible for the 12th time in the last 15 years. USU will have two more chances to reach the six-win mark, and they are going to need them.
There will be a lot of points scored in this one, by both teams, but the home team will do enough to get the win. The Aggies will keep it close and cover, but the Rebels get the win.
Against the spread: Utah State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: UNLV
Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, November 15
7:30 PM PT, CBS Sports
Line: San Diego State –3
Over/Under: 41.5
Despite the setback for the Aztecs, this one still features the top two teams in the conference standings.
The Broncos will look to lean heavily on the run game with the injury to Maddox Madson, forcing Max Cutforth into the starting role. Cutforth struggled in Boise’s loss to Fresno State two weeks ago, completing less than 50% of his pass attempts.
Establishing things on the ground against the Aztecs is easier said than done. SDSU is currently 10th in the nation against the run, allowing just 93.1 yards per game.
Even in allowing more yardage than normal in their two losses, to Washington State and Hawaii, they still held both teams to under four yards per carry.
In both cases, the Warriors and Cougars were able to throw the ball well, and that opened things up on the ground. Boise State may not be able to replicate the same passing numbers without Madson.
The Aztecs also struggled to get the ground game going in their two losses this season. Lucky Sutton has averaged over 104 yards per game in the Aztecs’ seven wins this season, while getting just 83 rushing yards per outing in the two defeats.
The Broncos have struggled to stop teams on the ground, ranking 88th in the nation against the run. The Broncos have allowed over 175 yards on the ground four times this season.
Look for the Aztecs to shut down the Broncos offense while grinding it out on the ground. SDSU gets a stronghold on the conference lead with a win over the Broncos.
Against the spread: San Diego State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: San Diego State
Wyoming Cowboys at Fresno State Bulldogs
Saturday, November 15
7:30 PM PT, FS1
Line: Fresno State –3.5
Over/Under: 40.5
With the Broncos facing a tough task, the Bulldogs can take control of things by taking care of their business down the stretch.
That task starts this week with a visit from Wyoming. And to get the win at home, the turnover prone Bulldogs will need to take care of the football.
Wyoming has created 13 takeaways this season and their nine interceptions are the 32nd most in the country. Fresno State QBs have thrown 11 interceptions, more than all but eight teams nationally.
If Frenso State can take care of the football, they should have little trouble with the Cowboys. In their three conference wins this season, the Bulldogs have a turnover margin of +9 with 11 takeaway.
In the two league losses, Fresno State has given the ball up six times with a turnover margin of –4 in the two games combined.
I think the Bulldogs will avoid turnovers and take care of the Cowboys in a game that stays low scoring but sees Fresno State pull away late.
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Fresno State
